Oil and Gas Upstream good prospects

There are at least two things that must be addressed so that Indonesia can share in the potential oil and gas investment.

Investment in domestic oil and gas upstream sector is predicted to grow positively in line with rising oil prices and policy updates production sharing contracts (production sharing contract / PSC), which is now based gross revenue share split or dirty. Special Unit of the Upstream Oil and Gas (SKK Migas) peg the growth of oil and gas investment in 2017 reached 5%. The rate of growth was higher than projected global investment in Wood MacKenzie institutions in Asia Pacific by 3% this year.

Optimism SKK Migas departing from the Work Plan and Budget (Work Program and Budget / WP & B) in 2017 has been approved. "Our projections, investments in the above predictions Mackenzie, (rise) of about 5%," said Head of Public Relations SKK Migas Taslim Yunus.

Growth was also going to show momentum recovery in upstream oil and gas investment. From the data SKK Migas, per November 2016, the upstream oil and gas investment 'only' US $ 10.43 billion. In 2015, the upstream oil and gas investment of US $ 15.34 billion. Taslim explained, the trend of rising oil prices, now above $ 50 per barrel, re-stimulate investment in the extractive sector. Although, regulatory certainty and simplification of the bureaucracy is crucial for investors. Therefore, in the scheme ordain gross PSC split an effort to ensure a more conducive investment climate. "This (gross split) so one of the policies that can increase production. Just how its implementation, "said Director of the Indonesia Petroleum Association Sammy Hamzah

According to the boss of PT Ephindo this scheme gross PSC split to give greater opportunities to the cooperation contract to design activities that promote efficiency, following the production speed boost from the discovery phase to production. Meanwhile, gross PSC split cut operational costs of oil and gas schemes that returned the country (cost recovery). "Now contractors shoulder the burden of risk entirely, then he would struggle to run an efficient business," Sammy said.

Seize Opportunities

Previously, consultancy Wood Mackenzie Asia Pacific assumes world oil prices in 2017 range from US $ 57 per barrel. Simultaneously, the global upstream oil and gas investment is predicted to rise by 3% to US $ 450 billion. A total of 2025 new contracts will be invested with an average capital expenditure of US $ 3.6 billion. The contractor was the scale is smaller, but efficient as they explore in an area with a long-term oil and gas reserves, said MacKenzie Asia Pacific Research Director Andrew Harwood to a number of media leaders from Indonesia, Singapore

Indonesia, Harwood said, it should be able to seize opportunities in the current uncertainty of oil and gas production. In any MacKenzie projection, oil and gas production based on the pre-final investment decision (pre-FID) increased from 15% in 2020 to 45% in 2020. However, MacKenzie saw Indonesia will face at least two problems.

First, the lack of oil and gas exploration in Indonesia these days can lower the perception of the relevant investment prospects. In fact, studies of MacKenzie, oil and gas investments in Indonesia have appeal and prospective fiscal. "However, if there is no improvement, the perception of the outlook for oil and gas investment in Indonesia may decline," said Harwood.

Second, regulatory factors. Regulations can change function and the central policy areas are two examples of regulatory uncertainties, "Harwood said the exposure was initiated by the SKK Migas.

Regarding the new scheme PSC Indonesia, MacKenzie positive vote. However, to be effective, the government must continue to reduce administrative and regulatory barriers for investors. Then, giving greater responsibility to them to explore efficiently. The key risk is whether investors will get the desired benefits under the new revenue sharing system.

IN INDONESIAN

Hulu Migas Berprospek Bagus

Ada paling tidak dua hal yang harus dibenahi agar Indonesia bisa ikut menikmati potensi investasi migas.

Investasi di sektor hulu migas nasional diprediksi tumbuh positif seiring dengan kenaikan harga minyak dan pembaruan kebijakan kontrak bagi hasil (production sharing contract/PSC) yang kini berbasis gross split atau bagi hasil kotor.  Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Hulu Migas (SKK Migas) mematok pertumbuhan investasi migas 2017 mencapai 5%. Laju itu lebih tinggi daripada pertumbuhan investasi global yang di proyeksi lembaga Wood MacKenzie Asia Pasific sebesar 3% pada tahun ini.

