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Friday, December 16, 2016

Harga Minyak Tetap Panas


    Pada perdagangan Kamis (15/12) pukul 17.18 WIB harga minyak WTI kontrak Januari 2017 berada di posisi US$ 51,25 per barel, naik 0,21 poin atau 0,41 %. Sementara minyak Brent kontrak Februari 2017 bertengger di US$ 54,4 per barel, meningkat 0,52 poin atau 0,96%. Dalam rapat OPEC di Wina, Austria, pada 30 November, organisasi memutuskan pemangkasan produksi sebesar 1,2 juta barel per hari menjadi 32,5 juta barel per hari mulai awal 2017. Selanjutnya pada 10 Desember, anggota OPEC dan negara produsen minyak non anggota mencapai kesepakatan menahan suplai untuk pertama kalinya sejak 2001.

    Para produsen non OPEC sepakat memangkas suplai, baru hingga 558.000 barel per hari. Sebelumnya, OPEC menginginkan agar negara non anggota bisa memotong hingga 600.000 barel per hari; Namun, keputusan Federal Reserve mengerek suku bunga 25 basis poin membuat dolar AS melesat. Alhasil sentimen ini membuat proyeksi permintaan komoditas berdenominasi dolar AS melesu. Kemarin pada pukul 17.20 WIB, indeks dolar AS meningkat 0,76% atau 0,77 poin menuju 102,53. Ini menandakan angka sudah tumbuh 3,95% sepanjang tahun berjalan.
   
    Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist CMC Markets, mengatakan menguatnya dolar AS menjadi katalis jangka pendek agar investor melakukan aksi jual terhadap minyak. Padahal sentimen bullish masih menopang fundamental. Data US Energy Information Administration (EIA) yang dirilis Rabu (14/12) menunjukkan stok minyak mentah AS per Jumat (9/12) turun 2,56 juta barel menuju 483,19 juta barel. Sementara itu tingkat produksi naik sebesar 9.900 barel peg hari menjadi 8,79 juta barel per hari. “Ada reaksi awal untuk bullish setelah rilis data EIA, tetapi menguatnya dolar AS berpotensi mengubah itu.

    Perusahaan investasi Natixis dalam laporannya memaparkan, dalam jangka panjang faktor fundamental suplai dan permintaan akan menjadi tolak ukur utama harga minyak mentah. Rencana pengurangan produksi antara OPEC dan non organisasi bakal memegang peranan penting. Dengan asumsi Iran, Nigeria, dan Libya tetap memacu produksi, serta Indonesia membekukan keanggotaanya, total suplai baru OPEC pada Januari 2017 menjadi sebesar 33,03 juta barel per hari, Angka ini terkoreksi 1,16 juta barel per hari dari tingkat produksi Oktober 2016 sejumlah 33,83 juta barel per hari.

    Rerata total suplai minyak mentah pada 2017 ialah 97,42 juta barel per hari, naik 570.000 barel dari 2016 sebesar 86,85 juta barel per hari. Sementara tingkat permintaan di tahun depan tumbuh 1-,05 juta barel menuju 97,3 juta barel per hari dari sebelumnya 96,25 juta barel per hari. Surplus suplai tahun ini sebesar 600.000 barel per hari akan menipis ke 122.000 barel per hari, sehingga harga akan lebih baik," papar laporan, Rabu (14/12).

    Berdasarkan analisis fundamental Natixis, asumsi pengurangan produksi baru terasa pada pada kuartal ll/2017 karena triwulan pertama surplus suplai masih membayangi. Oleh karena itu, rerata harga tahun depan untuk WTI ialah US$62,8 per barel dan Brent US$64,5 per barel. Bertumbuhnya permintaan pada tahun depan juga ditunjang proyeksi perbaikan ekonomi global. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia diperkirakan meningkat 3% pada 2017 dan 3,3% pada 2018, dibandingkan 2018 yang 2,8%.

