Pada penutupan perdagangan Jumat (18/11) harga minyak West Texas lntermediate (WTI) kontrak Desember 2016 naik 0,27 poin atau 0,89% menjadi US$ 4S,69 per barel. Sementara itu, harga minyak Brent kontrak Januari 2016 meningkat 0,37 poin atau 0,8% menjadi US$46,86 per barel. Harga minyak telah merosot selama dua bulan terakhir di tengah skeptisme pasar tentang kemampuan OPEC mencapai kesepakatan pembatasan produksi pada rapat 30 November di Wina, Austria.
Organisasi itu sebelumnya berusaha memangkas produksi untuk pertama kalinya dalam 8 tahun terakhir di Aljazair pada bulan lalu. Iran dianggap menjadi batu sandungan utama dalam mencapai kesepakatan. Produsen kedua terbesar OPEC ini tetap ingin memacu produksi untuk mengembalikan pasarnya yang hilang setelah pencabutan sanksi ekspor pada Januari 2016. Namun, beberapa menteri perminyakan dari negara-negara yang tergabung dalam OPEC bertemu di Doha, Qatar pada Jumat (17/11).
Salah satu sumber mengatakan organisasi itu menginginkan tingkat produksi Iran di sekitar 3,6 juta-3.7 juta barel per hari. Sebelumnya Iran menginginkan pembekuan produksi hanya dilakukan jika penambangan minyak mentah mereka berada di posisi 4 juta-4,2 juta barel per hari. Namun, sumber lain berpendapat OPEC mengusulkan pembatasan produksi Iran sebesar 3,92 juta barel per hari. Khalid Al-Falih, Menteri Perminyakan Arab Saudi, menyampaikan pertemuan pada Jumat lalu berjalan dengan baik.
Bila OPEC berhasil mencapai kesepakatan pada rapat 30 November, maka negara produsen minyak non-OPEC seperti Rusia dapat ikut bekerja sama menstabilkan pasar. Alexander Novak, Menteri Energi Rusia, mengatakan OPEC semakin mendekati kesepakatan. Jika kesepakatan tersebut dapat dicapai, maka Rusia siap bergabung untuk membekukan produksi selama enam bulan bahkan lebih. Bill O’Grady, Chief Market Strategist Confluence Investment Management, menyampaikan harga minyak mentah berhasil mencapai kenaikan mingguan pertama sejak pertengahan Oktober akibat optimisme pasar terhadap kesepakatan OPEC pada akhir November.
Menurutnya, pembicaraan mengenai pemotongan produksi merupakan faktor utama yang mendukung harga dalam beberapa bulan terakhir. Adanya kesepakatan internal OPEC dan keikutsertaan Rusia mengindikasikan perjanjian mengurangi suplai bakal terwujud. Harga minyak mentah telah merosot parah dari US$ 52 per barel saat kesepakatan pembekuan produksi pada 28 September di Aljazair. Namun, kerumitan membangun komitmen di internal OPEC membuat harga terus tertekan.
Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst FXTM, mengatakan OPEC telah berulang kali mengeksploitasi sensitivitas harga minyak untuk membuat lonjakan harga spekulatif. Namun hal ini mungkin harus dibayar mahal apabila investor kembali dikecewakan. Masalah surplus suplai masih tetap membebani harga minyak. Di sisi lain, kekhawatiran akan kemungkinan menurunnya permintaan akibat perlambatan pertumbuhan global dapat menahan peningkatan harga. Dari sudut pandang teknikal, bearish dapat kembali berkuasa apabila WTI merosot ke bawah US$ 4S per barel. Pasar rentan melakukan aksi jual karena OPEC belum berhasil memastikan perubahan hasil produksi.
IN ENGLISH
The Oil Price Escalates
At the close of trade on Friday (18/11) lntermediate price of West Texas oil (WTI) contract in December 2016 was up 0.27 points, or 0.89%, to US $ 4S, 69 per barrel. Meanwhile, the price of Brent oil contract in January 2016 rose 0.37 points, or 0.8%, to US $ 46.86 per barrel. Oil prices have plummeted over the past two months amid market skepticism about OPEC's ability to reach agreement on production restrictions 30 November meeting in Vienna, Austria.
The organization has previously attempted to cut production for the first time in the last 8 years in Algeria last month. Iran is considered to be the main stumbling block in reaching an agreement. OPEC's second largest producer still wants to spur production to restore the lost market after the lifting of sanctions exports in January 2016. However, some oil ministers from countries belonging to the OPEC meeting in Doha, Qatar on Friday (17/11).
One source said the organization wants Iranian production levels at around 3.6 million-3.7 million barrels per day. Previous Iran wants a freeze on production is only done if the crudes they were in position 4 million to 4.2 million barrels per day. However, other sources believe OPEC production restrictions proposed Iran amounted to 3.92 million barrels per day. Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister, convey a meeting on Friday went well.
When OPEC meeting reached an agreement on Nov. 30, then the state non-OPEC oil producers like Russia to participate in cooperation to stabilize the market. Alexander Novak, Russian Energy Minister, said OPEC is getting closer to a deal. If such an agreement can be reached, then Russia is ready to join to freeze production for six months or more. Bill O'Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management, delivering the crude oil price reached its first weekly gain since mid-October due to market optimism of the OPEC agreement in late November.
According to him, talk of production cuts are the main factors supporting prices in recent months. Their internal agreement and the participation of Russia indicates OPEC reduces supply agreement will be realized. Crude oil prices have slumped severely from US $ 52 per barrel when the deal freezing production on Sept. 28 in Algeria. However, the complexity of building internal commitment in OPEC made the price kept depressed.
Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst FXTM, said OPEC has repeatedly exploiting the sensitivity of oil prices to create speculative price hikes. However this may be costly if investors again let down. Supply surplus problems still weigh on oil prices. On the other hand, concerns about the possibility of declining demand due to slowing global growth can withstand increased prices. From a technical standpoint, bearish can return to power if the WTI slipped to below $ 4S barrel. The market is vulnerable to sell because OPEC has not managed to ensure a change of the production.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-8, Monday, Nov, 21-2016
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