Oil Not Free from oversupply Issues

Iran has the potential to increase production to 3.8 million barrels per day

In the middle of a deal cut production by oil-exporting countries (OPEC), still no indication of a flood of supply in the market. Understandably, non-OPEC countries such as Iran but to increase oil production. This makes oil prices depressed. According to Bloomberg, Monday (9/1) at 15:26 pm, the price of WTI oil contracts in February 2017 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.54% to US $ 53.70 per barrel compared to the previous day.

But last week, oil prices still rose 2.62%. Nana Wahyudi, Finex Futures analyst, said the price correction caused by market concerns to Iran increased exports. Not long ago Iran to sell 13 million barrels of oil in tankers at sea.

Countries not involved in the deal that OPEC production cuts also intend, to increase production from 3.7 million barrels per day in October 2016 to 3.8, million barrel in the month of January. Iran's attitude made the market worried.

Deddy Yusuf Siregar, Asia Tradepoint Futures analyst, adding, among oil-producing countries that are not involved in the deal cutback in production, such as Libya and Nigeria, Iran is most likely to increase production. Even Iran can be driven daily production to 4 million barrels per day. If that happens will disrupt the stability of oil prices. In fact, last weekend, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait sure going to start cutting production. Saudi Arabia cut production by 486,000 barrels per day.

Kuwait also reduce the production of 2.89 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day. Not only that, the United States (US) also increase the number of rigs. According to Baker Hughes Inc., the US has added more than 100 rigs since late September. The movement of the dollar movements of crude oil prices this week will also be influenced by the statement the US central bank officials. The plan, on Thursday (19/1) night in America, the Fed Governor Janet Yellen will issue a statement ahead of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

If Yellen alluded to rising interest rates, then the US dollar will strengthen. Meanwhile, commodity prices will be depressed. Deddy added, market participants are also awaiting the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump on January 20 next. After the official inauguration will only be known direction of US policy. Ahead of the inauguration, the possibility of oil prices will be in the range of US $ 52-US $ 55 per barrel.

From the technical side, Deddy see rolling oil above the moving average (MA) 50, MA 100 and MA 200. Stochastic at level 51, level 59 in the RSI and MACD in positive area level 1.1. Technical indicators indicate strengthening price. Today (10/1), Deddy projection, oil prices rose limited at US $ 54.47 ~ US $ 52.80 per barrel. Nana predict, oil prices today rose at ~ US $ 52.70 US $ 54.69 and move in the range of US $ 51-US $ 56 per barrel next week

IN INDONESIAN

Minyak Belum Bebas dari Isu Oversupply

Iran berpotensi menaikkan produksi menjadi 3,8 juta  barel per hari

Di tengah kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi oleh negara-negara pengekspor minyak (OPEC), masih ada indikasi banjir pasokan di pasar. Maklum, negara non OPEC seperti Iran tetap menaikkan produksi minyak. Hal tersebut membuat harga minyak tertekan. Mengutip Bloomberg, Senin (9/1) pukul 15.26 WIB, harga minyak WTI kontrak pengiriman Februari 2017 di New York Mercantile Exchange terkoreksi 0,54% ke US$ 53,70 per barel dibanding hari sebelumnya.

Namun sepekan terakhir, harga minyak masih menguat 2,62%. Nanang Wahyudi, analis Finex Berjangka, mengatakan, koreksi harga terjadi akibat kekhawatiran pasar terhadap peningkatan ekspor Iran. Belum lama ini Iran menjual 13 juta barel minyak pada kapal tanker di laut.

Negara yang tidak terlibat dalam kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi OPEC itu juga berniat ,meningkatkan produksi dari 3,7 juta barel per hari di Oktober 2016 menjadi 3,8 ,juta per barel di bulan Januari ini. Sikap Iran ini membuat pasar khawatir.

Deddy Yusuf Siregar, analis Asia Tradepoint Futures, menambahkan, di antara negara penghasil minyak yang tidak terlibat dalam kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi, seperti Libia dan Nigeria, Iran memang paling berpotensi menaikkan produksi. Bahkan produksi harian Iran bisa dipacu hingga 4 juta barel per hari. Kalau itu terjadi akan mengganggu stabilitas harga minyak. Padahal akhir pekan lalu, Arab Saudi dan Kuwait memastikan akan mulai memangkas produksi. Arab Saudi memangkas produksi 486.000 barel per hari.

Kuwait juga mengurangi produksi dari 2,89 barel per hari menjadi 2,7 juta barel per hari. Tak hanya itu, Amerika Serikat (AS) juga menambah jumlah rig. Menurut Baker Hughes Inc, AS telah menambah lebih dari 100 rig sejak akhir September kemarin. Pergerakan dollar Pergerakan harga minyak mentah pekan ini juga akan dipengaruhi pernyataan pejabat bank sentral AS. Rencananya, Kamis (19/1) malam di Amerika, Gubernur The Fed Janet Yellen akan mengeluarkan pernyataan jelang pertemuan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Jika Yellen menyinggung kenaikan suku bunga, maka dollar AS bakal menguat. Sedangkan harga komoditas akan tertekan. Deddy menambahkan, pelaku pasar juga menunggu pelantikan Presiden AS terpilih Donald Trump pada 20 Januari nanti. Setelah resmi dilantik baru akan diketahui arah kebijakan AS. Menjelang pelantikan, kemungkinan harga minyak akan berada di kisaran US$ 52-US$ 55 per barel.

Dari sisi teknikal, Deddy melihat minyak bergulir di atas moving average (MA) 50, MA 100 dan MA 200. Stochastic di level 51, RSI di level 59 dan MACD di area positif level 1,1. Indikator teknikal mengindikasikan penguatan harga. Hari ini (10/1), proyeksi Deddy, harga minyak menguat terbatas di US$ 54,47~US$ 52,80 per barel. Nanang memprediksi, harga minyak hari ini menguat di US$ 52,70~US$ 54,69 dan bergerak di kisaran US$ 51-US$ 56 per barel sepekan ke depan

Kontan, Page-7, Tuesday, Jan, 10, 2017