Amid fears of a new policy of US President Donald Trump, investment in upstream oil and gas activities which had declined in the past two years again increased 3% to US $ 450 billion this year. Crude oil prices are expected slightly raised to break even at a price of US $ 45 per barrel. This year, the price of Brent crude oil is expected to reach an average of US $ 57 per barrel, up 30% from US $ 44 per barrel in 2016 "activities in the upstream oil and gas companies began to increase again this year. While the price of crude oil, although increasing, are not going to experience a surge means, "said Andrew Harwood, oil and gas analyst from Wood Mackenzie Singapore.
Responded to the demand for crude oil to increase, the company will raise its upstream oil and gas production, including the United States under the new government. Large price spikes will not happen because of the additional supply will depress prices.
Although up 3%, said Andrew, total upstream oil and gas investment this year is still around 40% compared to 2014. In contrast to earlier times, oil and gas companies are now switching from oil and gas projects are large and complex for smaller projects with faster rate of return on capital , "Efficiency is a major concern by utilizing cutting-edge technology," he said.
Investment activities in the upstream oil and gas, says Andrew, is highly dependent on the regulation of a country. Investors often compare the prospects of investment and upstream oil and gas fiscal policies in one country to another. There is a nice country prospects, but less good fiscal policy. There is a nice country both, but some are not good both ways.
Upstream oil and gas investment in Indonesia, according to Andrew, is considered quite prospective and fiscal policy gives enough incentive. While Malaysia is considered more prospective than Indonesia. However, fiscal policy less interesting than Indonesia. Malaysia does not provide an incentive of Indonesia. According to Wood Mackenzie, Brazil and Mexico have good prospects, but less supportive fiscal policy.
While Norway, Mozambique, and Nigeria is better than Indonesia in fiscal incentives and investment prospects. Rating Wood Mackenzie has considered the gross policy split that was implemented by the government. Although there are no foreign investors who use it, profit-sharing scheme in gross split draw enough. Until today, the new Offshore North-West Java Pertamina, which take advantage of this new policy.
Gross split-sharing schemes applied to the new company. Medium companies are running still refers to the old rules-based cost recovery. Vice President External Relations SKK Migas Taslim Z Yunus explained, it could not assess the effectiveness of the new regulations that are applied through the Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation. "The policy is still new. Investors are still studying, "he said.
Upstream oil and gas business community who attended the discussion is optimistic, investment in upstream oil and gas in Indonesia began to rise this year. Vice President Development and Relations Conoco Phillips Joang Laksanto said, arousal oil and gas investment this year mainly due to rising crude oil prices. Not because of government policies that have not been tested. In calculating the gross revenue share split, the component that counts is the oil and gas reserves, investment costs, and price. "This calculation should be submitted only to the investor. But, in the upstream oil and gas management is still subject to the oil and gas law, "he said.
Investment in upstream oil and gas in Indonesia, Joang said, quite heavy. Because the success ratio below 10%, far below the world average, which reached 30%. When conducting exploration, large costs had to be issued for a successful investor is below 10%. As is known, began in January 2017, the government changed the scheme of the production sharing contract (PSC) on new oil and gas contracts. If used previously is refundable fee scheme (cost recovery) then applied the new rule is a gross scheme split.
The provisions set forth in the Regulation of the Minister ESDM No. 8 of 2017 concerning the Production Sharing Contract Gross Split. Deputy Minister Arcandra Tahar stated, the application of split or gross schemes for gross proceeds in the cooperation contract (production sharing contract / PSC) of oil and gas will not harm the state. This scheme makes the country avoid potential cost overruns oil and gas projects, so that revenues derived from oil and gas sector more certain and secure.
Arcandra confirms, investors who felt the split earned enough, you can submit it to the government. For results after inserting variable and progressive split split is still open to change. "If the commercial, there is room for negotiation about 5%," he said.
That, said Arcandra, in accordance with Article 7 of the Regulations the Minister ESDM No. 8 of 2017 on Production Sharing Contracts Gross Split which became the basis for the gross split. In this policy is mentioned, when calculating commercialization field does not reach a certain economic value, the contractor received an additional split a maximum of 5%. "On the contrary, in the calculation of the commercialization of the field exceeds a certain economic value, the state may take a split Supplement 5%," he said.
