The government's decision to include four oil and gas projects into national priorities is expected to accelerate the realization of investment in the oil and gas sector.
The government hopes that priority project labels will have new powers so that the project can run quickly. The four oil and gas projects are the Eternal Field, Masela Block in Maluku; Field Jambaran-Tiung Biru in East Java; Indonesia Deepwater Develop ment (IDD) project in East Kalimantan; And Tangguh Train III in West Papua.
The basis for priority project design refers to several principles. First, conformity with Presidential Regulation no. 75/2014 on the Committee for the Acceleration of the Provision of Priority Infrastructure (KPPIP), projects that are economically or financially beneficial are greater than other projects in the same sector.
Secondly, according to the data KPPIP, of the 248 projects that dominated the road and dam construction, project investment of Rp 289 billion gas development project Masela gas (Inpex Masela Ltd), Rp 124.8 trillion for IDD (Chevron), liquefied natural gas / Tangguh LNG Train III (BP Tangguh) Rp 104 trillion, and Jambaran-Tiung Biru (Pertamina EP Cepu) Rp 26.7 trillion.
The total investment value of the four projects is Rp 545.4 trillion or equivalent to about eight projects of Jakarta-Bandung high speed train which cost Rp 68.7 trillion.
Third, the project needs support for problem solving from KPPIP and the government.
Fourth, projects that have a large private participation impact so that it is attempted to start construction in 2018, reaching the finan- cial close in 2019 and can trigger an interest
Private Investing.
Projects included in KPPIP radar has received support in the form of licensing such acceleration in Patimban Port project, the acceleration and completion of land acquisition constraints, and the achievement of such financial close on a power plant project stems.
Other support is the settlement of funding issues such as the Jakarta MKT project, preparation of the study of project preparation studies, publication of legal basis such as Government Regulation no. 27/2017 and solving the spatial problem problem as happened in the Java-1 steam power plant project.
In further examination, three of the four projects that have not reached the final stage of investment / FID decision-making, the main problem is the commercial aspect.
First, the Abadi field is currently being discussed between the government and contractors associated with any conditions that allow it to gas field development can go as economies of scale after President Joko Widodo decided change in LNG development scheme which was originally an offshore plant into a refinery ashore.
The government is still looking for potential buyers of gas in order to decide the capacity of the LNG plant to be built. Meanwhile, the first gas and Masela targeted the government in 2026.
Secondly, the Jambaran-Tiung Biru project which is still in the negotiation stage of price with PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara as a potential buyer of gas. The contractor's gas price has not been agreed yet because it has not been in accordance with the buyer's ability and economic development of the field. The project is targeted to produce its first gas by 2019.
Third, the IDD project since the government to submit the revised proposal development plan (plan of development / PoD) at the beginning of 2016 until now there has been no progress as a matter of economic assumptions the project is being evaluated by the contractor following the rejection of the proposed offering investment incentives in the form of credit.
In addition, it is also discussed about the use of shared facilities in the vicinity of IDD projects so that investment can be lower. At least, a project that needs only land acquisition and land acquisition is Tangguh Train III which is planned for the physical construction process by the end of this year so that gas starts to flow in 2020.
HARDER
The development of the gas field is actually more challenging than the oil field. Upstream Oil and Gas Gas Analyst Wood Mackenzie Johan Utama said that in addition to licensing and land acquisition, the contractor must ensure the infrastructure and buyers of gas. In addition, other issues to be solved are related to the gas price agreement with the buyer.
Not meeting the ability of buyers and economics of field development to make gas purchase agreement is canceled. Sometimes, buyers who have received allocations from the government can not buy gas from a field because the price in which the buyer wants has not been agreed by the gas producer.
"For the gas field, the most common factor being the bottleneck is the gas marketing factor."
Meanwhile, Upstream Director of Pertamina, Syamsu Alam said that there is currently no positive impact with the entry of the Jambaran-Tiung Biru project as one of the national priority projects. However, he believes the national priority label will have a positive impact on the development of the gas field in East Java.
"Influential for sure, but if not now. If it is a priority, there must be effort, "he said.
It would be better if the momentum of the entry of gas development projects into the list of national priority projects can show the seriousness of the government to secure domestic gas supply at the time of assumption of gas imports in 2020.
Licensing and access to land acquisition actually become what should be given by the government because it involves the aspect of ease of doing business.
Meanwhile, commercial and fiscal aspects should also be of concern as it concerns the competitiveness of investments when other countries are equally 'selling' to attract investors. So, whether the entry of four gas projects into the priontas project into a kind of simsalabim or abracadabra Spell?
IN INDONESIA
Menanti Efek Prioritas 4 Proyek Gas
Keputusan pemerintah dengan memasukkan empat proyek minyak dan gas bumi ke dalam prioritas nasional diharapkan mampu mempercepat realisasi investasi sektor migas.
Pemerintah berharap agar label proyek prioritas akan ada kekuatan baru sehingga proyek bisa berjalan dengan cepat. Keempat proyek migas tersebut adalah Iapangan Abadi, Blok Masela di Maluku; Lapangan Jambaran-Tiung Biru di Jawa Timur; Proyek Indonesia Deepwater Develop ment (IDD) di Kalimantan Timur; dan Tangguh Train III di Papua Barat.
Dasar penetapan proyek prioritas mengacu pada beberapa prinsip. Pertama, kesesuaian dengan Peraturan Presiden No. 75/2014 tentang Komite Percepatan Penyediaan lnfrastruktur Prioritas (KPPIP), proyek yang bermanfaat secara perekonomian atau secara finansial nilainya lebih besar dari proyek lain di sektor yang sama.
