Harga minyak mentah global naik Iagi pada perdagangan Kamis (1/12), setelah melonjak hampir 10% usai kesepakatan pertama dalam delapan tahun oleh Organisasi Negara-Negara Pengekspor Minyak atau OPEC untuk memangkas produksi 1,2 juta bph. Pasar finansial menyatakan akan memantau implementasi, karena masih banyak hambatan untuk mengatasi kelebihan pasokan di pasar. Kebanyakan analis sebelumnya memperkirakan kartel minyak 14 negara tersebut gagal mencapai kesepakatan, karena para produsen besar seperti Iran, Irak, dan Arab Saudi tetap berseberangan.
Namun OPEC di luar dugaan berhasil menyetujui kesepakatan awal yang tercapai pada September 2016, yang bertujuan mengurangi kelebihan pasokan global dan mengangkat harga. Setelah keputusan OPEC keluar, harga minyak mentah dunia melonjak hampir 10%, namun hanya naik 1% pada perdagangan Kamis. Sekitar pukul 10:30 GMT, harga minyak mentah Brent Laut Utara naik 51 sen menjadi US$ 52,35 per barel dan harga minyak mentah West Texas Intermediate (WTI) naik 47 sen menjadi US$ 49,91 per barel.
Meskipun pengumuman kemarin jauh melebihi ekspektasi, masih ada sejumlah hambatan untuk menyembuhkan kelebihan pasokan di pasar minyak. Pasar Eropa juga di bayangi situasi jelang referendum di Italia, meski nanti juga akan keluar data baru ketenagakerjaan AS,” ujar Joshua Mahony, analis dari IG. Dalam pertemuan formal di markasnya di Wina, Austria, OPEC sepakat mengurangi produksi 1,2 juta barel per hari mulai bulan depan. Produsen besar non-OPEC, Rusia, juga berkomitmen mengurangi produksi.
Perjanjian ini mengakhiri ketidakpastian dan volatilitas di pasar minyak mentah selama beberapa pekan terakhir. Para produsen utama terbelah mengenai siapa yang harus menanggung beban terbesar pemangkasan. Kata OPEC dan melebihi ekspektasi sangat jarang, atau malah tidak pernah bersamaan. Pemangkasan dibagi rata ke seluruh anggota, termasuk Iran dan Irak,” ujar analis senior Oanda Jeffrey Halley. Naeem Aslam, analis dari Think Markets mengatakan, apa yang akan dilihat para investor sekarang adalah berapa lama kesepakatan ini akan berjalan dan apakah ada partisipan yang akan mencurangi kuota pemangkasan yang sudah disepakati.
Negara-negara OPEC di masa lalu tidak dapat mematuhi kuota yang sudah disepakati demi menjaga pangsa pasar dan mengamankan pendapatan dari minyak. Akan ada mekanisme untuk memantau dan menjamin kepatuhan penuh dari para partisipan,” ujar Menteri Energi Arab Saudi Khaled Al Falih. Menteri Energi Qatar sekaligus Presiden Konferensi OPEC Mohammed Bin Saleh Al Sada mengatakan, OPEC sepakat memangkas produksi bulanan 1,2 juta bph menjadi 32,5 juta bph mulai 1 januari 2017.
Saudi akan memangkas produksi 486.000 bph dari level Oktober 2016 menjadi 10,1 juta bph. lrak akan memangkas 210.000 menjadi 4,4 juta bph dan Uni Emirat Arab (UEA) 139.000 menjadi 2,9 juta bph. Namun Iran justru akan meningkatkan produksi 90.000 bph menjadi 3,8 juta bph. Libya dan Nigeria dikecualikan dari kesepakatan, sedangkan Indonesia memilih untuk membekukan keanggotaannya dari OPEC. Fokus sekarang akan tertuju kepada para produsen non-OPEC, terutama Rusia, untuk memangkas produksi dengan harapan sebanyak 600.000 bph.
IN ENGLISH
Financial markets would Monitor OPEC agreement
Global crude oil prices rose involvement on Thursday (1/12), after surging nearly 10% after the first deal in eight years by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC to cut production by 1.2 million bpd. Financial markets said it would monitor the implementation, because there are still many obstacles to overcome oversupply in the market. Most analysts had forecast the country's 14 oil cartel failed to reach an agreement, because the major producers such as Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia remain opposed.
But OPEC unexpectedly failed to agree on the initial agreement reached in September 2016, aimed at reducing excess global supply and lift prices. After the decision of OPEC exit, crude oil prices jumped almost 10%, but only up 1% on Thursday. Around 10:30 GMT, the price of Brent North Sea crude rose 51 cents to US $ 52.35 per barrel and the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) rose 47 cents to US $ 49.91 per barrel.
Despite yesterday's announcement far exceeded expectations, there are still a number of obstacles to cure the oversupply in the oil market. European markets also in the shadow of the situation ahead of the referendum in Italy, although the data will also be out of new US jobs, "said Joshua Mahony, an analyst at IG. In a formal meeting at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, OPEC agreed to reduce production of 1.2 million barrels per day starting next month. Manufacturers of large non-OPEC, Russia, is also committed to reduce production.
This agreement put an end to the uncertainty and volatility in the crude oil market over the last few weeks. The main producers split over who should bear the greatest burden trimming. OPEC said and exceed expectations very rarely, or even never simultaneously. Pruning is distributed equally to all members, including Iran and Iraq, "said a senior analyst at Oanda Jeffrey Halley. Naeem Aslam, an analyst from Think Markets said, what will be the investors now is how long this deal will go and whether there are participants who will cheat quota cuts agreed.
OPEC countries in the past can not comply with the quotas agreed upon in order to maintain market share and securing of oil revenues. There will be a mechanism to monitor and ensure full compliance of the participants, "said Energy Minister Khaled Al Falih of Saudi Arabia. Qatar Energy Minister and President of the OPEC Conference Mohammed Bin Saleh Al Sada said OPEC agreed to cut monthly production of 1.2 million bpd to 32.5 million bpd from 1 January 2017.
Saudi will cut production by 486,000 bpd from the level in October 2016 to 10.1 million bpd. Iraqis will cut 210,000 to 4.4 million bpd and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of 139,000 to 2.9 million bpd. But Iran will actually increase the production of 90,000 bpd to 3.8 million bpd. Libya and Nigeria is excluded from the deal, while Indonesia chose to freeze its membership of OPEC. The focus now will be drawn to the non-OPEC producers, particularly Russia, to cut production by 600,000 bpd expectations.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak confirmed his country will cut production by 300,000 bpd starting from next year, if the decision of OPEC remains adhered to. Russian daily production reached 11 million bpd now. Assuming the non-OPEC reached 600,000 bpd, total crude oil production cut in the market reached 1.8 million bpd.
Investor Daily, Page-3, Friday, Dec,2,2016
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