Plans production cuts at the beginning of 2017 managed to heat up crude oil prices at the end of the year. the realization that action is needed to balance the market in the long term. On Friday's trade '(23/12) the price of WTI oil contracts in February 2017 is at US $ S3,02 per barrel, up 0.07 points, or 0.13%. Meanwhile, Brent oil contract last February 2017 at US $ 55.21 per barrel, up 1.19 points or 2.2%. Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, said the market rejoiced that OPEC pledged to cut supply and inventory.
This sentiment led to a more balanced oil market in 2017. "The big test will come after the New Year [2017], whether the producers to realize production cut agreement. Even tend optimistic, the market is still in doubt with the agreement of OPEC and non-OPEC. In the OPEC meeting in Vienna , Austria, on November 30, OPEC decided to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million barrels per day from the beginning of 2017. the market welcomed this plan that bolsters the price.
Saudi Arabia cut about 486,000 barrels per day in an effort to end the surplus market. In October 2016, the largest oil producer in OPEC it produces 10.63 million barrels per day. Furthermore, on December 10, 2016, members of OPEC and the oil producing countries non-members reached agreement withhold supply for the first time since 2001. The reduction is aimed at curbing excess supply in the market at the same time stabilize oil prices. The non-OPEC producers agreed to cut the supply of new up to 558,000 barrels per day, including Russia amounted to 300,000 barrels per day.
Earlier, OPEC wants non-member countries can cut up to 600,000 barrels per day. According to research by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., signing an agreement after nearly a year of debate between OPEC and non-member countries such as Russia managed to hoist the price the market will focus on compliance with the agreement. Goldman Sachs estimates that if the deal is realized, then the WTI oil price of $ 55 per barrel in the first half / 2017.
This estimate reflects a reduction of production by 1 million to 1.6 million barrels per day globally. Actually, the price could reach the level of US $ 60 per barrel. However, there are still projected high prices may tempt producers to re-stimulate the supply, especially the United States. The parties would cut production of OPEC are 10 countries and 13 members from 1 January 2017, Saudi Arabia contributed to the greatest cuts, which is 486,000 barrels per day, followed by Iraq number 210,000 barrels per day.
As for Nigeria and Libya exempt from reductions because the state needs funds to recover after the terrorist attacks, "citing research Goldman Sachs. Tim Evans, analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York, said the oil market is now in a situation overbought (oversold), so vulnerable to a correction . Every negative sentiment, the price can be shaken, however, in the near term sentiment is still overshadow the oil market.
One of them came from Saudi Arabia's statement Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih and United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei who believe action OPEC production cuts will make oil prices drove higher in 2017. Rev. Tribowo Laksono, Central Capital Futures analyst, said the deal production cuts among OPEC and other oil producing countries after 15 years managed to make the price rally. In the short term, prices experienced a bullish trend.
In the medium term, crude oil prices will move in the range of US $ 50-US $ 60 per barrel. As for the short-term level US$ 55 per barrel to the next target. Pruning is necessary for the production of producer countries to lift the back of crude oil prices.
IN INDONESIAN
Pasar Tunggu Realisasi Pemangkasan
Rencana pemangkasan produksi pada awal 2017 berhasil memanaskan harga minyak mentah pada akhir tahun. realisasi aksi tersebut dibutuhkan untuk menyeimbangkan pasar dalam jangka panjang. Pada perdagangan Jumat ‘(23/12) harga minyak WTI kontrak Februari 2017 berada di posisi US$S3,02 per barel, naik 0,07 poin atau 0,13%. Sementara itu, minyak Brent kontrak Februari 2017 bertahan di US$ 55,21 per barel, meningkat 1,19 poin atau 2,2%. Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, mengatakan pasar bergembira karena OPEC berjanji mengurangi suplai dan persediaan.
Sentimen ini menyebabkan pasar minyak lebih seimbang pada 2017. "Tes besar akan datang setelah Tahun Baru {2017], apakah para produsen merealisasikan perjanjian pemangkasan produksi. Meskipun cenderung optimis, pasar masih ragu dengan perjanjian OPEC dan non-OPEC. Dalam rapat OPEC di Wina, Austria, pada 30 November, OPEC memutuskan pemangkasan produksi sebesar 1,2 juta barel per hari menjadi 32,5 juta barel per hari mulai awal 2017. Pasar menyambut baik rencana ini sehingga melejitkan harga.
Arab Saudi memotong sekitar 486.000 barel per hari sebagai upaya mengakhiri surplus pasar. Pada Oktober 2016, produsen minyak terbesar di OPEC itu menghasilkan 10,63 juta barel per hari. Selanjutnya pada 10 Desember 2016, anggota OPEC dan negara produsen minyak non-anggota mencapai kesepakatan menahan suplai untuk pertama kalinya sejak 2001. Pengurangan produksi ini bertujuan mengendalikan kelebihan pasokan di pasar sekaligus menstabilkan harga minyak. Para produsen non-OPEC sepakat memangkas suplai baru hingga 558.000 barel per hari, termasuk Rusia sebesar 300.000 barel per hari.
Sebelumnya, OPEC menginginkan agar negara non-anggota bisa memotong hingga 600.000 barel per hari. Menurut riset Goldman Sachs Group Inc., penandatanganan kesepakatan setelah proses perdebatan hampir setahun antara OPEC dan negara non-anggota seperti Rusia berhasil mengerek harga pasar akan berfokus kepada kepatuhan terhadap perjanjian tersebut. Goldman Sachs mengestimasi bila kesepakatan terealisasi, maka harga minyak WTI mencapai US$55 per barel pada semester I/2017.
Perkiraan ini mencerminkan adanya pemotongan produksi sebesar 1 juta-1,6 juta barel per hari secara global. Sebetulnya, harga bisa saja menembus level US$ 60 per barel. Namun, masih ada proyeksi tingginya harga dapat menggoda negara produsen untuk kembali memacu suplai, khususnya Amerika Serikat. Pihak-pihak yang akan memangkas produksi dari OPEC adalah 10 negara dan 13 anggota mulai 1 Januari 2017. Arab Saudi berkontribusi dalam pemotongan paling besar, yakni 486.000 barel per hari, disusul Irak sejumlah 210.000 barel per hari.
Adapun Nigeria dan Libia dibebaskan dari pengurangan karena negara membutuhkan dana untuk memulihkan kondisi setelah serangan teroris," mengutip riset Goldman Sachs. Tim Evans, analis Citi Futures Perspective di New York, mengatakan pasar minyak kini dalam situasi overbought (jenuh beli), sehingga rentan koreksi. Setiap ada sentimen negatif maka harga dapat terguncang Namun, dalam waktu dekat sentimen positif masih menaungi pasar minyak.
Salah satunya berasal dari pemyataan Menteri Energi Arab Saudi Khalid Al-Falih dan Menteri Energi Uni Emirat Arab Suhail Al-Mazrouei yang meyakini tindakan pemangkasan produksi OPEC membuat harga minyak bakal melaju lebih tinggi pada 2017. Wahyu Tribowo Laksono, analis Central Capital Futures, mengatakan kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi antara OPEC dan negara produsen minyak lainnya setelah 15 tahun berhasil membuat reli harga. Dalam jangka pendek, harga mengalami tren bullish.
Dalam jangka menengah, harga minyak mentah akan bergerak dalam kisaran US$50-US$60 per barel. Adapun dalam jangka pendek level US$ 55 per barel menjadi target berikutnya. Pemangkasan produksi diperlukan bagi negara produsen untuk mengangkat kembali harga minyak mentah.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Tuesday, Dec, 27,2016
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