Natural gas prices managed to strengthen after earlier this week touched the lowest level since May 2016. But natural gas is still overshadowed by negative sentiment because of the issue of supply and weather are less supportive.
Thursday (3/8) at 20:41 pm showed that the price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange delivery in September 2017 sold US $ 2.83 per mmbtu, up 0.67% compared with the previous day. But last week, prices trimmed 3.77%.
Andri Hardianto, Asia Tradepoint Futures analyst, sees that currently the price of natural gas is in sideways position. Although prices are gradually improving, but the market is still waiting and see waiting for the release of data on natural gas stocks of the United States (US).
Market participants forecast the amount of US natural gas stock last week's Energy Information Administration (EIA) version rose from 17 billion cubic feet to 23 billion cubic feet.
"If appropriate expectations, it could be the price of natural gas will be back depressed," said Andri, Thursday (3/8).
In addition to supply factors, unusually hot summer weather conditions in the US are likely to suppress demand. This weather issue is important because 50% of natural gas consumption in the US comes from household activities. If the weather is not as hot as usual, then the use of refrigeration will be reduced.
Not only the US, negative sentiment also came from Japan. After a time to increase natural gas demand because there is a leak of nuclear reactors some time ago, now the Sunrise Country is actually reactivate nuclear power plants, so the demand for natural gas back down.
"Until the end of the third quarter, the possibility of natural gas price will move in the range of US $ 2.60-US $ 2.70 per mmbtu," said Andri.Although the current supply of natural gas from Qatar is being disrupted due to air sanctions imposed by Saudi Arabia, But it will not affect the price movement of natural gas, which is more influenced by US supply and demand conditions.
Technically, the current price of natural gas moves above the moving average line (MA) 50, MA 100 and MA 200. Then the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is in the negative area of 0.04. The indicator of the relative strength index (RSI) moves up at the 38 level. Then the stochastic indicator moves up to the level of 28.5 Although the fundamental condition gives a correction signal, technically all indicators indicate price strengthening.
On Friday (4/8), Andri predicts natural gas prices will move in the range of US $ 2.75-US $ 2.83 per mmbtu. Meanwhile, the next week, the price will move in the range of US $ 2.71-US $ 2.90 per mmbtu.
IN INDONESIA
Meski Membaik, Harga Gas Alam Masih Rentan Turun
Harga gas alam berhasil menguat setelah awal pekan ini menyentuh level terendah sejak Mei 2016. Namun gas alam masih dibayangi sentimen negatif karena isu pasokan dan cuaca yang kurang mendukung.
Kamis (3/8) pukul 20.41 WIB memperlihatkan, harga gas alam di New York Mercantile Exchange pengiriman September 2017 dijual US$ 2,83 per mmbtu, naik 0,67% dibandingkan dengan hari sebelumnya. Namun sepekan terakhir, harga terpangkas 3,77%.
Andri Hardianto, analis Asia Tradepoint Futures, melihat, saat ini harga gas alam sedang berada dalam posisi sideways. Walau harga berangsur-angsur membaik, tetapi pasar masih wait and see menanti rilis data stok gas alam Amerika Serikat (AS).
Pelaku pasar memprediksikan jumlah stok gas alam AS pekan lalu versi Energy Information Administration (EIA) naik dari 17 miliar kaki kubik menjadi 23 miliar kaki kubik.
"Jika sesuai ekspektasi, bisa jadi harga gas alam akan kembali tertekan," terang Andri, Kamis (3/8).
Selain faktor pasokan, kondisi cuaca musim panas yang tidak sepanas biasanya di AS berpeluang menekan permintaan. Persoalan cuaca ini menjadi penting karena 50% konsumsi gas alam di AS berasal dari aktivitas rumah tangga. Jika cuaca tidak sepanas biasanya, maka pemakaian alat pendingin akan berkurang.
Tidak hanya AS, sentimen negatif juga datang dari Jepang. Setelah sempat menambah permintaan gas alam karena ada kebocoran reaktor nuklir beberapa waktu lalu, kini Negeri Matahari Terbit itu malah mengaktifkan kembali pembangkit listrik tenaga nuklirnya, sehingga permintaan gas alam kembali turun.
“Sampai akhir kuartal tiga nanti kemungkinan harga gas alam akan bergerak di kisaran US$ 2,60-US$ 2,70 per mmbtu," kata Andri. Walaupun saat ini pasokan gas alam dari Qatar sedang terganggu akibat sanksi udara yang diberlakukan Arab Saudi, tetapi hal itu tidak akan mempengaruhi pergerakan harga gas alam. Harga komoditas energi itu lebih dipengaruhi oleh kondisi pasokan dan permintaan AS.
Secara teknikal, saat ini harga gas alam bergerak diatas garis moving average (MA) 50, MA 100 dan MA 200. Kemudian Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) berada di area negatif 0,04. lndikator relative strength index (RSI) bergerak naik di level 38. Lalu indikator stochastic bergerak naik ke level 28,5 Meski kondisi fundamental memberi sinyal koreksi, tetapi secara teknikal seluruh indikator mengisyaratkan penguatan harga.
Pada Jumat (4/8) ini, Andri memprediksi harga gas alam akan bergerak pada kisaran US$ 2,75-US$ 2,83 per mmbtu. Sementara sepekan berikutnya, harga akan bergerak pada kisaran US$ 2,71-US$ 2,90 per mmbtu.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-25, Friday, August 4, 2017
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