BENARKAH pasar minyak bumi akan kembali kepada keseimbangan pasca tercapainya kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi? Bukankah dalam kesepakatan-kesepakatan sebelumnya Negara-Negara Anggota Pengekspor Minyak alias OPEC cenderung melanggar pemberlakuan kuota? Apalagi, bagi sejumlah negara anggota, tendensi melemahnya harga minyak dalam jangka panjang sangat tidak menguntungkan di tengah kebutuhan mendapatkan devisa guna mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi.
Namun, tampaknya, tidak ada opsi lain bagi OPEC selain memangkas produksi sebagai langkah nyata menstimulasi kembali mengerek harga minyak dunia yang dalam setahun terakhir terjerembap pada harga USD 80 per barel. Keputusan sidang ke-171 OPEC
di Vienna, Australia, (30/11) terkait pengendalian produksi minyak siap jual pada volume maksimal 32,5 juta barel dari produksi 2016 sebesar 33,7 juta barel per hari terhitung 1 Januari 2017 dengan target harga ke level USD 55-USD 60 per barel sementara memang bisa memuaskan harapan akan membaiknya harga.
Sehari setelah kesepakatan, harga minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) pengiriman Januari memang langsung melonjak USD 1,28 ke posisi USD 50,72 per barel. Sedangkan harga kontrak minyak jenis ini melonjak 9,3 persen, suatu penguatan terbesar sejak Februari. Efektivitas Kesepakatan Arab Saudi menerima kesepakatan bahwa lran sebagai kasus khusus bisa meningkatkan produksi menjadi sekitar 3,9 juta barel per hari.
Fleksibilitas berupa perlakuan khusus untuk keperluan recovery kondisi keuangan negara juga diberikan kepada Venezuela dan Libya sebagai langkah mengembalikan menurunya kepercayaan terhadap OPEC. Saudi yang menggenjot produksi minyaknya hingga rekor 2016 sudah bersedia mereduksi output-nya sebesar 486.000 barel menjadi 10,06 juta barel per hari. Iraq, produsen terbesar kedua OPEC, setuju pengurangan 210.000 barel dari tingkat produksi Oktober. Iran adalah satu-satunya anggota yang diperbolehkan untuk menaikkan produksi setelah mengklaim pertimbangan khusus atas sanksi sebelumnya.
Pengalaman empiris menunjukkan, OPEC tidak berdaya mencegah jatuhnya harga minyak pada posisi paling mencemaskan sekalipun Sebanyak 97 juta barel per hari kebutuhan minyak dunia, OPEC hanya memasok sekitar 33 persen, sedangkan selebihnya berada di genggaman negara-negara non-OPEC. Tidak mengherankan bila OPEC juga mengharapkan kemungkinan terjadinya pengurangan produksi sekitar 600.000 barel oleh negara-negara non-OPEC.
Hingga 4/12/2015, cadangan minyak AS sebesar 485,9 juta barel. Angka tersebut belum pernah terlihat sejak 80 tahun lalu. Selama harga belum stabil di atas USD 40 per barel, minyak rawan tekanan. Di balik semua itu, konsekuensi kesepakatan potensial mendorong pengeboran minyak serpih (shale oil) AS yang lumpuh akibat fluktuasi harga minyak dua tahun terakhir. Biaya produksi minyak serpih diketahui terus turun gara-gara perkembangan teknologi.
Minyak serpih adalah pesaing minyak bumi, berasal dari karbon yang terjerat di batuan serpih. Sumber minyak kelompok tersebut tersebar di AS. Untunglah, meski bukan anggota OPEC, Rusia sudah menyatakan dukungan dan bersedia memotong produksi 300.000 barel dari capaian produksi 11,2 juta per hari. Walaupun dua kubu produsen bersatu, tetap saja tidak bisa menjadi penentu arah utama pergerakan harga.
Goldman Sachs menduga, melalui kesepakatan Vienna, harga minyak WTI berpotensi terbang ke level USD 60 sebelum nanti bertahan di kisaran USD 50 per barel medio 2017. Analisis berbeda datang dari Morgan Stanley, yang menduga kenaikan harga minyak WTI sulit bertahan hingga pertengahan 2017 karena pengaruh eskalasi produksi di AS dan Asia. Diduga seirama dengan pengurangan produksi dari OPEC, AS dan negara Asia yang lain akan berlomba-lomba menggenjot produksinya dalam upaya mengembangkan pangsa pasar.
Posisi Indonesia Indonesia sudah memutuskan pembekuan keanggotaan OPEC menyusul hasil sidang yang meminta pemotongan 5 persen produksi minyak nasional atau sekitar 37.000 barel per hari. Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Ignasius Jonan menilai, pemangkasan sejumlah itu terlalu besar. Dalam RAPBN 2017 disepakati produksi minyak 2017 turun 5.000 ribu barel jika dibandingkan dengan pada 2016.
Dengan demikian, pemotongan produksi minyak yang bisa diterima Indonesia hanya 5.000 barel per hari. Bila mengikuti angka pemangkasan arahan OPEC, Indonesia dikhawatirkan tidak bisa mengejar target pendapatan 2017. Padahal, kebutuhan penerimaan negara masih besar. Tidak hanya mempersulit upaya capaian setoran ke APBN, sebagai negara net importer minyak bumi (crude oil), pemotongan kapasitas produksi versi OPEC jelas tidak menguntungkan bagi perekonomian. Sebab, secara teoretis, pengurangan produksi mengakibatkan harga melonjak.
