The government will face challenges in attracting upstream oil and gas investment as there is competition among the black liquor producing countries to attract investors.
On the other hand, interest in oil and gas investment at the moment, when oil prices are still low, tends to dim. The contractors of cooperation contract (KKKS) Iebih focus on production activities and reduce the exploration or search for new sources of oil and gas reserves. This will cause the oil and gas reserves continue to decrease so threatening to the production going forward.
President of the Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA)
Christina Verchere
President of the Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Christina Verchere said the weakening of oil prices makes companies have to reorganize the business plan. According to him, all oil companies both global and national will look back at investment opportunities.
Oil and gas companies, adjusting to several indicators such as subsurface quality, adequacy of return on capital, and investment sustainability are considered as the upstream sector requires a long payback period.
Her explained, the challenges facing the company more difficult. Her mentioned, some companies release assets. Meanwhile, in terms of competition, he considered, Indonesia should show its ability to be superior to other countries so that it can be an investment destination.
"Indonesia must be able to compete regionally and globally to get funding," her said in a press conference on the Convention and Exhibition of IPA 2017, Wednesday (11/5).
On the same occasion, IPA Executive Director Marjolijn Wajong said that currently there is a decrease in upstream oil and gas investment which is a negative signal.
From data from SKK Migas, oil and gas investment in 2016 fell 27% to US $ 11.1 billion compared to the previous year of US $ 15.3 billion. In fact, oil and gas investment in 2016 is more for production activities and leaving a small portion for exploration.
The realization of investment for the search for new sources of oil and gas reserves (exploration) continues to shrink since 2012 only US $ 1.3 billion and then slightly increased to US $ 1.4 billion in 2013. Then, the realization of investment for exploration activities in 2014 US $ 1.1 billion, down To US $ 0.5 billion in 2015 and lower by 2016 to only US $ 0.1 billion.
RESERVE OF OIL AND GAS
The low investment in exploration activities will have an impact on future oil and gas reserves. In fact, he mentioned that the current condition of oil and gas in a crisis position because it has not been found the source of oil and gas reserves large enough for 15 years. On the other hand, the existing oil and gas reserves continue to fall because production activities continue to be done.
Oil reserves per 2016 is only 3.50 billion barrels or the lowest since 2012. In fact, oil reserves in 2012 reached 3.74 billion barrels. Then, oil and gas reserves in 2013 amounted to 3.69 billion barrels, which gradually decreased to 3.62 billion barrels in 2014 and to 3.60 billion barrels in 2015.
"So we are already in crisis, not in good condition. In fact, opportunities in oil and gas are still many, ".
Her said the upstream oil and gas sector is now contributing little to economic growth due to low oil prices. However, upstream oil and gas investment provides a large multiplier effect. The oil and gas sector has generated gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016 with US $ 23.7 billion of 3.3%.
From a Boston Consulting Group study related to the multiplier effect of upstream oil and gas investment in Indonesia, the accumulated direct impact of US $ 40 billion with accumulated impacts of up to US $ 80 billion. Meanwhile, an additional average of 1.2% economic growth per year can be achieved through the addition of 40,000 to 50,000 new jobs.
The estimate is based on assumptions of oil prices of US $ 50 per barrel from 2016 to 2025 and gas at US $ 15 per barrel of oil equivalent. Another assumption is that there is an additional production of 20% through advanced dredging activities or enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and an empty gas project of 25%.
This is achieved when oil and gas production in 2015 of 1.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day is maintained so that by 2025 the national oil and gas production is still at 1.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Earlier, Director of Upstream Oil and Gas Research of Southeast Asia WoodMackenzie Andrew Harwood said, Indonesia's oil and gas reserves will continue to decline in line with the lack of new sources of oil and gas. He predicts that Indonesia's oil reserves will be exhausted within 8 years and gas in the next 10 years.
The reason, he mentioned that the opportunity to repeat major findings such as the project Tangguh Train 3, Indonesian Deepwater Development (IDD), and Field Eternal Masela very small. On the other hand, the oil and gas reserves found are getting smaller.