Less attractive
Meanwhile, investors assessed the gross split scheme offered by the government is still less attractive. Investor wants, although the scheme changed to gross split contract, for the results received at least equal to when using the cost recovery scheme. Investors also requested an additional incentive for exploration. In addition, there is uncertainty related to the implementation of the ease of business process promised by the government.
Chief Executive Officer (CED) and President of PT Ephindo Sammy Hamzah said non-conventional oil and gas investor proposes the implementation of the scheme gross split in oil and gas contracts in order to project more attractive. Therefore, Sammy said, it is very appreciated efforts of government then issued a ministerial regulation about gross split. Moreover, Regulation 38/2015 on Acceleration of Non-conventional Oil and Gas Concessions that allow non-conventional oil and gas contracts using a gross scheme split, never be applied.
However, according to him, there are several things that must be ensured in order to split the gross scheme attractive for investors. "We want to emphasize that for existing investors, the criterion is that the government should offer better. Otherwise, they will not take. It's a matter of economics that must be discussed. This, indeed, be proven over time, "he said.
Another thing that should be ensured, says Sammy Hamzah, is the role of the Working Unit of Upstream Oil and Gas (SKK Migas) to manage contracts with gross schemes split. Investors want to make sure whether the business process will be simple and the time required until the production phase
will be shorter.
Advisory Board Indonesian Geologists Association (IAG) Rovicky Dwi Putrohari also criticized the gross scheme split. Some of the incentives offered by the government split always considered linear with the scale of the project. "In fact, it could be the reality is different, such as investment costs to a depth of five meters of blocks may be larger than that has a depth of 50 meters," he said.
He added, there are few incentives that would lead to a split count the economic uncertainty, the price of oil. "Split will change because national oil price (ICP) is reviewed every month. How can commercial that change each month? Whether to continue to operate or not, should be considered, "he said.
Fix Fiscal Policy
Separately, President of the Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Christina Verchere hope the government strengthen fiscal schemes in the oil and gas contracts offered to oil and gas companies. This is to ensure that oil and gas investment in Indonesia back excited and boosting the growth of the national economy.
IPA stated, in the past, the energy sector is the largest contributor to the Indonesian acceptance. In the future, Indonesia needs to ensure that this sector has been retained to be the driver of economic growth. What does this fiscal scheme, Christina did not want to expose. According to him, the fiscal scheme of oil and gas business in each country is a government authority of each country. Moreover, the fiscal scheme is structured to follow the existing regulations and conditions of oil and gas resources in each country.
"We were advised to look for the fiscal scheme to attract investors to Indonesia, the scheme is more competitive compared to other countries. In the next year, we wait for changes that improve the investment climate, "
he said.
Tenny Wibowo Director of the IPA added, with declining oil prices drastically in the past two years, the size of oil and gas reserves that can be developed economically limited. This is considering the wide acceptance in the world oil and gas companies trimmed so that the funds available for investment are also reduced. "This should be a concern. If the investment climate is not good, I worry later reduced (funds) invested in Indonesia, "he said.
According to Christina, it is required of investors Iain is a foregone conclusion. Oil and gas business needs capital big. Not only that, these businesses face uncertainty. That is why, in order to reduce the risk, it needs regulatory certainty that can be used as a basis in a matter of economics of the project.
Christina continued, IPA appreciates the government's measures to improve the investment climate gas. Throughout this year, the IPA and the government establish intense communication to discuss a number of issues
and regulations in order to facilitate oil and gas business in Indonesia. IPA is also invited to discuss the implementation of contracts with gross schemes split on conventional oil and gas. "Gross split would indeed simplify business processes. But what investors are looking for is a regulatory system that is predictable and attractive fiscal scheme. This fiscal scheme is as important as the simplification of business processes, "said Christina.
Looking ahead, the IPA will continue to communicate with the government. IPA will discuss some of the new regulations, including a regulation that obliges oil companies take off by 10% equity participation to local governments.
Member of Commission VII of the House of Representatives Dito Ganinduto said that, although externally the oil and gas business conditions have improved, especially in terms of price, the investor is required legal certainty and consistency of government policy.
