Global investment in the upstream sector of the oil and gas this year, according to consulting firm Wood Mackenzie forecast Asia Pacific, will rise 3% over the past year, to $ 450 billion. The trigger, among others, to reduce costs and shift its capital allocation of large projects into smaller projects.
Indonesia should be able to capture that opportunity. However, according to MacKenzie, Indonesia would likely face at least two problems:
First, the lack of oil and gas exploration in Indonesia some time lately to lower perceptions about the outlook for oil and gas investment. "Based on studies MacKenzie, oil and gas investment attractiveness actually have high fiscal and prospects. However, if there is no improvement, the perception may decline, "said MacKenzie Asia Pacific Research Director Andrew Harwood in Singapore.
Second, regulatory uncertainty. "Regulation is subject to change and mismatch between the central and regional policies are just two examples of uncertainty," said Harwood to a number of leaders in the Indonesian media exposure was initiated by SKK Migas.
Therefore, MacKenzie submitted three recommendations relating to production sharing contract so that Indonesia can enjoy the increase in investment in upstream oil and gas sector.
First, reduce administrative and regulatory barriers for investors.
Second, give greater confidence to investors to explore efficiently.
Third, the key risks will determine whether the investor gets the desired results under the new revenue sharing system.
The price of gas
MacKenzie also conducted a study of gas prices in Indonesia. In Indonesia, the price of gas is determined agreement with a buyer or a fixed price. Meanwhile, other countries determine based on the price of oil. "The price of gas (piped gas) inside Indonesia relatively below the average price of gas in Asian countries," said Johan Top Hardi, upstream oil and gas analyst MacKenzie Asia Pacific.
However, according to him, Indonesia gas prices that are fixed price will be affected by the determination of gas prices in other countries. Moreover, in the future, Indonesia will be reduced gas and Indonesia will become a gas importer. Therefore, Indonesia must determine gas prices according to the price of oil.
Information SKK Migas said Indonesia now pricing scheme based on the price of oil. As for the fixed price scheme applies to long-term contracts.
IN INDONESIAN
Kepastian Hukum Tarik Investor Migas
Investasi global di sektor hulu minyak dan gas tahun ini, menurut prediksi perusahaan konsultan Wood Mackenzie Asia Pasifik, akan naik 3% ketimbang tahun lalu, menjadi US$ 450 miliar. Pemicunya, antara lain turunnya ongkos produksi serta beralih-nya alokasi kapital dari proyek-proyek besar ke proyek-proyek lebih kecil.
Indonesia mestinya bisa menangkap peluang itu. Namun, menurut MacKenzie, Indonesia justru akan menghadapi paling tidak dua persoalan :
Pertama, minimnya eksplorasi migas di Indonesia beberapa waktu belakangan ini bisa menurunkan persepsi tentang prospek investasi migas. “Berdasar studi MacKenzie, investasi migas sebetulnya punya daya tarik fiskal dan prospek tinggi. Namun, bila tidak ada perbaikan, persepsi tersebut bisa menurun,” kata Direktur Riset MacKenzie Asia Pasifik Andrew Harwood di Singapura.
Kedua, ketidakpastian regulasi. “Regulasi yang bisa berubah-ubah dan ketidak sesuaian kebijakan antara pusat-daerah merupakan dua contoh ketidakpastian itu,” ujar Harwood kepada sejumlah pemimpin media massa Indonesia dalam pemaparan yang digagas SKK Migas.
Oleh karena itu, MacKenzie mengajukan tiga rekomendasi terkait dengan production sharing contract agar Indonesia bisa menikmati kenaikan investasi di sektor hulu migas.
Pertama, mengurangi hambatan administrasi dan regulasi bagi investor.
Kedua, memberi kepercayaan lebih besar kepada investor untuk eksplorasi secara efisien.
Ketiga, risiko-risiko kunci akan menentukan apakah investor mendapat hasil yang diinginkan di bawah sistem bagi hasil yang baru.
Harga gas
MacKenzie juga melakukan studi harga gas di Indonesia. Di Indonesia, harga gas ditentukan kesepakatan dengan pembeli atau fixed price. Sementara itu, negara lain menentukan berdasarkan harga minyak. “Harga gas pipa (piped gas) dalam negeri Indonesia relatif di bawah rata-rata harga gas di negara-negara Asia,” kata Johan Hardi Utama, analis hulu migas MacKenzie Asia Pasifik.
Namun, menurutnya, harga gas Indonesia yang bersifat fixed price akan dipengaruhi penentuan harga gas negara lain. Apalagi, di masa depan, gas Indonesia akan berkurang dan Indonesia akan menjadi importir gas. Oleh karena itu, Indonesia mesti menentukan harga gas sesuai dengan harga minyak.
Informasi SKK Migas menyebutkan skema harga Indonesia kini sudah berdasarkan harga minyak. Adapun skema fixed price berlaku untuk kontrak jangka panjang.
Media Indonesia, Page-17, Tuesday, Jan, 24, 2017
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