The impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The government proposes that the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) price is set at US $ 55 per barrel in the 2018 State Budget. In the 2017 APBN, ICP is set at US $ 45 per barrel.
"Consideration, oil price fluctuations slowly rise. In 2019-2020 it is estimated to reach US $ 60 per barrel, "said Director General of Oil and Gas of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, I Gusti Wiratrnaja Puja
According to Wiratmaja, geopolitical factors have a major impact on oil prices, including ICP. "The situation in the Middle East at this time oil prices have started to move again, rise again. So, geopolitical factors are very big role "he said.
Earlier, six Arab states broke off diplomatic ties with Qatar. The severance of diplomatic relations was made due to allegations of Qatar's involvement with groups that have been active in terrorist activities. The tension causes oil supply to decrease and cause prices to rise. Qatar is known as a country rich in natural resources, especially natural gas. The country's gas reserves reach 150 trillion cubic feet.
Although in the 2018 ICP budget proposed at US $ 55 per barrel, according to Wiratmaja, the government will not revise the price of oil in APBN Changes (APBNP) 2017.
"Now, the average ICP to May US $ 49.9 per barrel. Approximately until the end of the year should be achieved, he said.
Earlier, the Ministry of Finance estimated that the price of Indonesian crude oil or ICP touched US $ 50 per barrel this year. In the 2017 State Budget, ICP is below the forecast of US $ 45 per barrel.
"Our assetment is (US $ 50 per barrel). For APBN-P is still running. Later additional receipts, we will calculate the details of it, "said Head of Fiscal Policy Office of the Finance Ministry Suahasil Nazara.
In line with Suahasil, Deputy Finance Minister Mardiasmo said his ministry's outlook on ICP rose from that set in the 2017 APBN. "Non-tax revenues must increase if ICP rises," Mardiasmo said.
On Wednesday trading (6/6), oil prices surged on the back of a drop in US crude stockpiles. Based on data from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), US oil inventories may fall by 3.25 million barrels.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude or West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for July delivery gained US $ 0.79 to US $ 48.19 a barrel. The price of Brent North Sea crude oil, as quoted by Antara, for August delivery, rose US $ 0.65 to US $ 50.12 on the London Futures Exchange. Earlier, oil prices rose on tension in the Middle East that raised market concerns.
IN INDONESIAN
Harga Minyak Tahun Depan Dipatok US$ 55 Per Barel
Dampak ketegangan geopolitik di Timur Tengah.
Pemerintah mengusulkan harga minyak mentah Indonesia atau Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) dipatok sebesar US$ 55 per barel dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2018. Dalam APBN 2017, ICP ditetapkan sebesar US$ 45 per barel.
“Pertimbangannya, fluktuasi harga minyak naik pelan-pelan. Pada 2019-2020 diperkirakan sampai US$ 60 per barel,” kata Direktur Jenderal Minyak dan Gas Bumi Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral, I Gusti Wiratrnaja Puja
Menurut Wiratmaja, faktor geopolitik berpengaruh besar terhadap harga minyak, termasuk ICP. “Situasi di Timur Tengah saat ini harga minyak sudah mulai bergerak lagi, naik lagi. Jadi, faktor geopolitik perannya besar sekali" ujar dia.
Sebelumnya, enam negara Arab memutuskan hubungan diplomatik dengan Qatar. Pemutusan hubungan diplomatik tersebut dilakukan karena tudingan keterlibatan Qatar dengan kelompok-kelompok yang selama ini aktif dalam kegiatan terorisme. Ketegangan tersebut menyebabkan pasokan minyak berkurang dan menyebabkan harga naik. Qatar selama ini dikenal sebagai negara kaya akan sumber daya alam, khususnya gas alam. Cadangan gas negara itu mencapai 150 triliun kaki kubik.
Meskipun dalam APBN 2018 ICP diusulkan sebesar US$ 55 per barel, menurut Wiratmaja pemerintah tidak akan merevisi harga minyak dalam APBN Perubahan (APBNP) 2017.
“Sekarang, rata-rata ICP sampai Mei US$ 49,9 per barel. Kira-kira sampai akhir tahun seharusnya tercapai, katanya.
Sebelumnya, Kementerian Keuangan memperkirakan harga minyak mentah Indonesia atau ICP menyentuh US$ 50 per barel tahun ini. Dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara 2017, ICP berada di bawah perkiraan tersebut, yakni US$ 45 per barel.
“Assessment kami sebesar (US$ 50 per barel). Untuk APBN-P masih berjalan. Nanti tambahan penerimaannya, akan kami hitung detail-nya,” ujar Kepala Badan Kebijakan Fiskal Kementerian Keuangan Suahasil Nazara.
Senada dengan Suahasil, Wakil Menteri Keuangan Mardiasmo menuturkan outlook kementeriannya mengenai ICP naik dibanding yang ditetapkan dalam APBN 2017. “PNBP (Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak) pasti meningkat kalau ICP naik,” kata Mardiasmo.
Pada perdagangan rabu (6/6), harga minyak melonjak lantaran penurunan stok minyak mentah Amerika Serikat. Berdasarkan data Badan Informasi Energi AS (EIA), persediaan minyak Amerika mungkin turun 3,25 juta barel.
Di New York Mercantile Exchange, harga minyak light sweet atau West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Juli naik US$ 0,79 menjadi US$ 48,19 per barel. Adapun harga minyak mentah Brent North Sea, seperti dikutip Antara, untuk pengiriman Agustus ,naik US$ 0,65 menjadi US$ 50,12 di London Futures Exchange. Sebelumnya harga minyak naik akibat ketegangan di Timur Tengah yang menimbulkan kekhawatiran pasar.
Koran Tempo, Page-17, Thursday, June 8, 2017
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