ICP Tends to Weaken

Crude Price

During the period from January to May 2017, the price of Indonesian crude oil or Indonesian Crude Price tended to decrease.

Based on the information and the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesian crude price (ICP) in May 2017 was recorded at US $ 47.09 per barrel, down 4.98% from US $ 49.56 in the previous month. For ICP sweet light crude, the decrease was 4.81% from US $ 50.51 per barrel to US $ 48.08 per barrel.

ESDM Minister Ignatius Jonan said the ICP movement since the beginning of the year is not very significant. However, there is a tendency of price decline to enter the end of the first half of 2017.

"ICP in January was US $ 51.88 per barrel, then February US $ 52.50 per barrel, March US $ 48.71, April US $ 49.56 per barrel then May US $ 47.09 per barrel. So, if the average ICP from January to May is US $ 49.90, it is still below US $ 50 per barrel, "he said at the ESDM Ministry office on Monday (5/6).

Under these conditions, Jonan stated that the government would not be too hasty to propose changes in ICP assumptions in the 2017 Budget Revised State Budget (APBN).

According to him, the movement of world oil prices still need to be scrutinized. He explained that the influence of oil supply and demand from the largest oil consumer countries such as the United States, Japan, China, and the European Union greatly affected the movement of oil prices. Meanwhile, high demand will be strongly influenced by the economic growth of these countries.

Jonan added, geopolitical conditions also need to be observed. According to him, events in other parts of the world that can affect oil prices can not be guessed. "Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, broke off diplomatic relations with Qatar, we do not know what the trends are about."

Like ICP, the average world oil price in international market also decreased. Brent oil price (ICE) fell 4.51% from US $ 53.82 per barrel to US $ 51.39 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) fell 5.05% from US $ 51.12 per barrel to US $ 48.54 per barrel.

IN INDONESIAN

ICP Cenderung Melemah

Sepanjang periode Januari-Mei 2017, harga minyak mentah Indonesia atau Indonesian Crude Price cenderung mengalami penurunan.

Berdasarkan keterangan dan Kementerian ESDM, Indonesian crude price (ICP) Mei 2017 tercatat senilai US$47,09 per barel atau turun 4,98% dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya US$49,56. Untuk ICP sweet light crude, penurunannya sebesar 4,81% dari US$50,51 per barel menjadi US$48,08 per barel. 

Menteri ESDM Ignasius Jonan mengatakan, pergerakan ICP sejak awal tahun memang tidak terlalu signifikan. Namun, ada kecenderungan penurunan harga hingga memasuki akhir semester I/2017.

“ICP Januari US$51,88 per barel, lalu Februari US$ 52,50 per barel, Maret US$ 48,71, April US$49,56 per barel kemudian bulan Mei US$47,09 per barel. Jadi, kalau rata-rata ICP Januari-Mei US$49,90, masih di bawah US$50 per barel,” ujarnya di kantor Kementerian ESDM, Senin (5/6).

Dengan kondisi tersebut, Jonan menyatakan bahwa pemerintah tidak akan terlalu terburu-buru mengajukan perubahan asumsi ICP dalam Anggaran Penerimaan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) Perubahan 2017.

Menurutnya, pergerakan harga minyak dunia masih perlu dicermati. Dia menjelaskan, pengaruh pasokan dan permintaan minyak dari negara-negara konsumen terbesar minyak seperti Amerika Serikat, Jepang, China, Serta Uni Eropa sangat memengaruhi pergerakan harga minyak. Adapun, tinggi rendahnya permintaan akan sangat dipengaruhi oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi negara-negara tersebut.

Jonan menambahkan, kondisi geopolitik pun perlu dicermati. Menurutnya, kejadian di belahan dunia lain yang dapat memengaruhi harga minyak tidak bisa ditebak. "Bahrain, Arab Saudi, UEA, Mesir, memutuskan hubungan diplomatik dengan Qatar. Kita tidak tahu trennya menjadi bagaimana dengan kondisi seperti ini."

Seperti halnya ICP, rata-rata harga minyak dunia di pasar internasional juga mengalami penurunan. Harga minyak Brent (ICE) turun 4,51 % dari US$53,82 per barel menjadi US$51,39 per barel. Sementara itu, minyak jenis West Texas Intermediate (WTI) di New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) turun 5,05% dari US$51,12 per barel menjadi US$48,54 per barel. 

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-30, Tuesday, June 6, 2017