Prediksi cuaca dan laporan kenaikan permintaan jadi pendongkrak utama harga gas alam. Analis pun optimistis hingga akhir tahun, harga masih bisa terus naik hingga US$ 3,50 per mmbtu. Mengutip Bloomberg, Selasa (15/11) pukul 15.45 WIB, harga gas alam kontrak pengiriman Desember 2016 di New York Mercantile Exchange naik 2,18% dibandingkan harga Senin menjadi US$ 2,80 per mmbtu. Dalam Sepekan terakhir, harga melesat 6,46%. Data Energy Information Administration (EIA) menunjukkan, permintaan gas di Amerika Serikat (AS) Oktober 2016 naik 2,2 miliar kaki kubik menjadi 71,4 miliar kaki kubik dibanding Oktober 2015.
The Weather Company memprediksi, suhu udara dingin akan menyelimuti mayoritas Wilayah timur AS hingga pekan depan. Dengan suhu udara yang dingin, kebutuhan akan gas alam bisa terus meningkat. Keadaan ini mendukung aksi beli pelaku pasar. Apalagi akhir pekan lalu harga gas alam sempat terpuruk ke level terendah sejak Maret 2016. Alhasil, terjadi aksi bargain hunting yang mendukung kenaikan harga. Hanya saja sentimen negatif tetap mengintai harga gas alam.
Pasalnya, EIA melaporkan stok mingguan AS naik 54 miliar menjadi 4,01 triliun kaki kubik dibanding pekan sebelumnya. Ini pula yang membuat Andri memprediksi hari ini (16/11) harga gas alam berpotensi turun. Apalagi, beberapa meteorologist di AS memprediksi masih ada indikasi suhu udara hangat di sekitar 48 negara bagian AS hingga akhir bulan ini.
Artinya kenaikan permintaan mungkin belum setinggi harapan pasar, karena masih dibayangi juga oleh cuaca panas. Rencana Presiden AS Donald Trump yang akan menggiatkan aktivitas tambang batubara turut menjadi sentimen negatif pada harga gas alam. Meski demikian, ini belum tentu terealisasi. Andri optimistis hingga akhir 2016 harga gas alam berpotensi naik. Bisa mencapai US$ 3,50 per mmbtu. Dari sisi teknikal, harga saat ini bergerak di bawah moving average (MA) 50 dan MA 100 tapi sudah ada di atas MA 200, sehingga potensi koreksi hanya akan sementara.
Indikator relative strength index (RSI) yang di atas level 50 juga mendukung naik. Stochastic dan garis moving average convergence divergence (MACD) berada di area negatif yang mendukung penurunan. Andri memprediksi harga gas alam hari ini bergerak dikisaran US$ 2,60-US$ 2,90 per mmbtu. Sepekan ke depan, harga bergerak di kisaran US$ 2,50-US$ 3,00 per mmbtu.
IN ENGLISH
Natural Gas Prices Getting Heat
Weather predictions and report a rise in demand so the main booster of natural gas prices. Analysts also optimistic until the end of the year, prices could still continue to rise to US $ 3.50 per mmbtu. According to Bloomberg, Tuesday (15/11) at 15:45 pm, the price of natural gas delivery contract in December 2016 at the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.18% compared to prices on Monday to US $ 2.80 per mmbtu. In Last week, the price shot of 6.46%. Data Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that gas demand in the United States (US) in October 2016 increased 2.2 billion cubic feet to 71.4 billion cubic feet compared to October 2015.
The Weather Company predicts, the cold temperatures will cover the majority of the US eastern region until next week. With the cold temperatures, the need for natural gas could continue to rise. This situation supports buying market participants. Moreover, last week natural gas prices had slumped to its lowest level since March 2016. As a result, going bargain hunting, which support the price increase. Only negative sentiment still lurk in natural gas prices.
Because the EIA reported US weekly stocks rose 54 billion cubic feet to 4.01 trillion compared to the previous week. It also makes Andri predict today (16/11) in natural gas prices may drop. Moreover, some meteorologists in the US predict there are indications warm air temperatures around 48 US states until the end of this month.
This means that the increase in demand may not have as high expectations of the market, because it is still overshadowed by the weather too hot. US President Donald Trump plans that will invigorate the coal mining activities have contributed to the negative sentiment on the price of natural gas. However, this is not necessarily realized. Andri optimistic until the end of 2016 the price of natural gas has the potential to rise. Could reach US $ 3.50 per mmbtu. From the technical side, the current price is moving below the moving average (MA) 50 and MA 100 but is already on top of the 200, so that the potential correction would be only temporary.
Indicators relative strength index (RSI) is at the top level 50 also supports the ride. Stochastic and the line moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is in the negative area that supports the decline. Andri predict natural gas prices today moved the range of US $ 2.60-US $ 2.90 per mmbtu. The next week, the price moves in the range of US $ 2.50-US $ 3.00 per mmbtu.
Kontan, Page 7, Wednesday, 16 Nop 2016
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