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Friday, May 26, 2017

Oil and Gas Industry Potentially Gives Additional Growth GDP of 1.2%



The national oil and gas industry is expected to boost the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.2% per year by 2025. In effect, national oil and gas production is maintained at 1.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day / boepd As in 2015.

Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Board Member Tumbur Parlindungan said the upstream oil and gas sector has multiple effects for national economic growth, ranging from the use of local products to banking transactions. Every investment in the oil and gas sector of US $ 1 million will create an added value of US $ 1.6 million, increase the gross domestic product of US $ 700 thousand, and create employment for 100 Indonesians.

From the Boston Consulting Group study, the upstream oil and gas sector has the potential to boost the growth of gross domestic product by 1.2% per year by 2025. If oil and gas production levels in 2015 are maintained until 2025, its impact on GDP growth of 1.2% per year , "He said at a press conference of The 41st IPA Convention and Exhibiton in Jakarta

That percentage is equivalent to the average growth of gross domestic product of US $ 120 billion per year by 2025. Not only that, the employment opportunities that can be created reach 40-50 thousand jobs.

According to The Boston Consulting Group's data, the calculation assumes an oil price of US $ 50 per barrel and gas of US $ 15 per barrel of oil equivalent during 2016 2025. While maintaining production to avoid free fall is assumed from additional production through advanced dewatering (enhanced oil Recovery / EOR) accounted for about 20% and idle gas projects roughly boosted 15%.

"So more investors are coming in and the economy is improving," said Marjolijn Wajong, executive director of IPA Marjolijn Wajong, adding that the national oil and gas investment continues to fall, with upstream oil and gas investment of only US $ 11 , 15 billion, down 27% from the previous year's realization of US $ 15.34 billion, meaning that national oil and gas exploration and production activities are also cut.

The immediate impact, oil and gas exploration and reserves continues to decrease. The number of exploration areas has narrowed from 228 in 2015 to 199 by 2016. Of these, 37 are in the process of termination. Oil reserves fell from 3.6 billion barrels in 2015 to 3.3 billion barrels in 2016.

For regions producing oil and gas, the decline in oil and gas production curbed economic growth. "With the decline in activity, the economic growth of the oil and gas region has also declined, for example the Rokan area in Riau, the economic growth is only 1% in 2015 from 4.1%," he said.At the same thing happened to other regions in 2014 to 2015, Such as Tanjung Jabung Timur in Jambi, Kutai Kertanegara in East Kalimantan, and Sorong in West Papua.

Marjolijn admitted that the national oil and gas industry is still in a difficult situation. The drop in oil prices forced oil and gas companies to recalculate their investment budgets. But opportunities in the sector for national oil and gas are actually still quite good.

"While the rest of the world there is a problem of falling oil prices, but the spirit to compete should be increased, so if the policy should be thought to be attractive compared to other countries or not,".

Seizure Capital

Chairman of Science IPA Christina Verchere explained, after the fall of crude oil prices, all oil and gas companies both local, national, and international companies face great challenges in managing their cash flow. Thus, efforts are made such as re-establishing the basic production costs and renegotiating the contracts they have.

The impact of this, investment capital in the world also declined. Indonesia should strive for some of this investment funds that enter the upstream sector of national oil and gas. "So it needs to be discussed how Indonesia remains attractive to seize world capital in upstream oil and gas sector," he asserted.

Indonesia's competition to get investment is said to be in the global arena. That is, Indonesia should not only see countries that are in one region, but all countries that have oil and gas reserves in the world. Migas Indonesia itself is considered quite complex, there is deep sea exploration that must be mitigated risk, on the other hand some areas have a low risk given the flow of production. "Indonesia has a very strong thing, a growing market that will definitely attract investment," Christina said.

However, Indonesia still has to compete to attract the existing capital in the world. When looking at a single country, oil and gas companies will usually see the subsurface condition of oil and gas, how much the return on capital can be obtained, and whether the country ensures the sustainability of the investment, considering the oil and gas project is usually long term.

IN INDONESIAN

Industri Migas Berpotensi Dorong Tambahan Pertumbuhan PDB 1,2 %


Industri minyak dan gas bumi nasional diperkirakan mampu mendorong tambahan pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (gross domestic product/ GDP) sebesar 1,2% per tahun hingga 2025. Syaratnya, produksi migas nasional dipertahankan pada kisaran 1,9 juta barrel oil equivalent per day/boepd seperti pada 2015.

Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Board Member Tumbur Parlindungan menuturkan, sektor hulu migas memiliki efek berganda bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional, mulai dari pemanfaatan produk lokal hingga transaksi perbankan. Setiap investasi di sektor migas sebesar US$ 1 juta akan menciptakan nilai tambah US$ 1,6 juta, menaikkan produk domestik bruto US$ 700 ribu, serta menciptakan lapangan kerja bagi 100 masyarakat Indonesia.

