CNBC news agency survey results say oil prices are expected to rise to an average of US $ 50 per barrel in the IV quarter of this year. Respondents expect the role of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in maintaining prices above the US $ 50 per barrel. They assess the price increase depends on the realization of the OPEC meeting results to cut production from the end of November.
This survey involved 31 respondents consisting of analysts, economists, and commodity exports. The results of a published survey said the respondents predicted the average price of crude oil of US $ 49.6 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2016, or an increase compared to the US $ 47 per barrel on average in the third quarter.
On September 28, OPEC agreed to cut oil production to 32.5 million barrels per day. At present, the OPEC production range is 33-33.2 million barrels per day. Pemotomgan will be the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.
According to Johannes Benigni, an analyst with JBC Energy, although the OPEC agreement at the end of September was only temporary, it gave a positive sentiment to raise oil prices by 10 percent. Benchmark prices for crude oil reached their highest level in the past year on October 10, which was 51.38 per barrel.
"OPEC has succeeded in providing short-term positive sentiment,"
Most respondents rated OPEC as having difficulties in realizing their commitments. An analyst from Commerz bank, Eugen Weinberg, said the agreement to cut OPEC's production was only profitable in the short term, but detrimental later. Because rising oil prices will provide incentives for non-OPEC oil-producing countries to increase supply in the market.
This condition will push back the market balance in the second half of 2017. OPEC member countries held a meeting in Istanbul, Turkey, on Wednesday local time. Reuters news agency said the ministers of OPEC countries had arrived in Turkey since Tuesday. The meeting will discuss the details of the agreement on production for at least six months, along with Russian support for the plan.
Last month the OPEC meeting was held in Algeria. OPEC has 14 members, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Venezuela. Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy, Khalid al-Falih, said there were many countries outside OPEC that were willing to join the plan.
"We are not only talking about support, but also the issue of contribution. Representatives of OPEC and non-OPEC countries are scheduled to attend. Among them were representatives of Russia, Azerbaijan and Mexico.
Mohammed Barkindo
OPEC Secretary-General, Mohammed Barkindo, said whatever agreement would be reached would be valid for six months and then be re-evaluated.
"We are sure that non-OPEC countries will join us. Because it benefits everyone ".
Eulogio Del Pino
Eulogio Del Pino, Venezuelan Oil Minister, hoped that the agreement would be valid for a year. Because of the peak production of oil-producing countries varies in time. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the decline in global oil supply could go hand in hand with demand if OPEC and Russia agreed to cut production significantly. But it is unclear how quickly the decline in production could accompany the decline in demand.
Koran Tempo, Page-18, Thursday, Oct 13, 2016
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