Markets fear restrictions on oil production is not running
The decline in crude oil prices increasingly significant. Although already down streak in five days, analysts predict the price of black gold could still be weakened and could have an impact on the price of other commodities.
As at 17:23 pm, Wednesday (22/3), the price of light sweet crude contract in May 2017 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange plummeted 1.53% to US $ 47.56 per barrel compared to the previous day. Within a week, the price of oil has dropped 3.80%.
This decline affects the price of other energy commodities. The price of coal and natural gas contribute apparently corrected. Only palm oil are able to maintain its gains. "As a strategic commodity, if low oil prices, other commodity prices will also be lower," said Deddy Yusuf Siregar, Asia analyst Tradepoint
Futures.
As at 17:40 pm yesterday, the price of coal fell 2.01% to US $ 77.5 per metric ton from the previous day. Then the price of natural gas fell 1.16% to US $ 3,057 per mmbtu. While the price of CPO rose 12:28% to RM 2,817 per metric ton.
Even so, according to Deddy, not all energy commodities will continue to follow oil. He considered only the price potential natural gas continued to weaken during the first half of this year, following weakening oil prices. The reason winter is over will make the global natural gas demand increasingly difficult.
For coal, Deddy saw high demand from Asia-Pacific countries, such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, are still likely to lift prices.
CPO prices also can still ride. CPO demand normally rises ahead of Ramadan, because the middle eastern countries increase its palm oil stocks. Palm oil consumption will also increase. "Strengthening this time also supported by the potential decline in Malaysian palm oil production of about 1.4% in the month February, "said Deddy.
While Nizar Rithy, analysts SoeGee Futures, rate, drop in oil prices this time has not changed the long-term trend. According to. he, oil long-term trend is still positive. So he did not see the impact on commodity price movements of energy, such as natural gas, coal or CPO.
The impact will be felt if the trend had turned bearish long term. Examples of when oil prices touched $ 26 per barrel in 2016.
Short-term trends
Nizar said, the burden of the increase in US supplies continue to overshadow the movement of oil prices. Last week, the American Petroleum Institute recorded a weekly US crude stocks rose 4.53 million barrels. Wednesday morning US time, the Energy Information Administration will announce the position of the latest US oil stocks.
Predictions, US oil reserves rose by 1.9 million barel, closing decreasing the supply of 200,000 barrels previous week. Even a Bloomberg survey predicted US crude stocks last week rose by 3 million barrels to 531.2 million barrels so.
Since the beginning of 2017, US oil stocks had increased by about 49 million barrels. "It's bad for the market because it means that OPEC production cuts are not able to make the supply in the global market is reduced," said Nizar.
Not only that, the two largest shipping port in Libya, namely Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, ready to resume operations after a two-week halt due to the military offensive. It will add supply to the oil market. Oil production Libya in February 2017 reportedly increased to 646,000 barrels, compared to the previous month's 621,000 barrels per day.
According to Deddy, investors are still worried about global supplies of crude oil will increase. "If US targets to increase the production of year-end 2017 to 9 million barrels, while OPEC cuts only until mid-year, increase oil supply clear, ".
Today (23/3) Nizar predicts WTI oil price potential technical rebound and move between US $ 46.8 and US $ 48 per barrel. The next week prices will move between US $ 46.5-Us $ 49 per barrel. According to Deddy analysis, today's oil prices weaken and move between US $ 46.71 and US $ 48.41 per barrel. The next week the price moves between US $ 46.39-US $ 48 per barrel.
IN INDONESIAN
Jangka Pendek, Harga Minyak Masih Bearish
Pasar khawatir pembatasan produksi minyak tidak berjalan
Penurunan harga minyak mentah semakin signifikan. Meski sudah turun beruntun dalam lima hari terakhir, analis memprediksi harga emas hitam ini masih bisa melemah dan akan bisa berdampak pada harga komoditas lain.
Per pukul 17.23 WIB, Rabu (22/3), harga minyak jenis light sweet kontrak pengiriman Mei 2017 di New York Mercantile Exchange menurun drastis 1,53% ke US$ 47,56 per barel dibanding hari sebelumnya. Dalam sepekan, harga minyak sudah turun 3,80%.
