Gold & Oil warms

Effects of US attack on Syria

The rising price of gold and crude oil as a result of US missile strikes against Syria are not expected to last long, unless the geopolitical problems there heats up.

Ibrahim, Director of PT Garuda Futures, said that the US attack on Syria triggered buying and against gold and crude oil. As a result, the price of the two commodities to rise above 1%. On Thursday (6/4) night local time, the US launched 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles targeted the Syrian air base. 

    Uncle Sam steps in the initiation by President Donald Trump was aimed at providing a deterrent effect, since the Syrian government launched a chemical weapon that killed 80 victims.

"The price of gold and crude oil rose for a US attack not only involves two parties, but also Russia and Iran as an ally of Syria. The jump in prices occurred due to geopolitical factors, "he said.

In trading on Friday (7/4) at 17:43 GMT, spot gold price rose 12.66 points or 1.01% to the US $ 1,264 per troy ounce (USD 542,158.41 per gram). The price was the highest level since Nov. 9, 2016 or while Trump declared elected as President of the United States.

WTI oil price contract in May 2017 at 17:34 pm heat up 0.68% or 1.32% to the US $ 52.38 per barrel. The price of Brent crude oil contracts in June 2017 increased by 0.61 points or 1.11% to US $ 55.5 per barrel. Strengthening commodity prices, ignoring the rise of the US dollar which is usually inversely proportional. At 17:45 GMT, the dollar index rose 0,13% to 100.8.

According to him, Syria's own influence on the oil market was not too big. Because, even in the Middle East, the country was not included in the OPEC member. However, the geopolitical tensions involving heavy grade oil producers, such as the US, Russia, and Iran. In fact, the problem could spread to other countries in the Middle East.

Putu Agus Pransuamitra, Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures, said the US missile strikes into Syria sparked buying of investors to haven assets. Typically, the geopolitical risk is increasing the demand for gold, so that makes the price of shine. 

    Market participants were also anticipating the impact of supply constraints for crude oil from the Middle East countries due to the problem in Syria. They also take action to buy on oil even though fundamental factors have not been too positive.

"The market will still see the continuation of the geopolitical risk if the situation worsens, there is the possibility of oil and gold prices to increase," he said. In the next week, Putu predict gold prices move in the range of US $ 1,240-US $ l.285 per troy ounce. The WTI oil price is expected to oncoming limited in the range of US $ 50.7 to US $ 53,8 per barrel.

KNIFE TWO EYED

Economist of PT Bank Permata Tbk. Josua Pardede said global oil prices simmering like a double-edged knife. On the one hand, state revenues will increase but also could trigger excessive inflation. Josua estimation, any increase in oil prices of US $ 1 per barrel, increased state revenue of Rp 700 billion. 

     The number is allocated to the oil and gas income tax and non-tax revenue. There is a possibility of oil price in the revised state budget, "he said on Friday [7/4). In Budget 2017, the government set the price of oil per barrel of US $ 45. Currently the price is stable above US $ 50 per barrel.

IN INDONESIAN

Efek serangan AS ke Suriah

Emas & Minyak Menghangat

Meningkatnya harga emas dan minyak mentah sebagai dampak dari serangan misil AS terhadap Suriah diperkirakan tidak akan bertahan lama, kecuali kalau masalah geopolitik di sana kian memanas.

     Ibrahim, Direktur Utama PT Garuda Berjangka, mengatakan bahwa serangan AS terhadap Suriah memicu investor melakukan aksi beli terhadap emas dan minyak mentah. Alhasil, harga dua komoditas tersebut meningkat di atas 1%. 

    Pada Kamis (6/4) malam waktu setempat, AS meluncurkan 59 rudal penjelajah Tomahawk dengan target pangkalan udara Suriah. Langkah Paman Sam yang di inisiasi oleh Presiden Donald Trump itu bertujuan memberikan efek jera, karena pemerintah Suriah meluncurkan senjata kimia yang menewaskan 80 korban.

“Harga emas dan minyak mentah meningkat karena serangan AS tidak hanya melibatkan dua pihak, tetapi juga Rusia dan Iran sebagai sekutu Suriah. Lonjakan harga terjadi karena faktor geopolitik,” katanya.

Pada perdagangan Jumat (7/4) pukul 17:43 WIB, harga emas spot meningkat 12,66 poin atau 1,01 % menuju US$1.264 per troy ounce (Rp 542.158,41 per gram). Harga tersebut merupakan level tertinggi sejak 9 November 2016, atau saat Trump dinyatakan terpilih sebagai Presiden AS.

Harga minyak WTI kontrak Mei 2017 pada pukul 17:34 WIB memanas 0,68% atau 1,32% menuju US$52,38 per barel. Adapun harga minyak Brent kontrak Juni 2017 meningkat 0,61 poin atau 1,11% menjadi US$ 55,5 per barel. Penguatan harga komoditas itu, mengabaikan kenaikan mata uang dolar AS yang biasanya berbanding terbalik. Pada pukul 17:45 WIB, indeks dolar menguat 0,13% menjadi 100,8.

Menurut dia, pengaruh Suriah sendiri terhadap pasar minyak sebenarnya tidak terlalu besar. Pasalnya, meskipun berada di Timur Tengah, negara itu tidak masuk dalam anggota OPEC. Namun, ketegangan geopolitik itu melibatkan produsen minyak kelas berat, seperti AS, Rusia, dan Iran. Bahkan, masalah bisa merembet ke negara lain di Timur Tengah.

Putu Agus Pransuamitra, Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures, mengatakan serangan rudal AS ke Suriah memicu aksi beli investor terhadap aset haven. Biasanya, risiko geopolitik memang meningkatkan permintaan emas, sehingga menjadikan harga bersinar. 

    Pelaku pasar juga mengantisipasi dampak hambatan pasokan minyak mentah dari negara-negara Timur Tengah akibat masalah di Suriah. Mereka pun melakukan aksi beli terhadap minyak meskipun faktor fundamental belum terlalu positif.

“Pasar masih akan melihat kelanjutan risiko geopolitik jika keadaan memburuk, ada kemungkinan harga minyak dan emas kembali meningkat,” ujarnya. Pada pekan depan, Putu memprediksi harga emas bergerak dalam rentang US$1.240-US$l.285 per troy ounce. Adapun harga minyak WTI diperkirakan melaju terbatas di kisaran US$50,7-US$53,8 per barel.

PISAU BERMATA DUA

Ekonom PT Bank Permata Tbk. Josua Pardede mengatakan memanasnya harga minyak global bagaikan pisau bermata dua. Di satu sisi, penerimaan negara akan meningkat tetapi juga bisa memicu inflasi yang berlebihan. Estimasi Josua, setiap kenaikan harga minyak US$ 1 per barel, penerimaan negara bertambah Rp 700 miliar. 

    Angka tersebut dialokasikan ke dalam Pajak Penghasilan minyak dan gas serta penerimaan negara bukan pajak. Ada kemungkinan harga minyak di APBN direvisi,” katanya, Jumat [7/4).  Dalam APBN 2017, pemerintah menetapkan harga minyak US$ 45 per barel. Saat ini harga stabil di atas US$ 50 per barel. 

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-1, Saturday, April, 8, 2017