Rising commodity prices of crude oil up to around US $ 47 per barrel to make the government is optimistic that the results of non-tax revenue or non-tax revenues will also increase to close to the target in the Budget 2017.
In addition to prices creeping up, the increase in production (lifting) of crude oil and the strengthening of the rupiah against the US dollar helped reinforce the non-tax revenues from oil and gas. In Budget 2017, the contribution of non-tax revenues targeted to 14.3% of total revenues and 85.6% of tax revenues, and the remaining 0.1% of the grant.
There is a tendency of our oil and gas revenues will exceed the target in the budget, so that we will later revisions in the state budget, "said Director General of Budget, Ministry of Finance Askolani in Jacana, last weekend.
He admitted that the government not know what the value is definitely on the assumption has not been established. Askolani said it will decide on the final seconds before the state budget proposed changes. In Budget 2017, the government established oil and gas revenues from natural resources around Rp 63.7 trillion, assuming the Indonesian crude oil price (ICP) at US $ 45 per barrel.
However, the price of the main energy source in the world that actually has decreased to 13.8%. Economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) Bhima Yudhistira proposed that the government does not need to rush to make revisions for oil demand in the global market is still low. "I suggest better moderate just like the budget target in 2017 [US $ 45 per barrel]."
If the government is not careful, he said that when the price of oil can be turned down and it is feared a huge effect on revenues. Currently the price of crude oil has fallen dramatically in the past week. Trimming China's economic projections and the US oil supply strong influence the decline in global oil prices.
In addition, he saw action the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut production in order to hoist the oil prices to be temporary because the US back to producing massive oil.
Data Energy information Administration (EIA) showed the level of US oil production rose 20,000 barrels to the 9.13 million barrels per day (bpd). This figure is the highest level since February 2016. Indef projecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will move in the level of US $ 47 ~ US $ 48 per barrel this week.
SMALL CHANCE
The Indonesian Economist Economic Intelligence (IEI) Sunarsip support the government's move given the trend opportunities in oil prices to go back down to a level below US $ 40 a barrel is very small. Although OPEC has not received a clear commitment of some member states to cut production, OPEC steps he believes will happen this year.
By looking at the sentiment, he believes oil prices could rise to above $ 50 a barrel this year, although the condition is still likely to fluctuate. This spike will provide opportunities increase in non-tax revenues from oil and gas sector.
"I think the government's revised plan is no urgency from the beginning of time putting together a conservative because the target is too low on the other side of economic growth will be higher," he said.
IN INDONESIAN
PNBP Migas Berpeluang Dinaikkan
Kenaikan harga komoditas minyak mentah hingga ke kisaran US$ 47 per barel membuat pemerintah optimistis hasil penerimaan negara bukan pajak atau PNBP akan ikut meningkat hingga mendekati target dalam APBN 2017.
Selain harga yang merangkak naik, kenaikan produksi (lifting) minyak mentah dan menguatnya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS turut memperkuat PNBP dari migas. Dalam APBN 2017, kontribusi PNBP ditargetkan 14,3% dari total penerimaan negara dan 85,6% dari penerimaan perpajakan, dan sisanya 0,1% hibah.
Ada tendensi penerimaan migas kita akan melebihi target di APBN, sehingga nanti akan kita revisi di APBN-P,” ujar Dirjen Anggaran Kementerian Keuangan Askolani di Jakana, akhir pekan lalu.
Dia mengakui pemerintah belum tahu berapa nilai pasti karena asumsinya belum ditetapkan. Askolani menuturkan pihaknya akan memutuskan pada detik-detik terakhir sebelum APBN Perubahan diusulkan. Dalam APBN 2017, pemerintah menetapkan penerimaan dari SDA migas sekitar Rp 63,7 triliun dengan asumsi harga minyak mentah Indonesia (ICP) sebesar US$45 per barel.
Namun, harga bahan sumber energi utama di dunia itu sebenarnya mengalami penurunan hingga 13,8%. Ekonom Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Bhima Yudhistira mengusulkan pemerintah tidak perlu terburu-buru untuk melakukan revisi karena permintaan minyak di pasar global masih rendah. “Saya sarankan lebih baik moderat saja seperti target APBN 2017 [US$45 per barel].”
Jika pemerintah tidak hati-hati, dia menuturkan ketika harga minyak dapat berbalik turun dan dikhawatirkan memberi efek besar terhadap penerimaan. Saat ini harga minyak mentah turun drastis pada satu pekan terakhir. Pemangkasan proyeksi ekonomi China dan suplai minyak Amerika Serikat yang kuat turut mempengaruhi penurunan harga minyak global.
Selain itu, dia melihat langkah Organisasi Negara-negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) untuk memangkas produksi demi mengerek harga minyak hanya bersifat temporer karena AS kembali memproduksi minyak besar-besaran.
Data Energy information Administration (EIA) AS menunjukkan tingkat produksi minyak AS naik 20.000 barel menuju 9,13 juta barel per hari (bph). Angka ini merupakan level tertinggi sejak Februari 2016. Indef memproyeksikan West Texas Intermediate (WTI) akan bergerak di level US$47~US$48 per barel pada pekan ini.
PELUANG KECIL
Ekonom The Indonesia Economic Intelligence (IEI) Sunarsip mendukung langkah pemerintah mengingat tren peluang harga minyak untuk kembali turun ke level di bawah US$ 40 per barel sangat kecil. Meskipun OPEC belum mendapatkan komitmen yang jelas dari beberapa negara anggota untuk pemangkasan produksi, dia yakin langkah OPEC akan terjadi tahun ini.
Dengan melihat sentimen tersebut, dia yakin harga minyak bisa naik hingga di atas US$ 50 per barel pada tahun ini walaupun kondisi saat ini masih cenderung bergejolak. Lonjakan ini akan memberikan peluang kenaikan PNBP dari sektor migas.
“Saya kira rencana pemerintah melakukan revisi memang ada urgensinya dari awal waktu menyusun konservatif karena memasang target terlalu rendah di sisi lain pertumbuhan ekonomi akan lebih tinggi," tegasnya.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-4, Monday, March, 27, 2017
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