Speculators action Paint Rally

World crude oil prices were on trend rally, as the rampant speculative attack US mission to Syria. The price increase was also boosted by the cessation of production of the largest oil fields in Libya, as well as OPEC oil contract extension.

In trading on Monday (10/4) at 3:23 pm, the price of WTI oil contract in May 2017 is at US $ 52.66 per barrel rose 0.8% or 0.42 points. This is an increase since trading successive said on Tuesday (21/3). In the past month, prices have grown by 7.6%. Pipeline carrying crude oil ari Sharara, Libya, Zawiya refinery to halt operations on Sunday (9/4). This creates an immediate disruption to the export destination.

As is known, Libya has the largest crude oil reserves in Africa. Sharara, precisely in western Libya, every day to pump 200,000 barrels of oil per day, before the advent of disruption in Libyan oil pipeline. The National Oil Corp (NOC) North African production has just returned to the normal level of about 700,000 barrels per day. Oil producers stopped operating. Meanwhile, the US missile strikes into Syrian air base last week has pushed oil prices rose to above $ 52 per barrel.

Andy Wibowo Gunawan analyst at Mirae Asset Securities Indonesia, said that if given the track record of the history, the US attack on Syria is quite alarming and potentially develop into a war as happened in Iraq in 2003. According to him, the geopolitical conditions that sentiment booster crude oil prices. "The US attack soaring world oil prices," he said, Monday (10/4).

According to traders, as quoted by Reuters, oil prices were supported by strong demand and global political uncertainty following the attack by the US against the Syrian capital last weekend. Strong demand for oil and backgrounds filled with anxiety global conditions provide the balance of the Syrian air base, where suspected launch deadly chemical weapons last week. "The US cruise missile attack has led to a surge in crude oil prices," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda.

Syria is not a major crude oil production of the world. The country also has limited oil production. However, its location in the Middle East and its alliances with a number of top oil producers raised fears of widespread conflict could disrupt crude shipments. However, the continued increase in increase for 12 consecutive weeks into 672 rig, which was the highest level since August 2015. According to Goldman Sachs, the rig release of data showing that US oil production (year on year / yoy) to increase by 215,000 barrels per day in 2017.

Firmness GEOPOLITICS

Ibrahim, Director of PT Garuda Futures, said Syria's own influence on the oil market was not too big. Because even in the Middle East, the country was not included in the OPEC member. However, the factor of geopolitical tensions involving oil producers. Actually, geopolitical factors can not be a major foothold as rising commodity prices, as the US dollar continues to strengthen.

Therefore, future commodity prices will go back to the fundamentals of each. "If the speculation continues hoist factor in oil prices, then the US dollar also increased. So when oil prices plummeted major producing countries could experience a crisis. Because the US dollar has been strong due to positive fundamentals, while the oil does not have a solid foundation, "he said. He added that the US attack on the Syrian issue will not take place Iama. The reason, every country involved either directly or indirectly wants global political conditions are more stable.

IN INDONESIAN

Aksi Spekulan Warnai Reli

    Harga minyak mentah dunia sedang dalam tren reli, seiring maraknya aksi spekulatif dari serangan misi Amerika Serikat ke Suriah. Kenaikan harga juga didongkrak oleh terhentinya produksi ladang minyak terbesar di Libya, serta perpanjangan kontrak minyak OPEC.

Pada perdagangan Senin (10/4) pukul 3:23 WIB, harga minyak WTI kontrak Mei 2017 berada di posisi US$52,66 per barel naik 0,8% atau 0,42 poin. Ini merupakan kenaikan berturut-tutur sejak perdagangan selasa (21 /3). Dalam sebulan terakhir, harga telah tumbuh hingga 7,6%. Pipa yang membawa minyak mentah ari Sharara, Libya, ke kilang Zawiya berhenti beroperasi pada Minggu (9/4). Kondisi ini menciptakan gangguan kepada segara tujuan ekspor.

  Seperti diketahui, libya memiliki cadangan minyak mentah terbesar di Afrika. Sharara, tepatnya di Libya barat, setiap hari memompa 200.000 barel minyak per hari, sebelum munculnya gangguan pada pipa minyak Libya. The National oil Corp (NOC) produksi Afrika Utara baru saja kembali ke tingkat normal sekitar 700.000 barel per hari. Produsen minyak berhenti beroperasi. Adapun, serangan rudal AS ke pangkalan udara Suriah pada pekan lalu telah mendorong harga minyak naik ke atas US$52 per barel. 

Andy Wibowo Gunawan analis Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, mengatakan bila mengingat rekam jejak sejarah, serangan AS kepada Suriah cukup memprihatinkan dan berpotensi berkembang menjadi perang seperti yang terjadi di Irak pada 2003. Menurut dia, kondisi geopolitik itu menjadi sentimen pendongkrak harga minyak mentah. “Serangan AS membuat harga minyak dunia melonjak,” ungkapnya, Senin (10/4). 

Menurut para trader, seperti dikutip Reuters, harga minyak didukung oleh permintaan yang kuat serta ketidakpastian politik global menyusul serangan modal oleh AS terhadap Suriah pada akhir pekan lalu. Kuatnya permintaan atas minyak serta latar belakang kondisi global yang dipenuhi kegelisahan memberikan keseimbangan pangkalan udara Suriah, tempat yang diduga diluncurkannya senjata kimia mematikan pada pekan lalu. “Serangan rudal jelajah AS telah menyebabkan lonjakan pada harga minyak mentah,” ujar Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst OANDA. 

Suriah memang bukan produksi utama minyak mentah dunia. Negara ini pun telah membatasi produksi minyaknya. Namun, lokasinya yang terletak di Timur Tengah beserta aliansinya dengan sejumlah produsen teratas minyak menimbulkan kekhawatiran tentang meluasnya konflik yang dapat mengganggu pengiriman minyak mentah. 

    Meski demikian, lanjutan peningkatan bertambah selama 12 pekan berturut-turut menjadi 672 rig, yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak Agustus 2015. Menurut Goldman Sachs, rilis data rig menunjukkan bahwa produksi minyak AS (year on year/yoy) dapat bertambah sebesar 215.000 barel per hari pada 2017.

KETEGASAN GEOPOLITIK

Ibrahim, Direktur Utama PT Garuda Berjangka, mengungkapkan pengaruh Suriah sendiri terhadap pasar minyak sebenarnya tidak terlalu besar. Pasalnya meskipun berada di Timur Tengah, negara itu tidak masuk dalam anggota OPEC. Namun, faktor ketegangan geopolitik melibatkan  produsen minyak. Sebetulnya faktor geopolitik tidak bisa dijadikan pijakan utama sebagai kenaikan harga komoditas, karena dolar AS juga terus menguat. 

Oleh karena itu, nantinya harga komoditas akan kembali kepada fundamental masing-masing. “Jika faktor spekulasi terus mengerek harga minyak, kemudian dolar AS juga meningkat. Maka ketika harga minyak anjlok negara produsen utama bisa mengalami krisis. 

     Karena dolar AS sudah kuat karena fundamental positif, sedangkan minyak tidak punya dasar yang kuat,” paparnya. Dia menambahkan, masalah serangan AS terhadap Suriah tidak akan berlangsung Iama. Pasalnya, setiap negara yang terlibat baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung menginginkan kondisi politik global yang lebih stabil. 

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Tuesday, April, 11, 2017