Although heating up to US $ 50 per barrel, oil prices are still vulnerable to a correction in line with the projected increase in the production of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in July 2017. Even analysts revised down the 2017 oil price projection target.
On Tuesday's trading at 17.05 GMT, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil contracted in September 2017 rose 0.16% or 0.08 points to US $ 50.2S per barrel. The October 2017 Brent oil price fell 0.04% or -0.02 points to US $ 52.71 per barrel.
CMC Markets analyst Ric Spooner said crude prices are heating up in the near future due to the projected loss of weekly US inventories. Suevei Bloomberg said stockpiles of oil inventories ended Friday at 3.3 million barrels. Official data from U.S. data The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released Wednesday (2/8). Throughout June 2017, US stocks have fallen 26 million barrels. The recent decline in US inventory levels is quite constructive and the market responds, "he said as quoted by Bloomberg on Tuesday (1/8).
Nevertheless, now the price rally has moved into an area at risk of correction. Meanwhile, the volume of shale oil supply will be one key to the sustainability of price growth.
According to him, oil prices are also supported by OPEC's plan to reduce export volume. Saudi Arabia will reduce oil shipments abroad by 1 million barrels to about 6.6 million barrels starting in August 2017. Nigeria also reduced exports when it reached production capacity of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd). In June 2017, the country pumped 1.75 million bpd of oil.
Spooner added that the market is also concerned with the agenda of the discovery of several OPEC and non-OPEC countries in the United Arab Emirates on 7-8 August 2017. Both sides will discuss the commitment to reduce production. OPEC and non-OPEC earlier agreed to cut production by 1.8 million bpd in January 2017-March 2018. However, the new supply-reduction volume has yet to reach the 100% target.
According to a Reuters survey involving a number of oil companies and consultants, OPEC production volume actually increased to 33 million bpd last month which was the highest level in 2017. This figure exceeded the target organizations that seek new supply to the level of 32.5 million bpd, in accordance with the agreement with Non-OPEC.
The largest increase in OPEC production comes from Libya that spur supply to exceed 1 million bpd, compared with the previous month at 840,000 bpd. Other members such as Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Gabon and Ecuador are also pumping more oil.
REVISED DOWN
In another Reuters survey involving 33 analysts and economists, the average projected WTI oil price in 2017 was revised to US $ 0.08 per barrel and Brent headed for US $ 52.4S per barrel. This figure is down from the projection in June 2017 amounting to US $ 51.92 per barrel and U $ 53.96 per barrel respectively.
Interfu's senior energy analyst Global Gas Analytics analyst Abhishek Kimiar said the slump in analysts' projections was due to concerns about trimming OPEC and non-OPEC oil production cuts. When production peaked in July 2017, market attitudes were increasingly skeptical of the agreement.
Citing data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC production cuts in June 2017 fell to 78 percent from 95 percent the previous month. Countries that do the most cuts are Saudi Arabia, Angola, and Kuwait.
Negative sentiment also came from Ecuador withdrawing from production cuts. However, the impact on the market is not large enough. Thomson Reuters Oil Research and Forecast analyst Giorgios Beleris said negative sentiment from Ecuador was quickly tackled as Saudi Arabia pledged to cut exports. Other countries such as Nigeria and Kuwait are also ready to reduce the volume of overseas shipments of oil.
IN INDONESIA
Proyeksi Harga Minyak Dipangkas
Meski kembali memanas ke level US$ 50 per barel, harga minyak masih rentan koreksi seiring dengan proyeksi meningkatnya produksi Organization ot the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pada Juli 2017. Bahkan kalangan analis merevisi turun target proyeksi harga minyak 2017.
Pada perdagangan Selasa (1/8) pukul 17.05 WIB, harga minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) kontrak September 2017 naik 0,16% atau 0,08 poin menuju US$50,2S per barel. Adapun harga minyak Brent kontrak Oktober 2017 turun 0.04% atau -0,02 poin menjadi US$52,71 per barel.