Penurunan ini mempengaruhi harga komoditas energi lainnya. Harga batubara dan gas alam rupanya turut terkoreksi. Hanya minyak sawit saja yang mampu mempertahankan penguatannya. “Sebagai komoditas strategis, kalau harga minyak rendah, harga komoditas lain juga akan rendah,” kata Deddy Yusuf Siregar, analis Asia Tradepoint Futures.
Per pukul 17.40 WIB kemarin, harga batubara terkoreksi 2,01% ke US$ 77,5 per metrik ton dari hari sebelumnya. Kemudian harga gas alam melemah 1,16% ke US$ 3.057 per mmbtu. Sedangkan harga CPO masih menguat 0.28% jadi RM 2.817 per metrik ton.
Meski begitu, menurut Deddy, tidak semua komoditas energi akan terus mengekor minyak. Ia menilai hanya harga gas alam yang berpotensi terus melemah sepanjang semester satu tahun ini, mengikuti pelemahan harga minyak. Alasannya musim dingin yang sudah berakhir akan membuat permintaan gas alam global semakin sulit.
Untuk batubara, Deddy melihat tingginya permintaan dari negara-negara Asia Pasifik, seperti Jepang, Korea Selatan dan Filipina, masih berpeluang mengangkat harga.
Harga CPO juga masih bisa naik. Permintaan CPO biasanya naik jelang bulan Ramadan, karena negara-negara timur tengah meningkatkan stok minyak sawitnya. Konsumsi minyak sawit juga akan mengalami peningkatan. “Penguatan kali ini juga ditopang dari potensi penurunan produksi minyak sawit Malaysia sekitar 1,4% di bulan
Februari," kata Deddy.
Sementara Nizar Hilmy, analis SoeGee Futures, menilai, penurunan harga minyak kali ini belum mengubah tren jangka panjang. Menurut. dia, tren jangka panjang minyak masih positif. Maka ia tidak melihat dampaknya pada pergerakan harga komoditas energi lainnya, seperti gas alam, batubara atau CPO.
Menurutnya, dampak akan terasa jika tren sudah berubah jadi bearish jangka panjang. Contoh ketika harga minyak sempat menyentuh US$ 26 per barel di 2016.
Tren jangka pendek
Nizar menuturkan, beban kenaikan pasokan AS masih terus membayangi pergerakan harga minyak. Pekan lalu, American Petroleum Institute mencatatkan stok minyak mentah mingguan AS naik 4,53 juta barel. Rabu pagi
waktu AS, Energy Information Administration akan mengumumkan posisi stok minyak AS terbaru.
Prediksinya, cadangan minyak AS naik sebesar 1,9 juta barel, menutup penurunan pasokan sebesar 200.000 barel pekan sebelumnya. Bahkan survei Bloomberg memperkirakan, stok minyak mentah AS minggu lalu bisa naik 3 juta barel jadi 531,2 juta barel.
Sejak awal 2017, stok minyak AS sudah naik sekitar 49 juta barel. "Ini buruk bagi pasar karena artinya pemangkasan produksi yang dilakukan OPEC tidak mampu membuat pasokan di pasar global berkurang," tutur Nizar.
Tidak cuma itu, dua pelabuhan pengiriman terbesar di Libia, yakni Es Sider dan Ras Lanuf, siap kembali beroperasi setelah dua pekan terhenti akibat serangan militer. Ini akan menambah pasokan minya ke pasar. Produksi minyak
Libia di Februari 2017 dilaporkan naik jadi 646.000 barel, dibanding bulan sebelumnya 621.000 barel per hari.
Menurut Deddy, investor masih khawatir pasokan minyak mentah global akan kembali meningkat. “Kalau AS menargetkan penambahan produksi akhir tahun 2017 menjadi 9 juta barel, sementara pemangkasan OPEC cuma sampai pertengahan tahun, pasokan minyak jelas bertambah,”.
Hari ini (23/3) Nizar memprediksi harga minyak WTI berpotensi rebound teknikal dan bergerak antara US$ 46,8-US$ 48 per barel. Sepekan ke depan harga akan bergerak antara US$ 46,5-Us$ 49 per barel. Menurut analisa Deddy, harga minyak hari ini melemah dan bergerak antara US$ 46,71-US$ 48,41 per barel. Sepekan ke depan harga bergerak antara US$ 46,39-US$ 48 per barel.
Kontan, Page-7, Thursday, March, 23, 2017
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