Kedua, sesuai dengan data KPPIP, dari 248 proyek yang didominasi pembangunan jalan dan bendungan ini, investasi dari proyek pengembangan gas Rp 289 triliun proyek gas Masela (Inpex Masela Limited), Rp 124,8 triliun untuk IDD (Chevron), kilang gas alam cair/LNG Tangguh Train III (BP Tangguh) Rp 104 triliun, dan Jambaran-Tiung Biru (Pertamina EP Cepu) Rp 26,7 triliun.
Total nilai investasi keempat proyek itu Rp 545,4 triliun atau setara dengan sekitar delapan proyek kereta cepat Jakarta-Bandung yang menelan biaya Rp 68,7 triliun.
Ketiga, proyek itu membutuhkan dukungan penyelesaian masalah dari KPPIP dan pemerintah.
Keempat, proyek yang memberikan dampak partisipasi swasta yang besar sehingga diupayakan agar bisa memulai konstruksi pada 2018, mencapai penuntasan pendanaan (finanfial close) pada 2019 dan bisa memicu ketertarikan
Swasta Berinvestasi.
Proyek yang masuk dalam radar KPPIP telah mendapat dukungan berupa percepatan perizinan seperti pada proyek Pelabuhan Patimban, percepatan dan penyelesaian kendala pengadaan lahan, dan pencapaian financial close seperti pada proyek PLTU Batang.
Dukungan lainnya yakni penyelesaian masalah pendanaan seperti pada proyek MKT Jakarta, penyusunan kajian kajian penyiapan proyek, penerbitan landasan hukum seperti Peraturan Pemerintah No. 27/2017 dan penyelesaian masalah penataan ruang seperti terjadi di proyek PLTU Jawa-1.
Jika ditilik lebih lanjut, tiga dari empat proyek yang belum menyentuh tahapan penyampaian keputusan akhir investasi/FID, masalah utamanya pada aspek komersial.
Pertama, Lapangan Abadi saat ini masih dibahas antara pemerintah dan kontraktor terkait dengan kondisi apa saja yang memungkinkan agar pengembangan lapangan gas bisa berjalan sesuai skala ekonomi setelah Presiden Joko Widodo memutuskan perubahan skema pembangunan kilang LNG yang semula kilang terapung menjadi kilang darat.
Pemerintah pun masih mencari calon pembeli gas agar bisa diputuskan kapasitas kilang LNG yang akan dibangun. Adapun, gas pertama dan Masela ditargetkan pemerintah pada 2026.
Kedua, proyek Jambaran-Tiung Biru yang kini masih dalam tahap negosiasi harga dengan PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara sebagai calon pembeli gasnya. Harga gas yang telah ditetapkan kontraktor belum bisa disepakati karena belum sesuai dengan kemampuan pembeli dan keekonomian pengembangan lapangan. Proyek itu ditargetkan bisa menghasilkan gas pertamanya pada 2019.
Ketiga, proyek IDD yang sejak pemerintah mengembalikan revisi proposal rencana pengembangan (plan of development/PoD) pada awal 2016 hingga kini belum terdapat progres karena hitungan asumsi keekonomian proyek sedang dievaluasi oleh kontraktor menyusul ditolaknya usulan pemberian insentif berupa investment credit.
Selain itu, dibahas pula soal opsi-opsi penggunaan fasilitas bersama di sekitar proyek IDD agar investasi bisa lebih rendah. Paling tidak, proyek yang hanya membutuhkan bantuan perizinan dan pembebasan lahan yakni Tangguh Train III yang rencananya proses konstruksi fisik pada akhir tahun ini sehingga gas mulai mengalir pada 2020.
LEBIH SULIT
Pengembangan lapangan gas sebenarnya lebih menantang dibandingkan dengan lapangan minyak. Analis Hulu Migas Asia Pasifik Wood Mackenzie Johan Utama mengatakan, selain soal perizinan dan pembebasan lahan, kontraktor harus memastikan adanya infrastruktur dan pembeli gas. Selain itu, masalah lain yang harus diselesaikan yakni terkait dengan kesepakatan harga gas dengan pembeli.
Belum bertemunya kemampuan pembeli dan keekonomian pengembangan lapangan membuat perjanjian jual beli gas batal dilakukan. Terkadang, pembeli yang sudah mendapat alokasi dari pemerintah batal membeli gas dari suatu lapangan karena harga yang di inginkan pembeli belum disepakati oleh produsen gas.
“Untuk lapangan gas, faktor yang paling sering menjadi penghambat adalah faktor pemasaran gas.”
Sementara itu, Direktur Hulu Pertamina, Syamsu Alam mengatakan bahwa saat ini belum terdapat dampak positif dengan masuknya proyek Jambaran-Tiung Biru sebagai salah satu proyek prioritas nasional. Namun, dia meyakini label prioritas nasional akan membawa dampak positif bagi pengembangan lapangan gas di Jawa Timur itu.
“Berpengaruh pasti, tetapi kalau sekarang, belum. Kalau itu prioritas, harus ada effort,” katanya.
Akan lebih baik bila momentum masuknya proyek pengembangan gas ke daftar proyek prioritas nasional bisa menunjukkan kesungguhan pemerintah untuk mengamankan pasokan gas domestik di saat asumsi impor gas pada 2020.
Perizinan dan akses pembebasan lahan sebenarnya menjadi apa yang semestinya diberikan pemerintah karena menyangkut aspek kemudahan berbisnis.
Sementara itu, aspek komersial juga fiskal seharusnya menjadi perhatian karena menyangkut daya saing investasi ketika negara lain sama-sama sedang ‘berjualan’ menarik investor. Jadi, apakah masuknya empat proyek gas ke dalam proyek priontas menjadi semacam mantra simsalabim atau abrakadabra?
BISNIS INDONESIA, Page-30, Monday, July 17, 2017
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