Potential increase in fuel prices should be anticipated
Trends in Indonesia increased petroleum prices since the announcement of OPEC member oil production cuts late last year. The government needs to anticipate the impact of the oil price increase on the price of fuel oil in the country.
In the announcement of Indonesian Oil Price Team at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) in February 2017 rose 0.62 US dollars per barrel compared to January 2017. Thus, compared with the fourth quarter of 2016, the trend of increased ICP, especially if it is associated with the policy of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries, or OPEC cut oil production members.
The increase in ICP is in line with the increase in oil prices is also used as a benchmark, namely Brent rose from 55.45 dollars per barrel to 56 dollars per barrel and WTI rose from 52.61 dollars per barrel to 53.46 dollars per barrel , OPEC reference price also rose from 52.4 dollars per barrel to 53.37 dollars per barrel.
Lecturer Trisakti University, Jakarta, Pri Agung Rakhmanto, argues, increases in ICP and other highly influenced benchmark measures the countries that are members of OPEC. If the production reduction policy is not actually applied and an oversupply of production of oil shale (shale oil) from the United States, oil prices could potentially weaken.
"ICP upward trend will not necessarily continue in three months or six months. More likely is the fluctuation of oil prices in the range of 50 dollars to 55 dollars per barrel, "said Pri Agung, Wednesday (8/3), in Jakarta.
Special Unit of Upstream Oil and Gas (SKK Migas) noted, the average ICP in 2016 by 39; 15 dollars per barrel. This figure is lower than the 2016 state budget benchmark of 40 dollars per barrel. This year, ICP pegged to 45 dollars per barrel, while oil production targets ready for sale or lifting amounted to 815 000 barrels per day. The government is optimistic that the realization of the lifting in 2017 reached 825,000 barrels per day.
Production Dropped
In the explanation of Oil Price Team Indonesia Ministry of Energy, global oil production period January 2017 fell 1.29 million barrels per day to 95.82 million barrels per day. Contributions decreased production of OPEC members reached 890,000 barrels per day.
Policy of cuts in production came from oil prices plunged below 30 dollars per barrel at the beginning of 2016. For the Asia Pacific region, rising oil prices influenced by demand from India rose 197,000 barrels per day to 4.7 million barrels per day in December 2016. in addition, stocks in China was reduced 400,000 barrels to 362.8 million barrels in December 2016.
"Fundamentally, policy member OPEC production cuts have not been able to prevent oversupply in the market. However, psychologically, the policy impacts to the market, "he said.
Pri Agung added, it should be anticipated by the government with regard to the rising trend in global oil prices is the potential increase in the price of fuel oil (BBM) in the country. If you have to raise fuel prices in line with rising oil prices, the government must balance the state budget and taking into account the accuracy preparing financial impact on PT Pertamina as suppliers and sellers of fuel in Indonesia. "Raising the price of fuel is one option that should be calculated following all the risks," said Pri Agung
On many occasions, Minister Ignatius Jonan ensure, fuel price of subsidized premium and diesel fuel will not go up until the end of March. Currently the premium price of Rp 6,450 per liter and the price of subsidized diesel to Rp 5,150 per liter. The Government will review the price of subsidized gasoline and diesel fuel in March 2017 to determine the price as of 1 April. Government evaluate fuel prices every three months.
Meanwhile, Pertamina raised the price of fuel types pertamax, pertalite, and dexlite as the impact of rising world oil prices. Since the beginning of January 2012 the three types of fuel prices rose Rp 300 per liter. The price increase applies in all regions in Indonesia.
"We abide by the price set by the government for the fuel type of assignment (premium) and subsidized fuel (diesel). However, the movement of world oil prices will continue to be monitored, "said Vice President Corporate Communications Pertamina Wianda Pusponegoro.
IN INDONESIAN
Tren Harga Minyak Meningkat
Vice President Corporate Communication
Pertamina Wianda Pusponegoro
Tren harga minyak bumi Indonesia meningkat sejak pengumuman pemangkasan produksi minyak anggota OPEC akhir tahun lalu. Pemerintah perlu mengantisipasi dampak kenaikan harga minyak itu terhadap harga jual bahan bakar minyak dalam negeri.
Dalam pengumuman Tim Harga Minyak Indonesia pada Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM), harga minyak Indonesia (ICP) Februari 2017 naik 0,62 dollar AS per barrel dibandingkan Januari 2017. Maka, dibandingkan dengan triwulan IV-2016, tren ICP meningkat, terutama jika dikaitkan dengan kebijakan Organisasi Negara-negara Pengekspor Minyak atau OPEC memangkas produksi minyak anggotanya.