"Investor wants the rules do not change, so that they can plan long-term investment activity. The oil and gas investment and long-term investments have a high risk, so the issue of legal certainty is very important, "said Dito.
He took the example of a change in the types of oil and gas production sharing contract be split gross. According Dito, the government has never explained this concept in front of the Parliament and the Economic Observer Energy Hymn Mada University (UGM) Fahmi Radhi said the outlook for oil and gas investment in 2017 was much better than in 2016, in line with rising oil prices. "My estimate oil prices to reach a new balance in the range of US $ 57-60 per barrel," said Fahmi, who is also a former member of the Oil and Gas Governance Team.
Oil and gas companies, particularly large-scale investment in 2016 hold, this year will re-invest them to boost production. However, the upward trend in oil and gas upstream investment will not only Indonesia but also experienced by other countries, especially the Middle East and Vietnam. "So there will be fierce competition to compete for investors. The countries will be competing to provide convenience to attract oil and gas investment had stagnated, "said Fahmi.
Fahmi also assess gross split system need to be supplemented with various facilities, particularly in terms of licensing both the central and local governments. Based on data from SKK Migas, oil and gas investment in Indonesia continues to increase during 2010-2013. In 2010, oil and gas investments were approximately US% 11 billion. This figure rose to US $ 14 billion in 2011, US $ 17 billion in 2012, and reached US $ 18 billion in 2013.
After the period, investments in oil and gas directly trimmed so the price of oil began to fall in late 2014. In 2014, oil and gas investments were recorded in the range of US $ 18 billion. But in the past year, oil and gas investment significantly trimmed down to around US $ 14 billion. While this year, the realization of oil and gas investment is only predicted to reach US $ 11.4 billion.
IN INDONESIAN
Investasi Hulu Migas US$ 4-50 Miliar
Di tengah kekhawatiran akan kebijakan baru Presiden AS Donald Trump, kegiatan investasi di hulu migas yang sempat menurun dalam dua tahun terakhir kembali meningkat 3% menjadi US$ 450 miliar tahun ini. Harga minyak mentah diperkirakan sedikit terangkat dengan break even pada harga US$ 45 per barel. Tahun ini, harga minyak mentah Brent diperkirakan mencapai rata-rata US$ 57 per barel, naik 30% dari US$ 44 per barel pada tahun 2016 “Kegiatan perusahaan migas di hulu mulai meningkat kembali tahun ini. Sedangkan harga minyak mentah, kendati meningkat, tidak akan mengalami lonjakan berarti,” ungkap Andrew Harwood, analis minyak dan gas dari Wood Mackenzie Singapura.
Merespons permintaan akan minyak mentah yang kembali meningkat, perusahaan hulu migas akan menaikkan produksi, termasuk Amerika Serikat di bawah pemerintahan baru. Lonjakan harga yang besar tidak akan terjadi karena penambahan pasokan akan menekan harga.
Meski naik 3%, kata Andrew, total investasi hulu migas tahun ini masih lebih rendah 40% dibanding tahun 2014. Berbeda dengan masa sebelumnya, perusahaan migas kini beralih dari proyek migas yang besar dan kompleks ke proyek yang lebih kecil dengan tingkat pengembalian modal lebih cepat. “Efisiensi menjadi perhatian utama dengan memanfaatkan teknologi mutakhir,” ujar dia.
Kegiatan investasi di hulu migas, kata Andrew, sangat tergantung pada regulasi sebuah negara. Para investor umumnya membandingkan prospek investasi dan kebijakan fiskal hulu migas di satu negara dengan negara lain. Ada negara yang bagus prospeknya, tapi kurang bagus kebijakan fiskalnya. Ada negara yang bagus kedua-duanya, namun ada pula yang kurang bagus kedua-duanya.
Investasi hulu migas di Indonesia, demikian Andrew, dinilai cukup prospektif dan kebijakan fiskal cukup memberikan insentif. Sedangkan Malaysia dinilai lebih prospektif dari Indonesia. Tapi, kebijakan fiskalnya kalah menarik dibanding Indonesia. Malaysia tidak memberikan insentif sebesar Indonesia. Menurut Wood Mackenzie, Brasil dan Mexico memiliki prospek yang bagus, tapi kebijakan fiskalnya kurang mendukung.
