Although price movements began to slow, oil prices still tend to strengthen. Analysts even forecast the price could return to penetrate the level of US $ 50 per barrel. Tuesday (8/8), at 18.30 Western Indonesia Time, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price contract for September 2017 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 028% to US $ 49.53 per barrel.
Within a week, oil prices have shot 0.75%. The cause of this increase is Saudi Arabia's decision to cut oil sales to Asia for September. Reportedly, Saudi Arabian Oil Co. Reducing oil production restrictions by OPEC is considered a failure.
An additional injection for oil price increases after US crude oil reserves (US) are also expected to fall. Asia Tradepoint Futures analyst Deddy Yusuf Siregar said the US oil reserves for the week ending August 4, 2017 are predicted to fall by about 2.6 million barrels.
"This condition gives a signal to market players that maybe the US began to reduce production," he said on Tuesday (8/8).
Therefore, Deddy is optimistic that by the end of the third quarter WTI oil price can move again in the range of US $ 48-US $ 50 per barrel. Pressed negative catalyst but negative catalyst also still lurking oil prices. One of them is the re-production of the largest oil refinery in Libya, the Sharara block. This makes Libyan oil production above 1 million barrels per day.
Despite OPEC members, Libya and Nigeria have been given no leeway not to participate in a production-limited deal of 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018. Pressure for oil prices increased after demand for oil imports in China in July fell 6.9% From the previous month. This figure is the biggest slowdown since January 2017. Moreover, China is the world's largest crude consumer. This can depress oil prices.
"China's import data also fell below market expectations and made the market pessimistic," said Faisyal, Research & Analyst Monex Investindo Futures.
Therefore, Faisyal predicts, WTI oil price today will move in the range of US $ 48.50-US $ -49, 65 per barrel. Meanwhile, according to Deddy's analysis, WTI oil prices will move in the range of US $ 48.50-US $ 50.39 per barrel in the next week.
Technically, the current oil price is rolling above the line of MA 50 and MA 100, but it is still stuck at the 200 MA. This indicates in the long term the strengthening has not been confirmed. The MACD indicator is in the positive area. Then the RSI is at 60 and stochastic at the 58 level. Most indicators indicate a bullish opportunity.
IN INDONESIA
Arab Saudi Menyulut Naik Harga Minyak
Meski pergerakan harganya mulai melambat, harga minyak masih cenderung menguat. Para analis bahkan memperkirakan harganya bisa kembali menembus level US$ 50 per barel. Selasa (8/8), per pukul 18.30 WIB, harga minyak west Texas Intermediate (WTI) kontrak pengiriman September 2017 di New York Mercantile Exchange naik 028% ke level US$ 49,53 per barel.
Dalam sepekan, harga minyak sudah melesat 0,75%. Penyebab kenaikan ini adalah keputusan Arab Saudi memangkas penjualan minyak ke Asia untuk September. Kabarnya, Saudi Arabian Oil Co. melakukan pengurangan pembatasan produksi minyak oleh OPEC dinilai gagal.
Suntikan tambahan bagi harga minyak bertambah setelah cadangan produksi minyak mentah Amerika Serikat (AS) juga diperkirakan turun. Analis Asia Tradepoint Futures Deddy Yusuf Siregar mengatakan, cadangan minyak AS untuk pekan yang berakhir 4 Agustus 2017 diprediksi turun sekitar 2,6 juta barel.
“Kondisi ini memberikan sinyal pada pelaku pasar bahwa mungkin AS mulai mengurangi produksinya,” ungkap dia, Selasa (8/8).
Karena itu, Deddy optimistis hingga akhir kuartal tiga nanti harga minyak WTI bisa kembali bergerak di rentang US$ 48-US$ 50 per barel. Terdesak katalis negatif namun katalis negatif juga masih mengintai harga minyak. Salah satunya adalah kembali berproduksinya kilang minyak terbesar di Libia, yakni blok Sharara. Hal ini membuat produksi minyak Libia berada di atas 1 juta barel per hari.
Walau termasuk anggota OPEC, namun Libia dan Nigeria memang mendapat kelonggaran untuk tidak ikut serta dalam kesepakatan pembatasan produksi sebesar 1,8 juta barel per hari hingga Maret 2018. Tekanan bagi harga minyak bertambah setelah permintaan impor minyak di China di Juli turun 6,9% daripda bulan sebelumnya. Angka ini merupakan perlambatan terbesar sejak Januari 2017. Terlebih lagi, China merupakan konsumen minyak mentah terbesar di dunia. Hal ini dapat menekan harga minyak.
"Data impor China juga turun di bawah ekspektasi pasar dan membuat pasar pesimis," jelas Faisyal, Research & Analyst Monex Investindo Futures.
Karena itu, Faisyal memprediksi, harga minyak WTI hari ini akan bergerak di kisaran US$ 48,50-US$-49;65 per barel. Sementara menurut analisa Deddy, harga minyak WTI akan bergerak di rentang US$ 48,50-US$ 50,39 per barel dalam sepekan ke depan.
Secara teknikal, harga minyak saat ini bergulir di atas garis MA 50 dan MA 100, tetapi masih tertahan di MA 200. Ini mengindikasikan dalam jangka panjang penguatan belum terkonfirmasi. Indikator MACD berada di area positif. Kemudian RSI berada level 60 dan stochastic di level 58. Sebagian besar indikator mengindikasikan peluang penguatan harga.
Kontan, Page-11, Wednesday, August 9, 2017
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