Pihak Indonesia menilai, pembekuan sementara merupakan keputusan terbaik. Tidak hanya bagi Indonesia, tetapi juga untuk seluruh anggota OPEC. Keputusan pemotongan produksi total sebesar 1,2 juta barel per hari tetap masih bisa dijalankan. Sementara Indonesia tetap bisa mempertahankan kepentingan nasional dengan tidak terikat keputusan yang diambil. Apa pun yang terjadi, minyak telanjur menjadi komoditas panas, sangat dipengaruhi geopolitik. Harganya pun tidak menentu, pernah berada di posisi USD 147, tetapi juga pemah di bawah USD 50.
Melihat arah dan tendensi ke depan, pengembangan energi bersih dan terbarukan menjadi urgen. Indonesia sudah menetapkan bahwa 2025 target bauran energi akan memperlihatkan komposisi 23 persen berasal dari energi terbarukan. Antara lain, diharapkan kapasitas pembangkit listrik energi baru terbarukan saat itu bisa mencapai 45 gigawatt. Sayangnya, hingga kini kebijakan terintegrasi ke arah pengembangan energi terbarukan tidak kunjung digulirkan. Padahal, alam Indonesia menyediakan keunggulan kompetitif bagi energi alternatif.
IN ENGLISH
OPEC, Oil Geopolitics, and Bioenergy
TRUE petroleum market will return to balance production cut after reaching an agreement? Did not the previous agreements of the Member States of the Petroleum Exporting alias OPEC likely to violate the implementation of quotas? Moreover, the number of member countries, the tendency of weakening of oil prices in the long term is not very profitable in need foreign exchange to boost economic growth.
But, apparently, there is no other option other than to OPEC cut production as a real step back hoist stimulate world oil prices plummeted in the last year at the price of USD 80 per barrel. Decision 171 session of OPEC
in Vienna, Australia, (30/11) relating to control of oil production is ready to sell at the maximum volume of 32.5 million barrels of production in 2016 of 33.7 million barrels per day as of January 1, 2017 with the target price to a level of USD 55-USD 60 per barrel while it can satisfy the expectations of better prices.
The day after the deal, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for January delivery was immediately jumped USD 1.28 to USD 50.72 per barrel position. While the contract price of crude jumped 9.3 per cent, a biggest gain since February. Effectiveness of Agreement Saudi Arabia to accept the deal that the Iranians as a special case could raise production to around 3.9 million barrels per day.
Flexibility in the form of special treatment for the purposes of recovery of the country's financial condition is also given to Venezuela and Libya as a step to restore confidence in the decline in OPEC. Saudis to boost oil production to a record in 2016 had agreed to reduce its output by 486,000 barrels to 10.06 million barrels per day. Iraq, OPEC's second largest producer, agreed to a reduction of 210,000 barrels of production levels in October. Iran is the only member allowed to increase production after claiming a specific consideration of previous sanctions.
Empirical experience shows, OPEC was powerless to prevent the fall in oil prices on the most worrisome position though total of 97 million barrels per day of oil demand, OPEC only supplies around 33 percent, while the rest is in the grip of the non-OPEC. Not surprisingly, OPEC also expects the possibility of reduction in production of about 600,000 barrels by the non-OPEC.
Until 04/12/2015, US oil reserves amounted to 485.9 million barrels. The figure has not been seen since 80 years ago. As long as the price has not stabilized at above USD 40 per barrel, oil-prone pressure. Underneath it all, the consequences of a potential deal to encourage drilling for oil shale (shale oil) US crippled by fluctuations in oil prices the past two years. The production costs of shale oil is known to fall because of technological developments.
Oil shale is a competitor of oil, derived from the carbon trapped in shale rock. The group dispersed oil resources in the US. Fortunately, although not a member of OPEC, Russia has expressed support and are willing to cut production by 300,000 barrels of production performance of 11.2 million per day. Although the two camps unite producers, it still can not be the main determinant of the direction of price movement.
Goldman Sachs assumed, through the Vienna agreement, the price of WTI oil has the potential to fly to a level of USD 60 before later survive in the range of USD 50 per barrel in mid-2017, a different analysis came from Morgan Stanley, which assumed WTI oil price increases is difficult to survive until mid-2017 because of the influence of escalation production in the US and Asia. Allegedly in tune with production cuts from OPEC, the US and other Asian countries will be vying ramped in an effort to grow market share.
Position of Indonesia Indonesia has decided freezing OPEC membership following a hearing requested cuts 5 percent of domestic oil production, or about 37,000 barrels per day. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Ignatius Jonan rate, trimming the number was too large. In the 2017 draft budget agreed in 2017 oil production fell to 5,000 thousand barrels compared to 2016.
Thus, cutting oil production are acceptable Indonesia only 5,000 barrels per day. If you follow the direction of OPEC trimming figures, Indonesia is feared could not pursue revenue targets in 2017. In fact, state revenue needs are still great. Not only complicate efforts to achievement of the deposit to the state budget, as a net importer of petroleum (crude oil), OPEC cuts production capacity version is clearly not beneficial to the economy. Therefore, theoretically, reduced production resulted in soaring prices.
Party Indonesia rate, the temporary suspension of the best decision. Not only for Indonesia, but also to all members of OPEC. The decision to cut output by a total of 1.2 million barrels per day can still be executed. While Indonesia still can maintain national interests are not bound by the decisions taken. Whatever happens, the oil already become a hot commodity, very influenced by geopolitics. The price was erratic, never been in the position of USD 147, but never below $ 50.
See directions and tendencies in the future, the development of clean and renewable energy become urgent. Indonesia has set a 2025 target of the energy mix that would show the composition of 23 percent comes from renewable energy. Among other things, the expected capacity of new renewable energy power plants when it could reach 45 gigawatts. Unfortunately, until now integrated policies towards the development of renewable energy does not go in effect. In fact, the nature of Indonesia provide a competitive advantage for alternative energy.
Jawa Pos, Page-4,Friday,Dec,9,2016
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