Oil Price Continue downward trend towards US $ 45 per barrel.
Diplomatic conflicts in the Middle East caused oil prices to collapse. Wednesday (7/6), at 15.00 WIB, WTI oil price of July 2017 delivery contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.54% to US $ 47.93 per barrel compared to the previous day. In a week, the price fell 0.8%.
The decisions of several countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt, cut ties with Qatar earlier this week to a negative sentiment for oil prices in the short term. Moreover, this action is feared could thwart the agreement on oil production restrictions between OPEC and Russia.
Currently, Qatar's oil production is 600,000 barrels per day. This figure is smaller than other OPEC members. But market participants said the tension between OPEC members could hamper oil prices.
However, Finex Futures analyst Nanang Wahyudin said the conflict could also lift oil prices. Therefore, the distribution process of oil delivery is disrupted after the closure of transportation routes, both air, land and sea. "Moreover, the US dollar exchange rate is weakening, thus helping to lift prices," said Nanang
He predicts, even if the Fed raised interest rates this month, commodity prices, including oil, will not fall significantly. The reason, market participants already anticipate it.
US production rose
Oil prices are also difficult to strengthen because US oil production (US) continues to sped. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that gasoline stocks in the US rose 4.08 million barrels. Now market participants are waiting for official data on US oil reserves from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), released Wednesday (7/6) evening local time.
US oil production is also expected to rise to 10 million barrels per day in 2018. "This year, US oil production is in the range of 9.3 million barrels per day," said Asia Tradepoint Futures Analyst Deddy Yusuf Siregar. This projection is the burden of oil prices in the long term.
Uncle Sam's decision came out of the climate change deal Paris is increasingly increasing the confidence of market participants that US oil production is rising.
Technically, Deddy saw oil prices rolling below the moving average (MA) 50, MA100 and MA200, suggesting a weakening trend. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is in the negative area. Then stochastic down at level 36, as well as the relative strength index (RSI) which weakened to level 43.
Deddy predicted oil prices will still be down on Thursday (8/6) and move around US $ 46-US $ 49 per barrel. While Nanang estimates, oil prices in a week will move in the range of US $ 46-US $ 49 per barrel.
IN INDONESIAN
Konflik Timur Tengah Redam Harga Minyak
Harga minyak Ianjutkan tren penurunan menuju ke bawah US$ 45 per barel.
Konflik diplomatik di Timur Tengah membuat harga minyak kian terpuruk. Rabu (7/6), pukul 15.00 WIB, harga minyak WTI kontrak pengiriman Juli 2017 di New York Mercantile Exchange turun 0,54% menjadi US$ 47,93 per barel dibanding sehari sebelumnya. Dalam sepekan, harganya turun 0,8%.
Keputusan beberapa negara di kawasan Timur Tengah, seperti Arab Saudi, Uni Emirat Arab, Bahrain dan Mesir, memutuskan hubungan dengan Qatar di awal pekan ini menjadi sentimen negatif bagi harga minyak dalam jangka pendek. Apalagi aksi ini dikhawatirkan bisa menggagalkan kesepakatan pembatasan produksi minyak antara OPEC dengan Rusia.
Saat ini, produksi minyak Qatar sebesar 600.000 barel per hari. Angka ini lebih kecil daripada anggota OPEC lainnya. Tapi pelaku pasar menilai ketegangan antara anggota OPEC bisa menghambat penguatan harga minyak.
Namun, Analis Finex Berjangka Nanang Wahyudin menyebut, konflik tersebut juga bisa mengangkat harga minyak. Sebab, proses distribusi pengiriman minyak terganggu setelah adanya penutupan jalur transportasi, baik udara, darat dan laut. "Apalagi nilai tukar dollar AS sedang melemah, sehingga membantu mengangkat harga," kata Nanang
Ia memprediksi, jika pun The Fed menaikkan suku bunga bulan ini, harga-harga komoditas, termasuk minyak, tidak akan turun signifikan. Alasannya, pelaku pasar sudah mengantisipasi hal itu.
Produksi AS naik
Harga minyak juga sulit menguat lantaran produksi minyak Amerika Serikat (AS) terus melesat. American Petroleum Institute (API) melaporkan, stok bahan bakar bensin di AS naik 4,08 juta barel. Kini pelaku pasar menanti data resmi cadangan minyak AS dari Energi Information Administration (EIA), yang dirilis Rabu (7/6) malam waktu setempat.
Produksi minyak AS juga diperkirakan naik menjadi 10 juta barel per hari di 2018 nanti. "Tahun ini, produksi minyak AS di kisaran 9,3 juta barel per hari," kata Analis Asia Tradepoint Futures Deddy Yusuf Siregar. Proyeksi ini menjadi beban harga minyak dalam jangka panjang.
Keputusan Negeri Paman Sam keluar dari kesepakatan perubahan iklim Paris makin memperbesar keyakinan pelaku pasar bahwa produksi minyak AS naik.
Secara teknikal, Deddy melihat harga minyak bergulir di bawah moving average (MA) 50, MA100 dan MA200, menunjukkan tren melemah. Indikator moving average convergence divergence (MACD) berada di area negatif. Lalu stochastic turun di level 36, demikian juga dengan relative strength index (RSI) yang melemah ke level 43.
Deddy memprediksi harga minyak masih tergerus pada Kamis (8/6) dan bergerak dikisaran US$ 46-US$ 49 per barel. Sedangkan Nanang memperkirakan, harga minyak dalam sepekan akan bergerak di rentang US$ 46-US$ 49 per barel.
Kontan, Page-7, Thursday, June 8, 2017
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