Rencana pemangkasan produksi minyak oleh Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) masih menghangatkan harga minyak mentah. Ada kecemasan pemangkasan produksi tak bisa berjalan sesuai rencana. Mengutip Bloomberg, Kamis (8/12) pukul 18.03 WIB, harga minyak WTI kontrak pengiriman Januari 2017 di New York Mercantile Exchange menguat 1,04% dibandingkan dengan hari sebelumnya menjadi US$ 50,29 per barel.
Tapi sepekan terakhir, harga minyak masih minus 1,51%. Nizar Hilmy, analis SoeGee Futures, mengatakan, penguatan harga minyak terjadi karena stok minyak Amerika Serikat (AS) turun. Di November lalu, stok turun minyak hingga 2,4 juta barel. Padahal di Oktober lalu, penurunan stok minyak mentah hanya 0,9 juta barel saja. “Tapi di sisi lain, pengiriman minyak mentah di Oklahoma justru meningkat. Energy Information and Administration AS merilis, pengiriman minyak mentah dari terminal Oklahoma meningkat 3,4 juta barel.
Ini rekor kenaikan sejak tahun 2009. Kendati demikian, minyak mampu mempertahankan penguatan harga. Deddy Yusuf Siregar, analis Asia Tradepoint Futures, menambahkan, permintaan minyak mentah mulai meningkat. Impor China naik dari titik terendah sembilan bulan terakhir. Selama November, impor minyak naik dari 6,87 juta barel per hari menjadi 7,97 juta barrel per hari. “Permintaan China naik menjelang liburan imlek dan musim semi.
Deddy melihat saat ini harga minyak sedang terkonsolidasi jelang pertemuan OPEC 10 Desember hari ini. Meskipun sudah ada kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi, tapi Nigeria Sebagai penghasil minyak di Afrika justru berniat menambah produksi dari 1,2 juta barrel per hari menjadi 2,1 barrel per hari. “Ini menimbulkan kekhawatiran investor," kata Deddy. Nizar juga menilai keraguan pasar terhadap rencana pemangkasan produksi minyak oleh OPEC membesar jelang pertemuan 10 Desember. “Kemungkinannya harga lebih condong koreksi, kalaupun Lerjadi rebound hanya akan terjadi sesaat.
Deddy memprediksi harga minyak bergetak di rentang sempit, antara US$ 49,40-US$ 50,42. “Kalau hasilnya positif, ada peluang minyak kembali ke US$ 53,55 per barel. Sebaliknya kalau negatif bisa jatuh ke US$ 48,90 per barel," ujar Deddy. Prediksi Nizar, harga minyak akan berada pada rentang US$ 48-US$ 50 per barel. Sedangkan jika hasil pertemuan OPEC tersebut mempertagas rencana pemangkasan produksi, harga bisa menguat ke US$ 52 per barel.
Secara teknikal, Deddy melihat, harga minyak di atas moving average (MA) 50, MA 100 dan MA 200. MACD masih berada di area positif dan cenderung naik. Relative strength, index (RSI) berada di daerah positif. Namun stochastic cenderung turun ke 49. Secara teknikal, Deddy melihat harga minyak hari ini masih berada dalam tren bullish dengan peluang kenaikan terbatas.
IN ENGLISH
Ahead of the OPEC meeting, Oil Prices warm
Plan for oil production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil prices are still warm. There is concern production cuts could not go according to plan. According to Bloomberg, Thursday (8/12) at 18:03 pm, the price of WTI oil contract in January 2017 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.04% compared with the previous day to US $ 50.29 per barrel.
But last week, the oil price was minus 1.51%. Nizar Rithy, SoeGee Futures analyst, said the strengthening of oil prices came as oil stockpiles United States (US) down. In November, the stock fell to 2.4 million barrels of oil. In fact, in October, the decline in crude stocks up 0.9 million barrels. "But on the other hand, shipments of crude oil in Oklahoma has increased. And the US Energy Information Administration released, the delivery of crude oil from Oklahoma terminal rose 3.4 million barrels.
This is a record rise since 2009. Nevertheless, able to maintain the oil price hike. Deddy Yusuf Siregar, Asia Tradepoint Futures analyst, added that demand for crude oil began to rise. China's imports rose from the lowest point of the last nine months. During November, oil imports rose from 6.87 million barrels per day to 7.97 million barrels per day. "Chinese demand rose ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday and spring.
Deddy see the current oil prices are being consolidated December 10 ahead of OPEC meeting today. Although there is agreement production cuts, but Nigeria as an oil producer in Africa it intends to increase production from 1.2 million barrels per day to 2.1 barrels per day. "This raises concerns of investors," said Deddy. Nizar also assess the market doubts the planned cuts in oil production by OPEC enlarged ahead of the December 10 meeting. "Chances are more inclined price correction, if Lerjadi rebound will occur only for a moment.
Deddy bergetak predict oil prices in a narrow range, between US $ 49.40 to US $ 50.42. "If the results are positive, there is a chance the oil back to US $ 53.55 per barrel. Conversely, if negative could fall to US $ 48.90 per barrel, "said Deddy. Prediction Nizar, oil prices will be in the range of US $ 48-US $ 50 per barrel. Meanwhile, if the outcome of the OPEC meeting mempertagas plan production cuts, prices could rose to US $ 52 per barrel.
Technically, Deddy view, oil prices are above the moving average (MA) 50, MA 100 and MA 200. MACD is in the positive area and tends to rise. Relative strength, index (RSI) is in the positive region. However, the stochastic tends to fall to 49. Technically, Deddy see today's oil prices are still in a bullish trend with limited opportunities for advancement.
Kontan, Page-7,Friday,Dec,9,2016
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