Sustains High Demand of Natural Gas

Fuel strengthening natural gas prices are still not exhausted. Just look, Tuesday (10/1) at 15.30 pm, the price of natural gas delivery contract in January 2017 at the New York Mercantile Exchange shot 1.58% to US $ 3.15 per mmbtu, the increase was far higher price decline in a week to just 0 , 53%. Asia Tradepoint Futures analyst Andri Hardianto said natural gas prices could be dragged lower oil prices. But natural gas rebounded because market participants assess the natural gas fundamentals remain positive.

Transition power plants from coal to natural gas to one sentiment driving the pace of natural gas prices. In addition, rising prices for natural gas demand in winter is high. Energy Information Administration (EIA) calculates natural gas demand throughout the winter, up approximately 22% lower than a year before the cold season.

Until December 30, 2016, natural gas stockpiles United States (US) was down 364 billion cubic feet to 3.31 trillion cubic feet. In addition, the use of natural gas in Europe also increased. Russian natural gas company, Gazprom reported distribute natural gas to Europe and Turkey amounted to 179.3 billion cubic foot throughout the year 2016. This figure is greater than the distribution of gas in 2015 amounted to 158.63 billion cubic feet.

Although strengthened, Andri assess the price of natural gas is difficult to penetrate the US $ 4 mmbtu in the first quarter of 2017. Therefore, consumption in China is predicted to grow only 2.5%, lower than last year, amounting to 3.6%. Andri projections, natural gas will move in the range of US $ 3 to US $ 3.7 per mmbtu until the end of the first quarter of 2017. From the technical side, natural gas prices move above the moving average (MA) of 100, although still below the 200 MA.

Moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD) is in the positive area, showing a trend to strengthen. Indicators stochastic rises above the level of 50, while the relative strength index (RSI) is engaged in the neutral 50 level range.

Today (11/1), Andri estimates of natural gas potentially strengthened and moved in the range of US $ 3.1-US $ 3.16 per mmbtu. Meanwhile, next week, the price is predicted to move between US $ 3.0-US $ 3.2 per mmbtu.

IN INDONESIAN

Permintaan Tinggi Topang Gas Alam

Bahan bakar penguatan harga gas alam masih belum habis. Tengok saja, Selasa (10/1) pukul 15.30 WIB, harga gas alam kontrak pengiriman Januari 2017 di New York Mercantile Exchange melesat 1,58% jadi US$ 3,15 per mmbtu, Kenaikan tinggi tersebut memperkecil penurunan harga dalam sepekan menjadi tinggal 0,53%. Analis Asia Tradepoint Futures Andri Hardianto mengatakan, harga gas alam sempat ikut terseret penurunan harga minyak. Tapi gas alam kembali rebound lantaran pelaku pasar menilai fundamental gas alam masih positif.

Peralihan pembangkit listrik dari batubara ke gas alam menjadi salah satu sentimen pendorong laju harga gas alam. Di samping itu, harga naik karena permintaan gas alam di musim dingin tinggi. Energy Information Administration (EIA) menghitung permintaan gas alam sepanjang musim dingin ini naik sekitar 22% daripada musim dingin setahun sebelumnya.

Hingga 30 Desember 2016, stok gas alam Amerika Serikat (AS) tercatat turun 364 miliar kaki kubik menjadi 3,31 triliun kaki kubik. Selain itu, penggunaan gas alam di Eropa juga mengalami peningkatan. Perusahaan gas alam Rusia, Gazprom melaporkan telah menyalurkan gas alam ke Eropa dan Turki sebesar 179,3 miliar kaki kubik sepanjang tahun 2016. Angka tersebut lebih besar dibanding penyaluran gas di 2015, sebesar 158,63 miliar kaki kubik.

Meski menguat, Andri menilai harga gas alam sulit menembus US$ 4 mmbtu di kuartal I-2017. Sebab, konsumsi di China tahun ini diprediksi cuma tumbuh 2,5%, lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan tahun lalu, sebesar 3,6%. Proyeksi Andri, gas alam akan bergerak pada kisaran US$ 3~US$ 3,7 per mmbtu hingga akhir kuartal I-2017. Dari sisi teknikal, harga gas alam bergerak di atas moving average (MA) 100, meski masih di bawah MA 200.

Indikator moving average convergence divergence (MACD) berada di area positif, menunjukkan tren menguat. lndikator stochastic naik di atas level 50, sementara relative strength index (RSI) bergerak netral di kisaran level 50.

Hari ini (11/1), Andri memperkirakan gas alam berpotensi menguat dan bergerak di rentang US$ 3,1-US$ 3,16 per mmbtu. Sedangkan sepekan ke depan, harga diprediksi bergerak antara US$ 3,0-US$ 3,2 per mmbtu.

Kontan, Page- 5, Wednesday, Jan, 11, 2017