Sementara Norwegia, Mozambique, dan Nigeria lebih bagus dari Indonesia dalam insentif fiskal dan prospek investasi. Penilaian Wood Mackenzie sudah mempertimbangkan kebijakan gross split yang mulai diterapkan pemerintah. Meski belum ada investor asing yang memanfaatkannya, skema bagi hasil dalam gross split dinilai cukup menarik. Hingga hari ini, baru Blok Offshore North-West Java Pertamina, yang memanfaatkan kebijakan baru ini.
Skema pembagian gross split diberlakukan bagi perusahaan baru. Sedang perusahaan yang sedang berjalan tetap mengacu peraturan lama yang berbasis cost recovery. Vice President External Relations SKK Migas Taslim Z Yunus menjelaskan, pihaknya belum bisa menilai efektivitas regulasi baru yang diterapkan lewat Peraturan Menteri ESDM itu. “Kebijakannya masih baru. Investor masih mempelajari,” ujarnya.
Kalangan pelaku bisnis hulu migas yang hadir dalam diskusi optimistis, investasi di hulu migas di Indonesia mulai meningkat tahun ini. Vice President Development and Relations Conoco Phillips Joang Laksanto mengatakan, gairah investasi migas tahun ini lebih disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga minyak mentah. Bukan karena kebijakan pemerintah yang belum teruji. Dalam menghitung bagi hasil gross split, komponen yang diperhitungkan adalah cadangan migas, biaya investasi, dan harga. “Mestinya perhitungan ini diserahkan saja pada investor. Tapi, pengelolaan migas di hulu masih tunduk pada Undang-Undang Migas,” ungkapnya.
Investasi di hulu migas di Indonesia, kata Joang, cukup berat. Karena success ratio di bawah 10%, jauh di bawah rata-rata dunia yang mencapai 30%. Ketika melakukan eksplorasi, biaya besar sudah harus dikeluarkan
investor untuk sebuah keberhasilan di bawah 10%. Seperti diketahui, mulai Januari 2017, pemerintah mengubah skema kontrak bagi hasil (PSC) pada kontrak-kontrak baru migas. Jika yang digunakan sebelumnya adalah skema biaya yang dapat dikembalikan (cost recovery) maka yang diterapkan dalam aturan baru adalah skema gross split.
Ketentuan itu dituangkan dalam Peraturan Menteri ESDM No 8 Tahun 2017 tentang Kontrak Bagi Hasil Gross Split. Wakil Menteri ESDM Arcandra Tahar menyatakan, penerapan skema gross split atau bagi hasil kotor dalam kontrak kerja sama (production sharing contract/ PSC) migas tidak akan merugikan negara. Skema ini justru membuat negara terhindar dari potensi membengkaknya biaya proyek migas, sehingga penerimaan negara yang diperoleh dari sektor migas lebih pasti dan terjamin.
Arcandra menegaskan, investor yang merasa split yang diperolehnya masih kurang, dapat menyampaikannya kepada pemerintah. Bagi hasil setelah memasukkan variable split dan progressive split masih terbuka untuk diubah. “Kalau dari komersial, ada ruang untuk negosiasi kurang lebih 5%,” tutur dia.
Hal itu, kata Arcandra, sesuai Pasal 7 Peraturan Menteri ESDM No 8 Tahun 2017 tentang Kontrak Bagi Hasil Gross Split yang menjadi dasar penerapan gross split. Dalam beleid ini disebutkan, ketika perhitungan komersialisasi lapangan tidak mencapai keekonomian tertentu, kontraktor mendapat tambahan split maksimal 5%. “Sebaliknya, dalam perhitungan komersialisasi lapangan melebihi keekonomian tertentu, negara boleh mengambil tarnbahan split 5%,” tutur dia.
Kurang Menarik
Sementara itu, investor menilai skema gross split yang ditawarkan pemerintah masih kurang menarik. Investor menginginkan, meski skema kontrak berganti menjadi gross split, bagi hasil yang diterima minimal sama dengan ketika memakai skema cost recovery. Investor juga meminta ada tambahan insentif untuk eksplorasi. Selain itu, terdapat ketidakpastian terkait pelaksanaan kemudahan proses bisnis yang dijanjikan pemerintah.