Kenaikan ICP tersebut seiring dengan kenaikan harga minyak dunia yang juga dijadikan patokan, yakni Brent naik dari 55,45 dollar AS per barrel menjadi 56 dollar AS per barrel dan WTI naik dari 52,61 dollar AS per barrel menjadi 53,46 dollar AS per barrel. Harga patokan OPEC juga naik dari 52,4 dollar AS per barrel menjadi 53,37 dollar AS per barrel.
Pengajar Universitas Trisakti, Jakarta, Pri Agung Rakhmanto, berpendapat, kenaikan ICP dan patokan lain sangat dipengaruhi langkah negara-negara yang tergabung dalam OPEC. Jika kebijakan pengurangan produksi tidak benar-benar diterapkan dan terjadi kelebihan pasokan dari produksi minyak serpih (shale oil) dari Amerika Serikat, harga minyak berpotensi kembali melemah.
”Tren kenaikan ICP ini belum tentu berlanjut dalam tiga bulan atau enam bulan ke depan. Yang lebih memungkinkan adalah terjadi fluktuasi harga minyak di kisaran 50 dollar AS sampai 55 dollar AS per barrel,” ujar Pri Agung, Rabu (8/3), di Jakarta.
Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Minyak dan Gas Bumi (SKK Migas) mencatat, rata-rata ICP tahun 2016 sebesar 39;15 dollar AS per barrel. Angka ini lebih rendah dari patokan APBN 2016 yang sebesar 40 dollar AS per barrel. Tahun ini, ICP dipatok 45 dollar AS per barrel, sementara target produksi minyak siap jual atau lifting sebesar 815.000 barrel per hari. Pemerintah optimistis realisasi lifting 2017 mencapai 825.000 barrel per hari.
Produksi turun
Dalam penjelasan Tim Harga Minyak Indonesia Kementerian ESDM, produksi minyak dunia periode Januari 2017 turun 1,29 juta barrel per hari menjadi 95,82 juta barrel per hari. Kontribusi penurunan produksi anggota OPEC mencapai 890.000 barrel per hari.
Kebijakan pemangkasan produksi berawal dari harga minyak yang anjlok hingga berada di bawah 30 dollar AS per barrel pada awal 2016. Untuk kawasan Asia Pasifik, kenaikan harga minyak dipengaruhi permintaan dari India yang naik 197.000 barrel per hari menjadi 4,7 juta barrel per hari pada Desember 2016. Selain itu, stok di China berkurang 400.000 barrel menjadi 362,8 juta barrel pada Desember 2016.
”Secara fundamental, kebijakan pemangkasan produksi anggota OPEC belum mampu mencegah kelebihan pasokan di pasar. Namun, secara psikologis, kebijakan tersebut berdampak ke pasar,” katanya.
Pri Agung menambahkan, hal yang harus diantisipasi pemerintah berkaitan dengan tren kenaikan harga minyak dunia adalah potensi kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) di dalam negeri. Jika harus menaikkan harga BBM seiring kenaikan harga minyak, pemerintah harus mengimbangi dengan ketelitian menyusun APBN dan memperhitungkan dampaknya terhadap keuangan PT Pertamina selaku pemasok dan penjual BBM di Indonesia. ”Menaikkan harga BBM termasuk salah satu opsi yang patut dihitung berikut segala resikonya,” ujar Pri Agung
Dalam berbagai kesempatan, Menteri ESDM Ignasius Jonan memastikan, harga BBM jenis premium dan solar bersubsidi tidak akan naik hingga akhir Maret. Saat ini harga premium Rp 6.450 per liter dan harga solar bersubsidi Rp 5.150 per liter. Pemerintah akan mengkaji ulang harga premium dan solar bersubsidi pada Maret 2017 untuk menentukan harga per 1 April. Pemerintah mengevaluasi harga BBM setiap tiga bulan.
Sementara itu, Pertamina menaikkan harga BBM jenis pertamax, pertalite, dan dexlite sebagai dampak kenaikan harga minyak dunia. Sejak awal Januari 2012 harga BBM ketiga jenis tersebut naik Rp 300 per liter. Kenaikan harga itu berlaku di seluruh daerah di Indonesia.
”Kami patuh pada harga yang ditentukan pemerintah untuk BBM jenis penugasan (premium) maupun BBM bersubsidi (solar). Namun, pergerakan harga minyak dunia akan terus dipantau,” ujar Vice President Corporate Communication Pertamina Wianda Pusponegoro.
Kompas, Page-18, Thursday, March, 9, 2017
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