However, price increases threatened Saudi production increase
Energy Information Administration (EIA) United States (US) made a surprise announcement on Wednesday (15/3) and the US Time. Data and research institutes in the US energy sector announced oil stocks. The US in the week ending on March 10 slipped 200,000 barrels.
This makes re-warmed world oil prices. Understandably, this is the first decline in 10 weeks. "In addition the US dollar even weaker after the Fed raised interest rates," said Putu Agus Pransuamitra, analyst at Monex Investindo Futures, Thursday (16/3).
As you know, yesterday the US dollar index eroded 0.01% at 100.73 on Thursday (16/3) at 517.13 pm, the price of WTI oil contracts April 2017 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.06% to US $ 49.38 per barrel. As a result, after being depressed, oil prices ended last week up 0.20%.
EIA also noted that gasoline stocks in Uncle Sam also fell by 3.06 million barrels to 246.3 million barrels, the lowest level since January 2017. "This means that gasoline demand increased and this makes the price of WTI oil will go up," the analysts added SoeGee Futures Nizar Hilmy.
If it could surpass US $ 50 per barrel, Nizar predict the short-term trend will be bullish WTI oil. The position is the strongest resistance level today.
Reduced production
Factors global oil production is still a major catalyst in the WTI oil price. After US oil stockpiles reduced, market participants expect oil production cut OPEC members and Russia continues. In January 2017, OPEC has managed to cut its production by up to 90% of the target set. However, it has not been able to restore oil prices to US $ 55 per barrel. Putu counting, if the US oil reserves continue to fall until the end of the first quarter, new price moves to $ 52 per barrel.
In addition to fear of US production, some oil-producing countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, reportedly intends to raise its production back. Even the production of Saudi Arabia in February has reached over 10 million barrels per day.
An increase in production could be a negative sentiment. "Moreover, both the country's largest oil producer," said Putu. Technically, Putu see WTI oil price is still moving below the moving average (MA) 50 and MA 100, but it is above the MA line 200. Then indicators relative strength index ( RSI) still rose to the level 37 and the stochastic moves up in level 44. The moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD) is still in the negative area 1.1.
Therefore, Putu estimate today oil prices still rose to the range of movement US $ 48.75-US $ 50.30 per barrel. Nizar predicts oil prices are still up in the next week and move in the range of US $ 50-US $ 53 per barrel.
IN INDONESIAN
Cadangan minyak AS Turun, Harga Minyak Kembali Naik
Tapi, kenaikan harga terancam naiknya produksi Arab
Energy Information Administration (EIA) Amerika Serikat (AS) membuat pengumuman mengejutkan, Rabu (15/3) lalu Waktu AS. Lembaga riset dan data bidang energi di AS ini mengumumkan stok minyak. AS di pekan yang berakhir pada 10 Maret merosot 200.000 barel.
Hal ini membuat harga minyak dunia kembali menghangat. Maklum, ini merupakan penurunan pertama dalam 10 pekan. “Kemudian ditambah lagi dollar AS malah melemah setelah The Fed menaikkan suku bunga,” kata Putu Agus Pransuamitra, Analis Monex Investindo Futures, kamis (16/3).
Seperti diketahui, kemarin indeks dollar AS terkikis 0,01% ke level 100,73 Kamis (16/3) pukul 517.13 WIB, harga minyak WTI kontrak pengiriman April 2017 di New York Mercantile Exchange naik 1,06% menjadi US$ 49,38 per barel. Alhasil, setelah sempat tertekan, sepekan terakhir harga minyak akhirnya naik 0,20%.
EIA juga mencatat, stok bensin di Negeri Paman Sam juga terkoreksi 3,06 juta barel menjadi 246,3 juta barel, atau level terendahnya sejak Januari 2017. "Artinya permintaan bensin meningkat dan ini membuat harga minyak WTI akan ikut terdongkrak," tambah analis SoeGee Futures Nizar Hilmy.
Jika bisa menembus US$ 50 per barel, Nizar memprediksi tren jangka pendek minyak WTI akan bullish. Posisi tersebut merupakan level resistence terkuat saat ini.
Mengurangi produksi
Faktor produksi minyak global masih jadi katalis utama pada harga minyak WTI. Setelah stok minyak di AS berkurang, pelaku pasar berharap pemangkasan produksi minyak anggota OPEC dan Rusia terus berlangsung.
Pada Januari 2017, OPEC telah berhasil memotong produksinya hingga 90% dari target yang dipatok. Namun, hal tersebut belum mampu mengembalikan harga minyak ke US$ 55 per barel. Putu menghitung, jika cadangan minyak AS terus turun hingga akhir kuartal I, harga baru bergerak ke US$ 52 per barel.
Selain ketakutan akan produksi AS, beberapa negara penghasil minyak, seperti Arab Saudi dan Irak, dikabarkan berniat kembali menaikkan produksinya. Bahkan produksi Arab Saudi di bulan Februari sudah mencapai di atas 10 juta barel per hari.
Adanya peningkatan produksi ini bisa jadi sentimen negatif. "Apalagi keduanya merupakan negara penghasil minyak terbesar,” ujar Putu. Secara teknikal, Putu melihat harga minyak WTI masih bergerak di bawah garis moving average (MA) 50 dan MA 100, tetapi sudah berada diatas garis MA 200.
Kemudian indikator relative strength indeks (RSI) masih menguat ke level 37 dan stochastic bergerak naik di level 44. Sedangkan indikator moving average convergence divergence (MACD) masih berada di area negatif 1,1.
Karena itu, Putu memperkirakan hari ini harga minyak masih menguat dengan rentang pergerakan US$ 48,75-US$ 50,30 per barel. Nizar memprediksi harga minyak masih naik dalam sepekan depan dan bergerak di kisaran US$ 50 -US$ 53 per barel.
Kontan, Page-7, Friday, March, 17, 2017
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