Fuel Price Can Still Be Hold

The government still could not raise fuel prices despite the trend of rising world oil prices. If fuel prices rise, inflation is expected to reach 5 percent this year.

Executive Director of the Institute Komaidi ReforMiner Notonegoro said, although there is a trend in world oil prices rise, the amount is insignificant. Moreover, the rupiah against the US dollar in recent times relatively stable. With these assumptions, the potential rise in the price of fuel oil (BBM) is quite small.

"If it should be increased because oil prices are rising, that increase should be distributed in time or not in the near future," said Komaidi

Referring to the Bloomberg page on Friday afternoon (10/3), the price of Brent crude pegged to 52.32 dollars per barrel and WTI 49.48 dollars per barrel. The price was not much different in the same period last year when the government lowered fuel prices on the first April 2016.

When the premium price dropped from Rp 6,950 to Rp 6,450 per liter and diesel prices down from Rp 5,650 to Rp 5,150 per liter.

Fueling Inflation

Meanwhile, Chief Representative of Bank Indonesia East Java province Difi Ahmad Johansyah said, if the government raised fuel prices in the next 1-2 months time, inflation could rise. Moreover, the increase in the cost of motor vehicle tax and electricity tariff increases became the biggest contributor to inflation in January 2017.

"We recommend that (oil prices) should not be increased because there are two components that rose last month, namely the motor tax and electricity tariffs. Moreover, the price of chili which ranks third contributor to inflation is still high and a burden on society, "said Difi.

Lecturer at the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, Lana Soelistianingsih, say, inflation is projected to rise to 5-per cent if fuel prices increased. In fact, the national inflation rate in February 2017 was recorded at 3.83 percent.

"The assumption is that if the world oil prices touched 60 dollars per barrel, inflation could reach 5.32 percent to 5.53 percent," said Lana.

IN INDONESIAN

Harga Bahan Bakar Minyak Masih Bisa Ditahan

Pemerintah masih bisa tidak menaikkan harga bahan bakar minyak walaupun ada tren kenaikan harga minyak dunia. Jika harga bahan bakar minyak naik, inflasi diperkirakan bisa mencapai 5 persen pada tahun ini.

Direktur Eksekutif ReforMiner Institute Komaidi Notonegoro mengatakan, meskipun ada kecenderungan harga minyak dunia naik, besarannya tidak terlalu signifikan. Apalagi nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar AS dalam beberapa waktu terakhir relatif stabil. Dengan asumsi tersebut, potensi kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) cukup kecil.

”Bila memang harus dinaikkan karena harga minyak dunia sedang naik, kenaikan itu sebaiknya bisa di distribusikan waktunya atau tidak dilakukan dalam waktu dekat,” kata Komaidi

Mengacu pada laman Bloomberg pada Jumat sore (10/3), harga minyak jenis Brent dipatok 52,32 dollar AS per barrel dan WTI 49,48 dollar AS per barrel. Harga tersebut tidak jauh berbeda pada periode sama tahun lalu saat pemerintah menurunkan harga BBM pada I April 2016.

    Saat itu harga premium turun dari Rp 6.950 menjadi Rp 6.450 per liter dan harga solar turun dari Rp 5.650 menjadi Rp 5.150 per liter. 

Memicu inflasi

Sementara itu, Kepala Perwakilan Bank Indonesia Provinsi Jawa Timur Difi Ahmad Johansyah mengatakan, apabila pemerintah menaikkan harga BBM dalam Waktu 1-2 bulan ke depan, inflasi bisa naik. Apalagi, kenaikan biaya pajak kendaraan bermotor dan kenaikan tarif listrik menjadi penyumbang inflasi terbesar pada Januari 2017.

”Sebaiknya (harga BBM) jangan dinaikkan karena sudah ada dua komponen yang naik bulan lalu, yakni pajak motor dan tarif listrik. Terlebih lagi harga cabai rawit yang menempati urutan ketiga penyumbang inflasi masih tinggi dan membebani masyarakat,” ujar Difi.

Pengajar pada Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Indonesia, Lana Soelistianingsih, mengatakan, inflasi berpotensi naik menjadi 5-persen apabila harga BBM dinaikkan. Padahal, angka inflasi nasional pada Februari 2017 tercatat sebesar 3,83 persen.

”Asumsinya, apabila harga minyak dunia menyentuh 60 dollar AS per barrel, inflasi bisa mencapai 5,32 persen hingga 5,53 persen,” kata Lana.

Kompas, Page-18, Saturday, March, 11, 2017