Dari hasil kajian Boston Consulting Group, sektor hulu migas berpotensi mendorong tambahan pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto sebesar 1,2% per tahun hingga 2025. Jika level produksi migas di 2015 dipertahankan sampai 2025, impact-nya terhadap pertumbuhan GDP sebesar 1,2% per tahun," kata dia dalam jumpa pers The 41st IPA Convention and Exhibiton di Jakarta

Persentase itu setara rata-rata pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto sebesar US$ 120 miliar per tahun pada 2025. Tidak hanya itu, lapangan kerja yang dapat diciptakan mencapai 40-50 ribu pekerjaan.

Menurut data The Boston Consulting Group, hitungan tersebut dengan asumsi harga minyak US$ 50 per barel dan gas US$ 15 per barel setara minyak selama 2016 2025. Sementara upaya mempertahankan produksi agar tidak terjun bebas diasumsikan dari tambahan produksi melalui pengurasan tahap lanjut (enhanced oil recovery/ EOR) menaikkau sekitar 20% dan proyek gas yang masih idle kira-kira mendongkrak 15%.

"Jadi makin banyak investor masuk maka ekonomi membaik. Yang harus dilihat domino efeknya ini, bukan hanya penerimaan negara. Sayangnya, Direktur Eksekutif IPA Marjolijn Wajong menambahkan, investasi migas nasional justru terus turun. Pada 2016 saja, investasi hulu migas tercatat hanya US$ 11,15 miliar, turun 27% dari realisasi tahun sebelumnya yang mencapai US$ 15,34 miliar. Hal ini berarti kegiatan eksplorasi dan produksi migas nasional juga turut terpangkas.

Dampak langsungnya, wilayah eksplorasi dan cadangan migas terus berkurang. Jumlah wilayah eksplorasi mengecil dari 228 wilayah pada 2015 menjadi 199 wilayah pada 2016. Dari jumlah inipun, sebanyak 37 wilayah sedang dalam proses terminasi. Sementara cadangan minyak berkurang dari 3,6 miliar barel pada 2015 menjadi 3,3 miliar barel pada 2016.

Bagi daerah penghasil migas, penurunan produksi migas menahan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi. "Dengan turunnya aktivitas, pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah migas juga turun. Misalnya daerah Rokan di Riau, pertumbuhan ekonominya tercatat hanya 1% pada 2015 dari sebelumnya 4,1%,“ kata dia. Hal yang sama juga menimpa daerah lainnya pada periode 2014 ke 2015, seperti Tanjung Jabung Timur di Jambi, Kutai Kertanegara di Kalimantan Timur, dan Sorong di Papua Barat.

Marjolijn mengakui, industri migas nasional memang masih dalam situasi sulit. Anjloknya harga minyak memaksa perusahaan migas untuk menghitung ulang anggaran investasinya. Namun peluang di sektor untuk  migas nasional sebenarnya masih cukup bagus.

"Walau seluruh dunia ada masalah penurunan harga minyak, tetapi semangat untuk berkompetisi harus ditingkatkan. Jadi kalau membuat kebijakan mesti dipikir bisa menarik dibanding negara lain atau tidak,".

Rebutan Kapital 

Ketua IPA Christina Verchere 

Ketua IPA Christina Verchere menjelaskan, pasca jatuhnya harga minyak mentah, seluruh perusahaan migas baik perusahaan lokal, nasional, dan internasional menghadapi tantangan besar dalam mengatur arus kas mereka. Sehingga, berbagai upaya dilakukan seperti menetapkan ulang besaran biaya produksi dasar dan merenegosiasi kontrak-kontrak yang dimilikinya.

Dampak dari hal ini, modal investasi yang ada di dunia juga menurun. Indonesia harus berupaya agar sebagian dana investasi ini ada yang masuk ke sektor hulu migas nasional. "Jadi perlu didiskusikan bagaimana Indonesia tetap menarik untuk merebut kapital dunia di sektor hulu migas," tegas dia. 

Persaingan Indonesia untuk memperoleh investasi disebutnya berada dalam kancah global. Artinya, Indonesia tidak hanya harus melihat negara-negara yang berada dalam satu regional, tetapi seluruh negara yang memiliki cadangan migas di dunia. Migas Indonesia sendiri dinilainya cukup kompleks, terdapat eksplorasi laut dalam yang harus dimitigasi resiko, di sisi lain beberapa wilayah memiliki risiko rendah mengingat adanya produksi yang telah mengalir. "Indonesia memiliki satu hal yang sangat kuat, yakni pasar yang terus bertumbuh. Ini pasti akan menarik investasi," tutur Christina.

Namun, Indonesia tetap harus berkompetisi menarik kapital yang ada di dunia. Ketika melihat satu negara, perusahaan migas biasanya akan melihat kondisi bawah permukaan (subsurface) migasnya, seberapa besar tingkat pengembalian modal yang bisa diperoleh, dan apakah negara tersebut menjamin kesinambungan investasi mengingat proyek migas biasanya jangka panjang.

Kontan, Page-14, Monday, May, 15, 2017

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