Kabar baik berhembus dari negara-negara penghasil minyak. Tampaknya, niatan negara-negara yang tergabung dalam Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) memangkas produksi minyaknya bisa berjalan lancar. Menjelang pertemuan OPEC akhir bulan ini, sejumlah anggota OPEC memberi pernyatan positif yang mengembalikan kepercayaan pasar. Misalnya, Menteri Energi Aljazair Noureddine Boutarfa menyatakan optimismenya atas keberhasilan rencana pemangkasan minyak tersebut.
Hal ini ia ungkapkan pasca bertemu Menteri Energi Rusia Alexander Novak, yang menegaskan, Rusia tengah mempertimbangkan membekukan produksi minyaknya. Produksi minyak di negeri Beruang Merah ini di November diperkirakan meneapai 11,2 juta barel per hari. Menteri Perminyakan Iran Bijan Namdar Zanganeh juga yakin pemangkasan produksi bakal berjalan. Bahkan, Iran siap ikut serta. Negara di Timur Tengah ini berjanji mengurangi produksi sekitar 1,3 juta barel per hari. Hal ini menjadi angin segar bagi harga minyak.
Sebelumnya Iran menentang pembatasan produksi. Tak heran, harga minyak internasional terus melesat. Menurut Research & Analyst SoeGee Futures Nizar Hilmy, pidato Gubemur The Fed Janet Yellen pun tidak akan signifikan menahan laju kenaikan harga minyak bumi. Kalau OPEC benar memangkas produksi, maka harga minyak bisa kembali naik. Research & Analyst Monex Investindo Futures Agus Chandra sepakat, pertemuan OPEC di Wina Austria pada 30 November 2016 menjadi penentu arah harga minyak.
Jika OPEC menyepakati produksi minyak dibatasi hingga 32,5 juta barel per hari, maka harga minyak bakal terus naik. Mengutip Bloomberg, Jumat (18/11), harga minyak mentah WTI kontrak pengiriman Desember 2016 di New York Mercantile Exchange menguat 0,59% menjadi US$ 45,69 per barel. Dalam sepekan terakhir harganya melesat 5,25%. Teknikal masih bearish, Tapi analis mengingatkan, sentimen penguatan dollar AS masih berpeluang menekan harga minyak.
Apalagi, akhir pekan lalu, indeks dollar AS berhasil menembus level tertingginya tahun ini, di 101,21. Nizar memprediksi, harga minyak bisa mencapai US$ 50 per bare] jika kesepakatan terjadi. Sentimen kenaikan suku bunga The Fed dan penguatan dollar AS juga tidak akan berdampak bila produksi minyak benar-benar dipangkas. Tapi jika sebaliknya, harga minyak bisa terseret ke bawah US$ 40 per barel. Secara teknikal, harga minyak sebenarnya masih menunjukkan tren bearish jangka pendek.
lni terlihat dari MA 10 yang ada di bawah MA 25. Nizar memprediksi hari ini (21/1 1) minyak akan bergerak di kisaran US$ 44-USS 48 per barel. Sedangkan menurut hitungan Agus, dalam sepekan ke depan harga minyak akan berada di rentang US$ 43US$ 47,25 per barel.
IN ENGLISH
Price Increase, Production Provided Trimmed
Good news blows from oil-producing countries. Apparently, the intention of the countries that are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut oil production to run smoothly. Ahead of an OPEC meeting later this month, some OPEC members gave a positive statement that restore market confidence. For example, Algerian Energy Minister Noureddine Boutarfa expressed optimism on the success of the oil cuts plan.
This he expressed after meeting Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, who asserted that Russia is considering a freeze on oil production. Oil production in the country Red Bear accomplishing this in November to 11.2 million barrels per day. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh also believe production cuts will run. In fact, Iran is ready to participate. Middle Eastern countries have pledged to cut production of about 1.3 million barrels per day. This is cool for the oil price.
Previous Iran opposes restrictions on production. Not surprisingly, the international oil prices continue racing. According to Research & Futures Analyst Nizar SoeGee Rithy, speeches Fed Governor Janet Yellen will not significantly curb the increase in petroleum prices. If true OPEC cut production, oil prices could go back up. Research & Futures Analyst Monex Investindo Agus Chandra agreed, the OPEC meeting in Vienna Austria on 30 November 2016 determines the direction of oil prices.
If OPEC agreed on oil production capped at 32.5 million barrels per day, oil prices will continue to rise. According to Bloomberg, Friday (18/11), the price of WTI crude oil contract in December 2016 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.59% to US $ 45.69 per barrel. In the past week the price is bolted 5.25%. Technically still bearish, but analysts warn, the strengthening US dollar sentiment is still likely push oil prices.
Moreover, last week, the US dollar index broke through its highest level this year, at 101.21. Nizar predicts that oil prices could reach US $ 50 per bare] if the deal happens. Sentiment The Fed's interest rate hikes and the strengthening of the US dollar will not affect when oil production actually trimmed. But if on the contrary, oil prices could be dragged down US $ 40 per barrel. Technically, the price of oil is still showing a short-term bearish trend.
It's visible from the MA 10 that is below the MA 25. Nizar predicts today (21/1 1) the oil will move in the range of US $ 44-USS 48 per barrel. Meanwhile, according to a count Agus, in the next week the price of oil will be in the range of US $ 43US $ 47.25 per barrel.
Kontan, Page-4, Monday, Nov, 21-2016
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