West Texas intermediate (WTI) crude oil is moving in a positive trend. Although it had corrected after reaching its highest level since May 2017, now energy commodities are back up.
As of 6:30 pm yesterday, WTI oil futures for November delivery climbed 0.1396 to $ 51.95 a barrel. Even in the middle of the trading session had touched US $ 52.28 per barrel. Oil prices rose as market participants believe the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Cotuitries (OPEC) will continue its production cuts program.
Monex Investindo Futures analyst Putu Agus Pransuamitra said there was an expectation of OPEC's production cuts program to be extended, although there has been no official decision yet. With this price increase, analysts say OPEC will be able to meet the set price target. The organization of this oil-producing country set a target price of oil at US $ 55 per barrel.
However, according to Asia Tradepoint Futures analyst Deddy Yusuf Siregar, if until the end of the year target oil prices have been reached, OPEC will re-regulate the production level. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak once said, if prices are as expected, then production cuts will end in March 2018.
Supply disruption in Iraq also contributed to positive sentiment. On Monday (25/9), Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan threatened to cut the Kurdish pipeline supplying world oil. In addition, Deddy said oil prices bounced on the back of data sentiment The American Petroleum Institute (API), on Tuesday (26/9). The data shows, US crude oil stock (US) down.
"The decline is slim, around 761,000 barrels, but this reinforces Baker Hughes's previous data that calls for drilling activity in America to decline," said Deddy, Wednesday (27/9).
In the week ending September 22, Baker Hughes released the number of active drilling rigs reduced by five to 744 from the previous week. Putu said the strengthening of oil prices could still continue if oil stock data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) also showed a decline. So far, US oil stockpiles in the week ending September 22, 2017 is estimated to only rise about 2.9 million barrels. Whereas in the previous week the increase reached 4.6 million barrels.
Technically, Putu sees oil prices moving above the moving average (MA) 50, MA 100 and MA 200. This indicates oil prices are still strong. MACD rose to the level of 0.9, But RSI dropped to 83 and the stochastic level 87 indicates potential weakness.
Today Deddy predicts oil price will move between US $ 51.70-USS 52.50 per barrel. Putu's prediction, oil prices range from US $ 50.80 - US $ 53.00 today and between US $ 50.80-US $ 53.60 per barrel at the end of the third quarter.
IN INDONESIA
Harga Minyak Naik Tembus US$ 52
Minyak mentah jenis west Texas intermediate (WTI) tengah bergerak dalam tren positif. Meski sempat terkoreksi setelah mencapai level tertingginya sejak Mei 2017, kini komoditas energi tersebut kembali naik.
Per pukul 18.30 WIB kemarin, harga minyak WTI kontrak pengiriman November 2017 menguat 0,1396 menjadi US$ 51,95 per barel. Bahkan di tengah sesi perdagangan harganya sempat menyentuh US$ 52,28 per barel. Harga minyak naik lantaran pelaku pasar yakin Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Cotuitries (OPEC) bakal melanjutkan program pemangkasan produksi.
Analis Monex Investindo Futures Putu Agus Pransuamitra menyebut, ada ekspektasi program pemangkasan produksi oleh OPEC akan diperpanjang, meski kini belum ada keputusan resmi. Dengan penguatan harga ini, analis menilai OPEC akan mampu memenuhi target harga yang ditetapkan. Organisasi negara penghasil minyak ini mematok target harga minyak US$ 55 per barel.
Hanya saja, menurut analis Asia Tradepoint Futures Deddy Yusuf Siregar, jika sampai akhir tahun target harga minyak sudah tercapai, OPEC akan kembali mengatur tingkat produksi. Menteri Energi Rusia Alexander Novak pernah mengatakan, jika harga sudah sesuai harapan, maka pemangkasan produksi akan diakhiri pada Maret 2018.
Gangguan pasokan di lrak juga turut memberi sentimen positif. Pada Senin (25/9) lalu, Presiden Turki Tayyip Erdogan mengancam akan memotong pipa Kurdi yang memasok minyak dunia. Selain itu, Deddy menyebut harga minyak kembali melambung didorong sentimen rilis data The American Petroleum Institute (API), pada Selasa (26/9). Data tersebut menunjukkan, stok minyak mentah Amerika Serikat (AS) turun.
"Penurunannya memang tipis, sekitar 761.000 barel, tapi ini semakin mengokohkan data Baker Hughes sebelumnya yang menyebut aktivitas pengeboran di Amerika menurun," papar Deddy, Rabu (27/9).
Pada pekan yang berakhir 22 September kemarin, Baker Hughes merilis jumlah rig pengeboran aktif berkurang lima menjadi 744 buah dari pekan sebelumnya. Putu mengatakan, penguatan harga minyak masih bisa berlanjut jika data stok minyak yang dirilis US Energy Information Administration (EIA) juga menunjukkan penurunan. Sejauh ini stok minyak AS pada pekan yang berakhir 22 September 2017 diperkirakan hanya naik sekitar 2,9 juta barel. Padahal di pekan sebelumnya kenaikan mencapai 4,6 juta barel.
Secara teknikal, Putu melihat harga minyak bergerak di atas moving average (MA) 50, MA 100 dan MA 200. Hal ini mengindikasikan harga minyak masih menguat. MACD naik ke level 0,9, Tapi RSI turun ke level 83 dan stochastic level 87 menunjukkan potensi pelemahan.
Hari ini Deddy memprediksi harga minyak akan bergerak antara US$ 51,70-USS 52,50 per barel. Prediksi Putu, harga minyak berkisar di US$ 50,80 - US$ 53,00 hari ini dan antara US$ 50,80-US$ 53,60 per barel di akhir kuartal tiga.
Kontan, Page-11, Thursday, Sept 28, 2017
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