Analis CMC Markets Ric Spooner menyampaikan harga minyak mentah memanas dalam waktu dekat akibat proyeksi berkurangnya persediaan mingguan Amerika Serikat. Suevei Bloomberg mengungkapkan persediaan stok minyak yang berakhir Jumat (28/7) turun 3,3 juta barel. Data resmi dari data U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) akan dirilis Rabu (2/8).
Sepanjang Juni 2017, stok AS sudah turun 26 juta barel. Tingkat penurunan persediaan AS akhir-akhir ini cukup konstruktif dan pasar merespons itu,” paparnya seperti dikutip dan Bloomberg, Selasa (1/8).
Namun demikian, kini reli harga sudah bergerak ke area yang berisiko mengalami koreksi. Adapun, volume pasokan minyak shale akan menjadi salah satu kunci keberlanjutan pertumbuhan harga.
Menurutnya, harga minyak juga ditopang rencana OPEC mengurangi volume ekspor. Arab Saudi akan mengurangi pengapalan minyak ke luar negeri sebesar 1 juta barel menjadi sekitar 6.6 juta barel mulai Agustus 2017. Nigeria turut mengurangi ekspor ketika sudah mencapai kapasitas produksi sebesar 1,8 juta barel per hari (bph). Adapun pada Juni 2017, negara tersebut memompa minyak sejumlah 1,75 juta bph.
Spooner menambahkan, pasar juga memperhatikan agenda penemuan beberapa negara OPEC dan non-OPEC di Uni Emirat Arab pada 7-8 Agustus 2017. Kedua pihak akan membahas komitmen untuk mengurangi produksi. OPEC dan non-OPEC sebelumnya sepakat memangkas produksi sebesar 1,8 juta bph pada Januari 2017-Maret 2018. Namun, volume pengurangan suplai baru belum mencapai target 100%.
Menurut survei Reuters yang melibatkan sejumlah perusahaan minyak dan konsultan, volume produksi OPEC justru meningkat menjadi 33 juta bph pada bulan lalu yang menjadi level tertinggi sepanjang 2017. Angka ini melampaui target organisasi yang mengupayakan suplai baru ke level 32,5 juta bph, sesuai kesepakatan dengan non-OPEC.
Kenaikan produksi OPEC paling besar berasal dari Libya yang memacu suplai hingga melampaui 1 juta bph, dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya di kisaran 840.000 bph. Anggota lain seperti Irak, Uni Emirat Arab, Gabon, dan Ekuador juga memompa lebih banyak minyak.
REVISI TURUN
Dalam survei Reuters lainnya yang melibatkan 33 analis dan ekonom, proyeksi rerata harga minyak WTI pada 2017 direvisi menjadi US$ 0,08 per barel dan Brent menuju US$ 52,4S per barel. Angka ini turun dari proyeksi pada Juni 2017 masing-masing senilai US$ 51,92 per barel dan U$ 53,96 per barel.
Senior energy analyst Interfax Energy’s Global Gas Analytics Abhishek Kimiar menyampaikan, merosotnya proyeksi analis disebabkan kekhawatiran menganai kepatuhan pemangkasan produksi minyak OPEC dan non-OPEC. Ketika produksi memuncak pada Juli 2017, sikap pasar semakin skeptis dengan perjanjian tersebut.
Mengutip data International Energy Agency (IEA), kepatuhan pemangkasan produksi OPEC pada Juni 2017 turun menjadi 78% dari bulan sebelumnya sebesar 95%. Negara yang melakukan pemangkasan paling banyak ialah Arab Saudi, Angola, dan Kuwait.
Sentimen negatif juga datang dari Ekuador yang menarik diri dari perjanjian pemangkasan produksi. Namun, dampaknya terhadap pasar tidak cukup besar. Analis Thomson Reuters Oil Research and Forecast Giorgios Beleris mengatakan sentimen negatif dari Ekuador cepat tertanggulangi karena Arab Saudi berjanji memangkas ekspor. Negara lain seperti Nigeria dan Kuwait juga siap mengurangi volume pengapalan minyak ke luar negeri.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Wednesday, August 2, 2017
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