    Pertumbuhan permintaan paling tinggi berasal dari India. Konsumsi minyak Negeri Hindustan naik 11,6% yoy sepanjang 10 bulan penama 2016 karena ditopang penyerapan bensin 12,6% yoy dan bahan bakar diesel 5,7% yoy Dengan asumsi PDB India 2017 naik 0,1% menuju 7,6%, maka permintaan minyak juga meningkat 7% yoy atau 275.000 barel per hari. Sementara itu, PDB China tahun depan bakal stabil di level 6,7%, dan permintaan minyak tumbuh 2% yoy atau 208.000 barel per hari. Amerika Serikat diprediksi mencatatkan peningkatan PDB tertinggi, yakni 2,3% pada 2017 dari tahun sebelumnya 1,5 %. Konsumsi minyak naik 1% yoy atau 210.000 barel per hari.

IN ENGLISH

Oil Prices Remain Hot


    In trading on Thursday (15/12) at 17:18 pm the price of WTI oil contract in January 2017 is at US $ 51.25 per barrel, up 0.21 points, or 0.41%. While Brent oil contract in February 2017 at US $ 54.4 per barrel, up 0.52 points, or 0.96%. In a meeting of OPEC in Vienna, Austria, on 30 November, the organization decided to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million barrels per day from the beginning of 2017. Furthermore, on December 10, members of OPEC and the oil producing countries non members reach withhold supply agreement for the first time since 2001.

    The non-OPEC producers agreed to cut the supply of new, up to 558,000 barrels per day. Earlier, OPEC wants non-members can be cut up to 600,000 barrels per day; However, the decision of the Federal Reserve hoisted interest rates 25 basis points to make the US dollar shot. As a result of this sentiment makes the projected demand for dollar-denominated commodities become slow. Yesterday at 17:20 GMT, the US dollar index gained 0.76% or 0.77 points towards 102.53. It signifies the number had grown to 3.95% throughout the year.

    Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, said strong US dollar to a short-term catalyst that investors were forced to sell the oil. Though the bullish sentiment still sustains fundamental. Data US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday (14/12) showed crude oil stockpiles per Friday (9/12) fell 2.56 million barrels to the 483.19 million barrels. While the rate of production increased by 9,900 barrels a day to peg at 8.79 million barrels per day. "There's the initial reaction to bullish after the release of the EIA data, but the strengthening of the US dollar has the potential to change that.

    Natixis investment company explained in its report, in the long term fundamentals of supply and demand will be the main benchmark crude oil prices. The planned reduction of production among OPEC and non organizations will play an important role. Assuming Iran, Nigeria, and Libya remain spur production, and Indonesia suspended its membership, total new supply of OPEC in January 2017 amounted to 33.03 million barrels per day, this figure declined 1.16 million barrels per day of production levels in October 2016 a number of 33.83 million barrels per day.

    Average total crude oil supply in 2017 was 97.42 million barrels per day, up 570,000 barrels from 2016 amounted to 86.85 million barrels per day. While the level of demand in the next year to grow 1-, 05 million barrels to the 97.3 million barrels per day from the previous 96.25 million barrels per day. Surplus supply this year by 600,000 barrels per day will be thinned to 122,000 barrels per day, so the price will be better, "said the report, on Wednesday (14/12).

    Natixis is based on fundamental analysis, assuming a reduction in new production in the quarter was at ll / 2017 for the first quarter of the supply surplus is still looming. Therefore, next year the average price for WTI was US $ 62.8 per barrel and Brent US $ 64.5 per barrel. The growing demand in the next year also supported the projected global economic recovery. World economic growth is expected to rise 3% in 2017 and 3.3% in 2018, compared to 2018 of 2.8%.

    The highest growth in demand from India. State Hindustan Oil consumption rose 11.6% yoy during the 10 months of 2016 as sustained absorption renamer 12.6% yoy gasoline and diesel fuel by 5.7% yoy Assuming India's GDP rose 0.1% in 2017 towards 7.6%, then oil demand also increased by 7% yoy, or 275,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, China's GDP next year will be steady at 6.7%, and demand for oil grew 2% yoy, or 208,000 barrels per day. United States is predicted to record the highest increase in GDP, ie 2.3% in 2017 from 1.5% the previous year. Oil consumption rise up 1% yoy, or 210,000 barrels per day.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Friday, Dec,16,2016

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