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Thursday, June 15, 2017

Potential Problems of Oil and Gas Import



Exploration Capacity Must Be Raised Triple

Indonesia will potentially face a number of problems if dependence on oil and gas imports is growing. Imports are hard to avoid as oil and gas consumption continues to grow, while domestic production continues to fall.

Therefore, it needs a breakthrough to reduce dependence on imports. It was raised in a discussion on "Implementing Indonesia's Energy Plan (RUEN): Status of Oil and Gas Exploration Update and Enchanced Oil Recovery" on Monday (12/6), in Jakarta. The discussions held by the Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) and Kompas daily featured members of the National Energy Board (DEN) Andang Bachtiar and Executive Director of ReforMiner Institute Komaidi Notonegoro. Andang who is abroad talking through long distance video.

Based on the National Energy General Plan document stipulated in Presidential Regulation No. 22 of 2017, Indonesia's crude oil demand in 2040 is projected 4.5 million barrels per day (BOPD). The domestic production is estimated at 600,000 BOPD.

The demand for natural gas in Indonesia in 2050 is estimated to be around 25,000 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD), while domestic production in the same year is 5,000 MMSCFD. The difference between oil and gas needs must be met through import.

"Dependence on imports should be wary of. Oil and gas imports could potentially deplete Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, "Komaidi said.

Tony Prasetiantono, one of the participants of the discussion, responded to the import will be more complicated if the price of crude oil rises. What will be the problem then is the issue of affordability. High purchase prices can reduce the ability of countries to get energy supplies.

"In addition to the affordability, high oil prices have the potential to bolster energy subsidies. In the past, when the price Oil 100 US dollars per barrel, energy subsidies of Rp 350 trillion per year, "said Tony

Exploration

Andang said, one solution to reduce the pressure of oil and gas imports Indonesia is to increase exploration capacity at least three times from now. Moreover, in RUEN it is asserted that the replacement ratio of petroleum reserves must be 100 percent by 2025. That is, the discovery of new oil reserves must be equal to every barrel of oil drained.

Director General of Oil and Gas at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources I Gusti Nyoman Wiratmaja said the oil and gas industry is still considered important by the government. Although the country's revenues from the oil and gas sector have continued to decline in recent years, the double impact of the sector remains substantial for the national economy.

Separately, Corporate Affairs Director of PT Donggi-Senoro LNG Aditya Mandala said it has bagged a contract for delivering liquefied natural gas abroad by 2027. For 2017 alone, long-term contracts have 40 cargo of liquefied natural gas. However, do not rule out the liquefied natural gas sold to the domestic market if there is a need.

IN INDONESIA

Potensi Masalah Impor Migas


Kapasitas Eksplorasi Harus Dinaikkan Tiga Kali Lipat

Indonesia akan berpotensi menghadapi sejumlah masalah apabila ketergantungan pada impor minyak dan gas semakin besar. Impor sulit dihindari seiring terus membesarnya konsumsi minyak dan gas bumi, sedangkan produksi di dalam negeri terus turun.

Oleh karena itu, perlu terobosan untuk mengurangi ketergantungan pada impor. Demikian mengemuka dalam diskusi bertema ”Implementing Indonesia’s Energy Plan (RUEN): Status Update of Oil and Gas Exploration and Enchanced Oil Recovery”, Senin (12/6), di Jakarta. 

     Diskusi yang diselenggarakan Asosiasi Perminyakan Indonesia (IPA) dan harian Kompas ini menghadirkan nara sumber anggota Dewan Energi Nasional (DEN) Andang Bachtiar dan Direktur Eksekutif ReforMiner Institute Komaidi Notonegoro. Andang yang sedang di luar negeri berbicara melalui video jarak jauh.

Berdasar dokumen Rencana Umum Energi Nasional yang tertuang dalam Peraturan Presiden Nomor 22 Tahun 2017, kebutuhan minyak mentah Indonesia pada 2040 diproyeksikan 4,5 juta barrel per hari (BOPD). Adapun produksi dalam negeri diperkirakan 600.000 BOPD.

Kebutuhan gas bumi di Indonesia pada 2050 diperkirakan sekitar 25.000 juta standar kaki kubik per hari (MMSCFD), sedangkan produksi dalam negeri di tahun yang sama 5.000 MMSCFD. Selisih kebutuhan minyak dan gas tersebut harus dipenuhi melalui impor.

”Ketergantungan terhadap impor harus diwaspadai. Impor migas yang membesar berpotensi bisa menghabiskan cadangan devisa Indonesia,” ujar Komaidi.

Tony Prasetiantono, salah satu peserta diskusi, menanggapi impor akan semakin pelik apabila harga minyak mentah naik. Yang akan menjadi persoalan kemudian adalah masalah keterjangkauan. Harga beli yang tinggi dapat mengurangi kemampuan negara mendapatkan pasokan energi.

”Selain soal keterjangkauan, harga minyak yang tinggi berpotensi membengkakkan subsidi energi. Pada masa lalu, saat harga minyak 100 dollar AS per barrel, subsidi energi Rp 350 triliun per tahun,” ucap Tony

Eksplorasi

Andang mengatakan, salah satu solusi mengurangi tekanan impor migas Indonesia adalah dengan meningkatkan kapasitas eksplorasi sedikitnya tiga kali lipat dari sekarang. Apalagi, dalam RUEN ditegaskan rasio penggantian cadangan minyak bumi harus 100 persen pada 2025. Artinya, penemuan cadangan minyak yang baru harus setara dengan setiap barrel minyak yang dikuras.

Direktur Jenderal Minyak dan Gas Bumi Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Minaral I Gusti Nyoman Wiratmaja mengatakan, industri migas tetap dipandang penting oleh pemerintah. Meskipun penerimaan negara dari sektor migas terus turun dalam beberap tahun terakhir dampak ganda sektor ini masih sangat besar bagi perekonomian nasional.

Secara terpisah, Corporate Affairs Director PT Donggi-Senoro LNG Aditya Mandala mengatakan pihaknya telah mengantongi kontrak pengiriman gas alam cair ke luar negeri hingga 2027. Untuk 2017 saja, yang telah terkontrak jangka panjang ada 40 kargo gas alam cair. Namun, tidak menutup kemungkinan gas alam cair dijual ke pasar dalam negeri jika ada yang memerlukan.

Kompas, Page-18, Tuesday, June 13, 2017

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