Chief Executive Officer (CED) & President PT Ephindo Sammy Hamzah mengatakan, investor migas non-konvensional mengusulkan penerapan skema gross split dalam kontrak migas agar proyek lebih menarik. Karena itu, kata Sammy, pihaknya sangat mengapresiasi upaya pemerintah yang kemudian menerbitkan peraturan menteri soal gross split. Apalagi Peraturan Menteri 38/2015 tentang Percepatan Pengusahaan Migas Non-konvensional yang memungkinkan kontrak migas non-konvensional menggunakan skema gross split, tak kunjung dapat diterapkan.
Namun, menurut dia, ada beberapa hal yang harus dipastikan agar skema gross split menarik bagi investor. “Kami ingin tekankan bahwa bagi investor eksisting, standarnya adalah pemerintah harus menawarkan yang lebih baik. Kalau tidak, mereka tidak akan ambil. Ini soal keekonomian saja yang harus dibicarakan. Ini memang baru akan terbukti seiring dengan berjalannya waktu,” papar dia.
Hal lain yang harus dipastikan, kata Sammy Hamzah, adalah peran Satuan Kerja Kerja Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Minyak dan Gas Bumi (SKK Migas) dalam mengelola kontrak dengan skema gross split. Investor ingin memastikan apakah benar proses bisnis akan lebih simpel dan waktu yang dibutuhkan sampai tahap produksi
bakal lebih pendek.
Dewan Penasihat Ikatan Ahli Geologi Indonesia (IAG) Rovicky Dwi Putrohari juga mengkritisi skema gross split. Beberapa insentif split yang ditawarkan pemerintah selalu dianggap linier dengan skala proyek. “Padahal,
bisa jadi kenyataannya berbeda, seperti biaya investasi untuk blok kedalaman lima meter bisa jadi lebih besar dari yang memiliki kedalaman 50 meter,” tutur dia.
Dia menambahkan, ada beberapa insentif split yang justru menimbulkan ketidakpastian hitungan keekonomian, yakni harga minyak. “Split akan berubah karena harga minyak nasional (ICP) ditinjau setiap bulan. Bagaimana bisa komersial kalau berubah tiap bulan? Apakah akan terus beroperasi atau tidak, ini harus dipikirkan,” kata dia.
Perbaiki Kebijakan Fiskal
Dihubungi terpisah, Presiden Indonesia Petroleum Association (IPA) Christina Verchere berharap pemerintah memperkuat skema fiskal dalam kontrak migas yang ditawarkan kepada perusahaan migas. Hal ini guna memastikan agar investasi migas di Indonesia kembali bergairah sehingga mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional.
IPA menyatakan, di masa lalu, sektor energi merupakan penyumbang terbesar penerimaan bagi Indonesia. Ke depannya, Indonesia perlu memastikan agar sektor ini dipertahankan agar menjadi pendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi.
Seperti apa skema fiskal ini, Christina tidak mau memaparkan. Menurut dia, skema fiskal bisnis migas di setiap negara merupakan wewenang pemerintah negara masing-masing. Apalagi, skema fiskal ini disusun dengan mengikuti regulasi yang berlaku dan kondisi sumber daya migas di setiap negara.
“Kami menyarankan untuk dicarikan skema fiskal yang dapat menarik investor ke Indonesia, skema yang lebih kompetitif dibandingkan dengan negara lain. Pada tahun depan, kami menunggu perubahan yang meningkatkan iklim investasi,”
tuturnya.
Direktur IPA Tenny Wibowo menambahkan, dengan menurunnya harga minyak yang sangat drastis dalam dua tahun ini, ukuran cadangan migas yang dapat dikembangkan secara ekonomis menjadi terbatas. Hal ini mengingat penerimaan seluruh perusahaan migas di dunia terpangkas sehingga dana yang tersedia untuk investasi juga berkurang. “Ini harus jadi perhatian. Kalau iklim investasi kurang bagus, saya khawatir nantinya berkurang (dana) yang ditanamkan di Indonesia,” kata dia.