From WoodMac data, the cost of finding a new source of oil and gas reserves per barrel of US $ 4 with an average yield size of 17.6 million barrels of oil equivalent.
And the 2017 Ernst & Young (EY) report, a country that relies on revenue and oil and gas sectors will be more difficult due to the impact of lower oil prices. Because the price of oil to make the government budget corrected.
In addition, governments in some countries are taking steps to reduce fuel and energy subsidies, reduce government salaries, maximize oil production volumes to consider partial privatization of national oil companies to adjust to lower oil prices.
Recorded, countries that are currently reducing the budget deficit, raise investment or attract new investments ranging from Africa, South America, Middle East as well as Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, the competing countries are attracting upstream oil and gas investment, namely Mexico, Brazil, Nigeria, Egypt, Tanzania, Angola, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia.
IN INDONESIAN
Saatnya Pemerintah Memoles Hulu Migas
Pemerintah akan menghadapi tantangan dalam menarik investasi Hulu minyak dan gas bumi karena ada persaingan antar negara penghasil cairan hitam itu untuk menarik investor.
Di sisi lain, minat investasi minyak dan gas bumi pada saat ini, ketika harga minyak masih rendah, cenderung redup. Para kontraktor kontrak kerja sama (KKKS) Iebih fokus melakukan kegiatan produksi dan mengurangi eksplorasi atau pencarian sumber cadangan migas yang baru. Hal itu akan menyebabkan cadangan migas terus berkurang sehingga mengancam ke berlangsung produksi ke depan.
Presiden Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA)
Christina Verchere
Presiden Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Christina Verchere mengatakan, pelemahan harga minyak membuat perusahaan harus menyusun ulang rencana bisnis. Menurutnya, seluruh perusahaan minyak baik global maupun nasional akan melihat kembali peluang-peluang investasi.
Perusahaan minyak dan gas bumi, menyesuaikannya dengan beberapa indikator seperti kualitas bawah permukaan, kecukupan pengembalian modal, dan jaminan keberlangsungan investasi menjadi pertimbangan karena sektor hulu membutuhkan masa pengembalian yang panjang.
Dia menjelaskan, tantangan yang dihadapi perusahaan semakin sulit. Dia menyebut, beberapa perusahaan melepas aset. Sementara itu, dalam hal kompetisi, dia menilai, Indonesia harus menunjukkan kemampuannya agar Iebih unggul dari negara lainnya sehingga bisa menjadi tujuan investasi.
"Indonesia harus bisa bersaing secara regional dan global untuk mendapatkan pendanaan,” ujarnya dalam jumpa pers tentang Konvensi dan Pameran IPA 2017, Rabu (11/5).
Dalam kesempatan yang sama, Direktur Eksekutif IPA Marjolijn Wajong mengatakan, saat ini terdapat penurunan investasi hulu migas yang menjadi sinyal negatif.
Dari data SKK Migas, investasi migas pada 2016 turun 27% menjadi US$11,1 miliar dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya US$15,3 miliar. Bahkan, investasi migas pada 2016 lebih banyak untuk kegiatan produksi dan menyisakan sebagian kecil untuk eksplorasi.
Realisasi investasi untuk kegiatan pencarian sumber cadangan migas baru (eksplorasi) terus menyusut sejak 2012 hanya US$1,3 miliar kemudian sedikit naik menjadi US$1,4 miliar pada 2013. Kemudian, realisasi investasi untuk kegiatan eksplorasi pada 2014 US$1,1 miliar, turun menjadi US$0,5 miliar pada 2015 dan semakin rendah pada 2016 hanya US$ 0,1 miliar.
CADANGAN MIGAS
Rendahnya investasi kegiatan eksplorasi akan berdampak pada cadangan migas ke depan. Bahkan, dia menyebut bahwa kondisi migas saat ini dalam posisi krisis karena belum lagi ditemukan sumber cadangan migas yang cukup besar selama 15 tahun. Di sisi lain, cadangan migas yang ada terus turun karena kegiatan produksi terus dilakukan.
