Natural gas prices are heating up in the short term along with the prospect of growing US and Chinese consumption. On Tuesday's trading at 8:15 pm, the price of natural gas for September contracts rose 0.24 points or 0.86 percent to US $ 2.825 per million British thermal unit (MMBtu).
However, during the year, prices fell 24.19%. Senior vice president of energy trading at FC Stone Latin America LLC Tom Saal says the natural gas market is sensitive to climate change in the United States. In fact, changes in weather projection could potentially trigger a price rally.
The weather forecasting agency MDA Weather Services reports temperatures in the central and eastern parts of the US tend to warm on August 17-21, 2017. Louis is predicted to be the hottest region because temperatures can reach 93 degrees Fahrenheit (34 degrees Celsius).
"Warming weather also adds to the prospect of demand for natural gas," he said as quoted by Bloomberg, Tuesday (8/8).
Meanwhile, based on U.S. data Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the week ended Friday (28/7) natural gas stocks rose 959 billion cubic feet to 3.01 trillion cubic feet. However, that figure is down 8.5% of the volume
Inventory in early 2017.
The EIA report also shows the current supply surplus is likely to be normal to 3% level compared to March 2017 at 21%. That is, Uncle Sam experienced significant demand growth. Chief executive officer and portfolio manager of Geosol Capital LLC Alex Elsik conveyed, the growth of natural gas demand in the US not only occur in hot weather, but will also peak before winter.
"As the supply narrows, there will be an increase in exports and the need for power generation. Stronger gas consumption could bring the price to US $ 4 per MMBtu," he said.
The last time the natural gas reached the level of US $ 4 per MMBtu is in 2014. Although difficult, the opportunity is still there as long as there is a boost from weather factors that spur demand.
The current low price of natural gas is also fueling purchases ahead of winter. The United States is quite reliant on the commodity because it contributes about 30% of the total fuel for power generation.
"Winter risks can trigger bullish on natural gas. The lower the price, the more demand in the market, "he said.
President of Schork Group Inc., Stephen Schork said natural gas prices could heat up significantly if there is support from the weather, especially in winter. It is estimated that the winter will begin in the third week of November 2017. Meanwhile, the World Bank predicts that the average price of natural gas 2017 will increase by 15% year on year (yoy) to US $ 3 per MMBtu from US $ 2.49 MMBtu. Influential sentiments are capacity building in the US and Australia, and heating up oil prices.
IN INDONESIA
Permintaan Gas Alam GAS dan China Menanjak
Harga gas alam memanas dalam jangka pendek seiring dengan prospek bertumbuhnya konsumsi Amerika Serikat dan China. Pada perdagangan Selasa (8/8) pukul 16.15 WIB, harga gas alam untuk kontrak September 2017 meningkat 0,24 poin atau 0,86% menuju US$2,825 per million british thermal unit (MMBtu).
Namun, sepanjang tahun berjalan, harga turun 24,19%. Senior vice president of energy trading at FC Stone Latin America LLC Tom Saal menuturkan pasar gas alam sensitif terhadap pergantian cuaca di Amerika Serikat. Bahkan, perubahan proyeksi cuaca berpotensi memicu reli harga.
Lembaga perkiraan cuaca MDA Weather Services melaporkan suhu di wilayah tengah dan timur AS cenderung menghangat pada 17-21 Agustus 2017. Kota St. Louis diprediksi menjadi wilayah paling panas karena suhu bisa mencapai 93 derajat fahrenheit (34 derajat celcius).
“Menghangatnya cuaca turut menambah prospek permintaan terhadap gas alam,” tuturnya seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg,
Selasa (8/8).
Sementara itu, berdasarkan data U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), dalam sepekan yang berakhir Jumat (28/7) stok gas alam naik 959 miliar kaki kubik menjadi 3,01 triliun kaki kubik. Namun, angka tersebut turun 8,5% dari volume persediaan pada awal 2017.
Laporan EIA juga menunjukkan surplus pasokan saat ini cenderung normal ke level 3% dibandingkan dengan Maret 2017 di posisi 21%. Artinya, Paman Sam mengalami pertumbuhan permintaan yang signifikan. Chief executive officer and portfolio manager Geosol Capital LLC Alex Elsik menyampaikan, petumbuhan permintaan gas alam di AS tidak hanya terjadi saat cuaca panas, tetapi juga akan memuncak menjelang musim dingin.
"Ketika pasokan mengecil, akan terjadi kenaikan ekspor dan kebutuhan untuk pembangkit listrik Konsumsi gas alam yang menguat bisa membawa harga menuju US$ 4 per MMBtu,” tuturnya.
Terakhir kali gas alam mencapai level US$ 4 per MMBtu ialah pada 2014. Meskipun sulit, peluang tersebut masih ada asalkan ada dorongan dari faktor cuaca yang memacu permintaan.
Rendahnya harga gas alam saat ini juga memicu pembelian menjelang musim dingin. Amerika Serikat cukup mengandalkan komoditas tersebut karena berkontribusi sekitar 30% terhadap total bahan bakar untuk pembangkit listrik.
“Risiko musim dingin dapat memicu bullish terhadap gas alam. Semakin rendah harga, akan semakin banyak permintaan di pasar,” ujarnya.
President of Schork Group Inc., Stephen Schork mengatakan harga gas alam bisa memanas signifikan jika ada dukungan dari cuaca, terutama pada musim dingin. Diperkirakan musim dingin akan berlangsung mulai pekan ketiga November 2017. Sementara itu, Bank Dunia memprediksi rerata harga gas alam 2017 meningkat 15% year on year (yoy) menjadi US$3 per MMBtu dari sebelumnya US$2,49 MMBtu. Sentimen yang memengaruhi ialah peningkatan kapasitas di AS dan Australia, serta memanasnya harga minyak.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-9, Wednesday, August 9, 2017
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