Menurut Christina, hal Iain yang dibutuhkan investor adalah kepastian. Bisnis migas membutuhkan modal besar. Tak hanya itu, bisnis ini menghadapi ketidakpastian. Itu sebabnya, untuk mengurangi risiko, dibutuhkan kepastian regulasi yang bisa dijadikan dasar dalam hitungan keekonomian proyek.
Christina melanjutkan, IPA mengapresiasi langkah pemerintah untuk memperbaiki iklim investasi migas. Sepanjang tahun ini, IPA dan pemerintah menjalin komunikasi yang intens guna membahas sejumlah masalah
dan regulasi guna mempermudah bisnis migas di Indonesia. IPA juga diajak membahas penerapan kontrak dengan skema gross split pada migas konvensional. “Gross split memang akan menyederhanakan proses bisnis. Tetapi apa yang dicari investor adalah sistem regulasi yang dapat diprediksi dan skema fiskal yang menarik. Skema fiskal ini sama pentingnya dengan simplifikasi proses bisnis,” kata Christina.
Ke depannya, IPA akan terus berkomunikasi dengan pemerintah. IPA akan membahas beberapa regulasi baru, termasuk beleid yang mewajibkan perusahaan migas melepas sebesar 10% hak partisipasinya ke pemerintah daerah.
Anggota Komisi VII DPR RI Dito Ganinduto mengatakan, meski secara eksternal kondisi bisnis migas mengalami perbaikan, khususnya dari sisi harga, yang dibutuhkan investor adalah kepastian hukum dan konsistensi kebijakan dari pemerintah.
“Investor maunya peraturan jangan berubah-ubah, supaya mereka bisa merencanakan kegiatan investasi jangka panjang. Investasi migas itu investasi jangka panjang dan memiliki risiko tinggi, jadi masalah kepastian hukum ini sangat penting," kata Dito.
Dia ambil contoh perubahan jenis kontrak migas dari production sharing menjadi gross split. Menurut Dito, pemerintah belum pernah memaparkan konsep ini di hadapan DPR Pengamat Ekonomi dan Energi Universitas Gajah Madah (UGM) Fahmi Radhi mengatakan, prospek investasi migas 2017 memang jauh lebih baik dibanding 2016, sejalan dengan meningkatnya harga minyak. “Perkiraan saya harga minyak akan mencapai keseimbangan baru di kisaran US$ 57-60 per barel,” kata Fahmi yang juga mantan anggota Tim Tata Kelola Migas.
Perusahaan-perusahaan migas, khususnya skala besar yang pada tahun 2016 menahan investasi, pada tahun ini akan kembali menanamkan investasi mereka untuk menggenjot produksi. Namun, Tren peningkatan investasi hulu migas ini tidak hanya akan dialami oleh Indonesia tapi juga negara-negara lain terutama Timur Tengah dan Vietnam. “Jadi akan ada persaingan ketat untuk memperebutkan investor. Negara-negara akan berlomba-lomba memberikan kemudahan untuk menarik investasi migas yang sempat stagnan,” kata Fahmi.
Fahmi juga menilai sistem gross split perlu ditambah dengan berbagai kemudahan, khususnya dalam hal perizinan baik oleh pemerintah pusat maupun daerah. Berdasarkan data SKK Migas, investasi migas di Indonesia terus meningkat selama 2010-2013. Pada 2010, investasi migas tercatat sekitar US% 11 miliar. Angka ini kemudian naik menjadi US$ 14 miliar pada 2011, US$ 17 miliar pada 2012, dan mencapai US$ 18 miliar pada 2013.
Periode setalah itu, investasi migas langsung terpangkas begitu harga minyak mulai turun pada akhir 2014. Pada 2014, investasi migas tercatat masih di kisaran US$ 18 miliar. Namun pada tahun lalu, investasi migas terpangkas signifikan menjadi sekitar US$ 14 miliar. Sementara pada tahun ini, realisasi investasi migas diprediksi hanya mencapai US$ 11,4 miliar.
Investor Daily, Page-1, Tuesday, Jan, 24, 2017
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