Jonan Dismissed Forecast

INDONESIA predicted gas deficit of 500 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD) in 2019. To close the gap between demand and supply, Indonesia needs to import liquefied natural gas / LNG. However, Minister Ignatius Jonan believe importation of LNG is not as fast as forecast.

The prediction of domestic gas production by 2019 is still safe. The government is encouraging cooperation contract (PSC) to spur oil and gas lifting, as well as accelerate the production time oil and gas projects of strategic, such as the Tangguh LNG managed by BP Indonesia, deepwater project in (IDD) by Chevron Indonesia, and the Offshore North West Java ( ONWJ) arable PT Pertamina Hulu Energi. "The assumption (to import LNG in 2019) is not necessarily true. Government and SKK Migas was pushing the contractor to increase production, "said Jonan in West Papua

Jonan helped ward off a projected deficit widened gas in the country amounted to 4,000 MMSCFD in 2030. Jonan not deny the growth of domestic gas consumption. However, the production target number of strategic oil and gas field development say they are capable of supporting domestic demand. For example Masela with potential gas content of 10.7 tcf are believed to be in production by 2030.

The government is still awaiting the completion of the pre-front end engineering design (FEED) of Inpex Corporation as an investor. "Soon involvement (pre-FEED) Masela completed. If it is not finished, give to others just let me quickly. Essentially deadline later this month, "said Jonan.

SKK Migas head Amien looked Sunaryadi gas importation can occur if there is a spike in gas consumption in the industrial sector which is one of the country's largest gas consumer, in addition to the electricity sector.

Estimates Amien, gas consumption growth of these two sectors in 2019 does not exceed 10% -12% assuming economic growth of 5% -6%. "If there is a drastic change, eg industry in Belawan, North Sumatra, busy-busy moving into gas, LNG imports could happen in 2019," said Amien

BP Regional President Asia Pacific Indonesia Christina Verchere said Indonesia did not need to rush to import LNG. His side are now speeding Train III project capacity of 3.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). The project with an investment of US $ 8 billion is targeted for production in 2020. "The expansion of Tangguh is important to reach an increasingly competitive market."

As for the 75% of gas production from Train III later absorbed by the allocation PLN equivalent of 3,000 Mw. Tangguh gas is also allocated to support the electrical system in West Papua with a capacity of 100 Mw, and fertilizer factories around Teluk Bintuni

IN INDONESIAN

Jonan Menepis Ramalan

INDONESIA diramal defisit gas 500 juta standar kaki kubik per hari (mmscfd) pada 2019. Untuk menutup selisih antara permintaan dan pasokan, Indonesia perlu mengimpor liquefied natural gas/LNG.  Namun, Menteri ESDM Ignasius Jonan meyakini importasi LNG tidak secepat ramalan.

Prediksinya produksi gas domestik hingga 2019 masih aman. Pemerintah sedang mendorong kontraktor kontrak kerja sama (KKKS) untuk memacu lifting migas, sekaligus mempercepat waktu produksi proyek-proyek migas strategis, seperti Kilang Tangguh LNG kelolaan BP Indonesia, proyek laut dalam (IDD) oleh Chevron Indonesia, dan Blok Offshore North West Jawa (ONWJ) garapan PT Pertamina Hulu Energi. “Asumsi (harus impor LNG di 2019) belum tentu benar. Pemerintah dan SKK Migas sedang mendorong kontraktor meningkatkan produksi,” kata Jonan di Papua Barat

Jonan turut menepis proyeksi defisit gas di Tanah Air melebar sebesar 4.000 mmscfd pada 2030. Jonan tidak memungkiri adanya pertumbuhan konsumsi gas domestik. Namun, target produksi sejumlah pengembangan lapangan migas strategis dikatakannya masih mampu mendukung kebutuhan domestik. Misalnya Blok Masela dengan potensi kandungan gas 10,7 tcf diyakini bisa berproduksi sebelum 2030. 

Pemerintah kini masih menunggu penyelesaian pre-front end engineering design (FEED) dari Inpex Corporation selaku investor. “Sebentar Iagi (pre-FEED) Masela selesai. Kalau tidak selesai, berikan ke orang lain saja biar cepat. Intinya deadline akhir bulan ini,” kata Jonan.

Kepala SKK Migas Amien Sunaryadi memandang importasi gas bisa terjadi jika ada lonjakan konsumsi gas di sektor industri yang merupakan salah satu konsumen gas terbesar Tanah Air, di samping sektor ketenagalistrikan.

Estimasi Amien, pertumbuhan konsumsi gas dari dua sektor tersebut pada 2019 tidak melebihi 10%-12% dengan asumsi pertumbuhan ekonomi 5%-6%. “Kalau ada perubahan drastis, misalnya industri di Belawan, Sumatra Utara, ramai-ramai pindah ke gas, bisa saja terjadi impor LNG di 2019,” kata  Amien

BP Regional President Asia Pacific Indonesia Christina Verchere mengatakan Indonesia tidak perlu tergesa mengimpor LNG. Pihaknya kini sedang mengebut pengerjaan proyek Train III berkapasitas 3,5 juta ton per tahun (mtpa). Proyek dengan investasi US$ 8 miliar itu ditargetkan berproduksi di 2020. “Ekspansi Kilang Tangguh penting untuk menggapai pasar yang makin kompetitif.”

Adapun 75% produksi gas dari Train III nanti diserap PLN dengan alokasi setara 3.000 Mw. Gas Tangguh juga dialokasikan untuk menyokong sistem kelistrikan di Papua Barat dengan kapasitas 100 Mw, dan pabrik pupuk di sekitar Teluk Bintuni

Media Indonesia, Page-18, Monday, Feb, 13, 2017