Cadangan minyak per 2016 hanya 3,50 miliar barel atau terendah sejak 2012. Padahal, cadangan minyak pada 2012 mencapai 3,74 miliar barel. Kemudian, cadangan migas pada 2013 sebesar 3,69 miliar barel yang berangsur menurun menjadi 3,62 miliar barel pada 2014 dan menjadi 3,60 miliar barel pada 2015.
“Jadi kita ini sudah krisis, dalam kondisi tidak baik. Padahal, peluang di migas ini masih banyak,”.
Dia menuturkan, sektor hulu migas kini memberikan kontribusi yang kecil bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi sehubungan dengan rendahnya harga minyak. Namun, investasi hulu migas memberikan efek berganda yang besar, Sektor migas menyubang pendapatan domestik bruto (PDB) 2016 dengan capaian US$23,7 miliar 3,3%.
Dari kajian yang dilakukan Boston Consulting Group terkait efek berganda investasi sektor hulu migas di Indonesia, akumulasi dampak langsung sebesar US$ 40 miliar dengan akumulasi dampak ikutannya mencapai US$ 80 miliar. Adapun, rata-rata tambahan pertumbuhan ekonomi 1,2 % per tahun bisa dicapai melalui penambahan 40.000 hingga 50.000 pekerjaan baru.
Perkiraan tersebut dibuat berdasarkan asumsi harga minyak US$50 per barel dari 2016 hingga 2025 dan gas sebesar US$15 per barel setara minyak. Asumsi lainnya yakni terdapat tambahan produksi sebesar 20% melalui kegiatan pengurasan tingkat lanjut atau enhanced oil recovery (EOR) dan proyek gas kosong sebesar 25%.
Hal itu diperoleh bila produksi migas pada 2015 yakni 1,9 juta barel setara minyak per hari dijaga sehingga pada 2025 produksi migas nasional masih sebesar 1,6 juta barel setara minyak per hari. Sebelumnya, Direktur Riset Hulu Migas Asia Tenggara WoodMackenzie Andrew Harwood mengatakan, cadangan minyak dan gas Indonesia akan terus menurun seiring dengan tak bertambahnya sumber-sumber migas yang baru. Dia memprediksi, cadangan minyak Indonesia akan habis dalam kurun waktu 8 tahun dan gas pada 10 tahun ke depan.
Pasalnya, dia menyebutkan bahwa peluang untuk mengulang temuan besar seperti pada proyek Tangguh Train 3, Indonesian Deepwater Development (IDD), dan Lapangan Abadi, Masela sangat kecil. Di sisi lain, cadangan migas yang ditemukan semakin kecil.
Dari data WoodMac, biaya pencarian sumber cadangan migas baru per barel sebesar US$4 dengan ukuran temuan rata-rata sebesar 17,6 juta barel setara minyak.
Dan laporan Ernst &Young (EY) 2017, negara yang bergantung pada pendapatan dan sektor migas akan semakin sulit karena terdampak rendahnya harga minyak. Pasalnya, harga minyak membuat anggaran pemerintah terkoreksi.
Selain itu, pemerintah di beberapa negara mengambil langkah mengurangi subsidi bahan bakar minyak (BBM) dan energi, mengurangi gaji pegawai pemerintah, memaksimalkan volume produksi migas hingga mempertimbangkan privatisasi secara parsial pada perusahaan minyak nasional untuk bisa menyesuaikan rendahnya harga minyak.
Tercatat, negara-negara yang kini sedang mengurangi defisit anggaran, menaikkan investasi atau menarik investasi baru mulai dari Afrika, Amerika Selatan, Timur Tengah juga Asia Tenggara. Adapun, negara yang sedang berkompetisi menarik investasi hulu migas yakni Meksiko, Brasil, Nigeria, Mesir, Tanzania, Angola, Kuwait, Uni Emirat Arab, Iran, Oman, Rusia, Arab Saudi, dan Indonesia.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-30, Friday, May, 12, 2017
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