Crude oil prices even stronger among the concerns of geopolitical conflict that swept the Middle East. Black gold price rising trend of increasingly uncontrollable as OPEC efforts to limit the production of citing Bloomberg. Monday (10/4) at 16:40 pm. WTI oil price delivery contract in May 2016 in New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.78% to US $ 52.65 per barrel compared to the previous day.
Within a week, oil prices rose 4.8%. PT SoeGee Futures analyst, Nizar Hilmy said the oil price increase is supported by market concerns about geopolitical conditions in the Middle East. This followed a missile attack the United States (US) against the Syrian military base.
US military bases storm after allegations Syria Bashar al-Assad's government to attack civilians with poisonous gas. "Market participants are surprised by the action of the US intervention in Syria, given President Donald Trump had said it would not interfere in the Middle East conflict," said Nizar. Market participants worry escalated after the US attack, both the scope and the levels of violence, which could lead to a world war. "The conflict in the Middle East will disrupt oil distribution so as to support higher prices," said Nizar.
However, this price hike of oil can be retained following the addition of US drilling activity. Baker Hughes Inc. data show Uncle Sam drilling rigs increased in the 12 last week to its highest level since August 2015 to 672 rigs. Goldmand Sachs estimates that US oil production this year will increase to 9 million barrels per day.
The increase in US production could disrupt the plan to limit production of oil producing countries who are members of OPEC. Some OPEC members favor the extension of restrictions on production until the second half of 2017. The official verdict will be announced in late May.
US exports
Deddy Yusuf Siregar, PT Asia Tradepoint Futures analyst, said OPEC plans that helped lift oil prices. Another driving force: the prediction of the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie on US oil exports this year will reach 1 million barrels per day, or higher than before only 798 000 barrels per day. "If the US production offset by export growth, then the price will be maintained at above US $ 50," said Deddy.
According to Deddy, the US has an interest to be a stable oil price. Therefore, the economical price for US oil production in the range of US $ 40 per barrel. He also predicted that oil prices will move in the range of US $ 50 - US $ 55 until the end of the year. And, Deddy stated US weekly oil reserve release of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be one of the drivers of this week's price.
Nizar added, market participants will listen to release its April monthly production data. On the other hand, the signal oil demand from China will be visible from the country's economic data releases of the Great Wall. "The condition of geopolitics in the Middle East also still support the strengthening of the price if it does not show signs of let up," said Nizar.
Tuesday (11/4), Deddy projected that oil prices will rise in the range of US $ 51.6 to US $ 53.15 per barrel and US $ 51.2-US35 53,3 week. Average projection Nizar, oil on Tuesday (11/4) will move US $ 52-US $ 54 and US $ 51-US $ 55 a week.
IN INDONESIAN
Serangan AS Menyulut Harga Minyak
Harga minyak mentah semakin kokoh di antara kekhawatiran konflik geopolitik yang melanda Timur Tengah. Tren kenaikan harga emas hitam semakin terkendali seiring upaya OPEC membatasi produksi mengutip Bloomberg. Senin (10/4) pukul 16.40 WIB. Harga minyak WTI kontrak pengiriman Mei 2016 di New York Mercantile Exchange menguat 0.78% ke level US$ 52,65 per barel dibanding sehari sebelumnya.
Dalam sepekan, harga minyak naik 4,8%. Analis PT SoeGee Futures, Nizar Hilmy mengatakan, kenaikan harga minyak didukung oleh kekhawatiran pasar terhadap kondisi geopolitik di Timur Tengah. Hal ini menyusul serangan rudal Amerika Serikat (AS) terhadap pangkalan militer Suriah.
AS menggempur pangkalan militer Suriah setelah ada dugaan Pemerintahan Bashar al-Assad menyerang warga sipil dengan gas beracun. "Pelaku pasar kaget dengan aksi intervensi AS di Suriah, mengingat Presiden Donald Trump sempat menyatakan tidak akan ikut campur pada konflik Timur Tengah," kata Nizar.
Pelaku pasar cemas terjadi eskalasi pasca serangan AS, baik lingkup maupun kadar kekerasan, yang bisa berujung ke perang dunia. "Konflik di Timur Tengah akan mengganggu distribusi minyak sehingga mendukung kenaikan harga," kata Nizar.
Tapi, penguatan harga ini minyak bisa tertahan menyusul penambahan aktivitas pengeboran AS. Data Baker Hughes inc menunjukkan rig pengeboran negeri Paman Sam bertambah dalam 12 pekan terakhir ke level tertinggi sejak Agustus 2015 menjadi 672 rig. Goldmand Sachs memperkirakan, produksi minyak AS tahun ini akan meningkat jadi 9 juta barel per hari.
Kenaikan produksi AS bisa mengganggu rencana pembatasan produksi dari negara produsen minyak yang tergabung dalam OPEC. Beberapa anggota OPEC mendukung perpanjangan pembatasan produksi hingga semester II 2017. Putusan resminya akan diumumkan akhir Mei.
Ekspor AS
Deddy Yusuf Siregar, Analis PT Asia Tradepoint Futures, bilang, rencana OPEC itu turut mengangkat harga minyak. Pendorong lain: prediksi biro konsultan Wood Mackenzie terhadap ekspor minyak AS tahun ini akan mencapai 1 juta barel per hari, atau lebih tinggi dari sebelumnya hanya 798.000 barel per hari. "Bila produksi AS diimbangi dengan pertumbuhan ekspor, maka harga masih akan bertahan di atas US$ 50" kata Deddy.
Menurut Deddy, AS memiliki kepentingan untuk menjadi harga minyak stabil. Sebab, harga ekonomis bagi produksi minyak AS di kisaran US$ 40 per barel. Ia pun memprediksikan harga minyak akan bergerak di kisaran US$50 - US$55 hingga akhir tahun. Dan, Deddy menyatakan rilis cadangan minyak mingguan AS dari Energy Information Administration (EIA) akan menjadi salah satu penggerak harga pekan ini.
Nizar menambahkan, pelaku pasar akan menyimak rilis data produksi bulanan OPEC. Di sisi lain, sinyal permintaan minyak terutama dari China akan terlihat dari rilis data ekonomi negeri tembok rakSasa. "Kondisi geopolitik di Timur Tengah juga masih mendukung penguatan harga jika belum menunjukkan tanda-tanda reda," ujar Nizar.
Hari selasa (11/4), Deddy memproyeksikan, harga minyak akan menguat di kisaran US$ 51,6-US$ 53,15 per barel dan di US$ 51,2-US35 53,3 dalam sepekan. Sedang proyeksi Nizar, minyak hari selasa (11/4) akan bergerak US$ 52-US$ 54 serta US$ 51-US$ 55 sepekan.
Kontan, Page-4, Tuesday, April, 11, 2017
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