Pada perdagangan Senin (12/12) pukul 16:58 WIB harga minyak WTI kontrak Januari 2017 berada di posisi US$ 53,89 per barel, naik 2,39 poin atau 4,64%. Sementara minyak Brent kontrak Februari 2017 bertengger di US$ 56,73 per barel, meningkat 2,4 poin atau 4,42%. Dalam rapat OPEC di Wina, Austria, pada 30 November, organisasi memutuskan pemangkasan produksi sebesar 1,2 juta barel per hari menjadi 32,5 juta barel per hari mulai awal 2017.
Pasar menyambut baik rencana ini sehingga melejitkan harga. Arab Saudi memotong sekitar 486.000 barel per hari sebagai upaya mengakhiri surplus pasar. Pada Oktober 2016, pentolan OPEC itu menghasilkan 10,63 juta barel per. hari. Selanjutnya pada 10 Desember. anggota OPEC dan negara produsen minyak non anggota mencapai kesepakatan menahan suplai untuk pertama kalinya sejak 2001. Pengurangan produksi ini bertujuan mengendalikan kelebihan pasokan di pasar sekaligus menstabilkan harga minyak. Para produsen non OPEC sepakat memangkas suplai baru hingga 558.000 barel per hari. Sebelumnya, OPEC menginginkan agar negara non anggota bisa memotong hingga 600.000 barel per hari.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., dalam risetnya memaparkan penandatanganan kesepakatan Setelah proses perdebatan hampir setahun antara OPEC dan negara non anggota seperti Rusia berhasil mengerek harga. Kini, pasar akan berfokus kepada kepatuhan terhadap perjanjian tersebut. “Kami percaya tindakan OPEC dan non OPEC memangkas produksi diperlukan untuk mendukung kenaikan harga minyak secara berkelanjutan,” papar Goldman. Goldman mengestimasi bila kesepakatan terealisasi, maka harga minyak WTI mencapai US$ 55 per barel pada semester I/2017.
Perkiraan ini mencerminkan adanya pemotongan produksi sebesar 1 juta-1,6 juta barel per hari secara global. Sebetulnya, harga bisa saja menembus level US$60 per barel. Namun, masih ada proyeksi tingginya harga dapat menggoda negara produsen untuk kembali memacu suplai, khususnya Amerika Serikat. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) dalam laporan proyeksinya memaparkan rerata produksi minyak AS pada, 2016 menjadi 8,86 juta barel per hari, dibandingkan dengan riset periode November sebesar 8,84 juta barel per hari. Sementara pada 2017, proyeksi dinaikkan menuju 8,78 juta barel per hari dari sebelumnya 8,73 juta barel per hari.
Sementara kesepakatan pembatasan produksi membuat rerata harga minyak WTI pada 2.016 sebesar US$ 43 per barel menjadi US$ 52 per barel pada 2017. Sepanjang November, rerata harga WTI ialah US$ 45,76 per barel. Perusahaan manajemen aset AB Bernstein menyampaikan kesepakatan pemotongan produksi rata-rata sekitar 1,76 juta barel per hari, telah melibatkan 24 negara. Mereka menghasilkan 52,6 juta barel per hari atau 54% pasokan global.
Setelah pemangkasan produksi dilakukan pada awal 2017, secara bertahap pasar minyak akan mengalami defisit dari surplus sebelumnya. Defisit pasar akan bergerak menuju 800.000 barel per hari pada paruh pertama tahun depan. Wahyu Tribowo Laksono, Analis Central Capital Futures, mengatakan kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi antara OPEC dan negara produsen minyak lainnya setelah 15 tahun berhasil membuat reli harga.
Dalam jangka pendek, harga mengalami tren bullish. Dalam jangka menengah, harga minyak mentah akan bergerak dalam kisaran US$ 50-US$ 60 per barel. Adapun dalam jangka pendek level US$ 55 dan US$55 per barel menjadi target berikutnya. Meski berpeluang mengalami reli panjang, harga minyak akan tersandung oleh pengerekan suku bunga Federal Reserve pada 14 Desember. Pasalnya, kenaikan dolar AS dapat menekan permintaan minyak, sehingga komoditas ini mengalami sentimen negatif.
IN ENGLISH
Oil Prices Continue to Flare
In trading on Monday (12/12) at 16:58 pm the price of WTI oil contract in January 2017 is at US $ 53.89 per barrel, up 2.39 points, or 4.64%. While Brent oil contract in February 2017 at US $ 56.73 per barrel, up 2.4 points or 4.42%. In a meeting of OPEC in Vienna, Austria, on 30 November, the organization decided to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million barrels per day from the beginning of 2017.
The market welcomed this plan that bolsters the price. Saudi Arabia cut about 486,000 barrels per day in an effort to end the surplus market. In October 2016, the OPEC frontman produce 10.63 million barrels. day. Furthermore, on December 10. OPEC member and non-member oil producing countries reached an agreement withhold supply for the first time since 2001. The reduction is aimed at curbing excess supply in the market at the same time stabilize oil prices. The non-OPEC producers agreed to cut the supply of new up to 558,000 barrels per day. Earlier, OPEC wants non-members can be cut up to 600,000 barrels per day.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., in a research report describing the signing of the agreement After nearly a year of debate between OPEC and non-member countries such as Russia managed to hoist the price. Now, the market will focus on compliance with the agreement. "We believe the actions of OPEC and non-OPEC production cut is needed to support a sustained rise in oil prices," said Goldman. Goldman estimates that if the deal is realized, then the WTI oil price of $ 55 per barrel in the first half / 2017.
This estimate reflects a reduction of production by 1 million to 1.6 million barrels per day globally. Actually, the price could reach the level of US $ 60 per barrel. However, there are still projected high prices may tempt producers to re-stimulate the supply, especially the United States. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in a report describing the average forecast of US oil production in, 2016 be 8.86 million barrels per day, compared to the research period of November amounted to 8.84 million barrels per day. While in 2017, the projection was raised to the 8.78 million barrels per day from the previous 8.73 million barrels per day.
While an agreement restriction of production to make the average WTI oil price in 2016 of US $ 43 per barrel to US $ 52 per barrel in 2017. Throughout November, the average price of WTI was US $ 45.76 per barrel. AB asset management firm Bernstein expressed agreement to cut output by an average of about 1.76 million barrels per day, has involved 24 countries. They produced 52.6 million barrels per day or 54% of global supply.
After trimming production in early 2017, gradually the oil market will be in deficit from previous surpluses. Will move toward a market deficit of 800,000 barrels per day in the first half of next year. Tribowo Wahyu Laksono, Central Capital Futures analyst, said the production cuts agreement between OPEC and other oil producing countries after 15 years managed to make the price rally.
In the short term, prices experienced a bullish trend. In the medium term, crude oil prices will move in the range of US $ 50-US $ 60 per barrel. As for the short-term level of US $ 55 and US $ 55 per barrel to the next target. Although the chance of experiencing a long rally, oil prices will be tripped by pengerekan Federal Reserve interest rate on 14 December. Because the rise in the US dollar may depress demand for oil, so that these commodities experienced a negative sentiment.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16,Tuesday, Dec,13,2016
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