Optimisme SKK Migas berangkat dari Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran (Work Program and Budget/WP&B) 2017 yang sudah disetujui. “Proyeksi kami, investasi di atas prediksi Mackenzie, (naik) sekitar 5%,” kata Kabag Humas SKK Migas Taslim Yunus.

Pertumbuhan itu juga akan menunjukkan momentum pulihnya investasi sektor hulu migas. Dari data SKK Migas, per November 2016, investasi hulu migas ‘hanya’ US$10,43 miliar. Pada 2015, investasi hulu migas US$15,34 miliar. Taslim menerangkan, tren kenaikan harga minyak, yang kini di atas US$ 50 per barel, kembali menggairahkan investasi di sektor ekstraktif. Walaupun, kepastian regulasi dan simplifikasi birokrasi juga krusial bagi investor. Karena itu, di tetapkanlah skema PSC gross split sebagai upaya agar iklim investasi lebih kondusif. “Ini (gross split) jadi salah satu kebijakan yang bisa meningkatkan produksi. Hanya bagaimana implementasinya,” ujar Direktur Indonesia Petroleum Association Sammy Hamzah

Menurut bos PT Ephindo ini, skema PSC gross split memberi peluang lebih besar kepada kontraktor kontrak kerja sama untuk merancang kegiatan yang mengedepankan efisiensi, berikut memacu kecepatan produksi dari tahap penemuan ke produksi. Sementara itu, PSC gross split memotong skema biaya operasional migas yang dikembalikan negara (cost recovery). “Kini kontraktor memikul beban risiko seluruhnya, maka ia akan berjuang menjalankan bisnis yang efisien,” Sammy menambahkan.

Tangkap Peluang

Sebelumnya, lembaga konsultan Wood Mackenzie Asia Pasific mengasumsikan harga minyak dunia 2017 berkisar US$ 57 per barel. Bersamaan dengan itu, investasi global sektor hulu migas diprediksi naik 3% menjadi US$ 450 miliar. Sebanyak 2025 kontrak baru akan berinvestasi dengan belanja modal rata-rata US$ 3,6 miliar. Kontraktor itu skalanya memang lebih kecil, tapi efisien karena mereka mengeksplorasi di areal dengan cadangan migas jangka panjang, kata Direktur Riset MacKenzie Asia Pasifik Andrew Harwood kepada sejumlah pimpinan media dari Indonesia, di Singapura

Indonesia, kata Harwood, mestinya bisa menangkap peluang itu di saat ketidakpastian produksi migas. Dalam proyeksi MacKenzie pun, produksi migas berdasar pre-final investment decision (pre-FID) meningkat dari 15% pada 2020 menjadi 45% pada 2020. Namun, MacKenzie melihat Indonesia akan menghadapi paling tidak dua persoalan. 

Pertama, minimnya eksplorasi migas di Indonesia belakangan ini bisa menurunkan persepsi tentang prospek investasi terkait. Padahal, dari studi MacKenzie, investasi migas di Indonesia memiliki daya tarik fiskal dan prospektif. “Namun, bila tidak ada perbaikan, persepsi terhadap prospek investasi migas di Indonesia bisa menurun,” ucap Harwood.

Kedua, faktor regulasi. Regulasi yang bisa berubah-ubah dan ketidaksinkronan kebijakan pusat-daerah merupakan dua contoh ketidakpastian regulasi,” ujar Harwood dalam pemaparan yang digagas SKK Migas tersebut.

Perihal skema baru PSC Indonesia, MacKenzie menilainya positif. Namun, agar efektif, pemerintah perlu terus mengurangi hambatan administrasi dan regulasi bagi investor. Kemudian, memberi tanggung jawab lebih besar kepada mereka untuk melakukan eksplorasi secara efisien. Risiko kuncinya ialah apakah investor akan mendapat keuntungan yang diinginkan di bawah sistem bagi hasil baru tersebut.

Media Indonesia, Page-17, Monday,Jan, 30, 2017