The OPEC meeting on Friday (22/9) which provides some of the latest important information, it feels sweet to market participants, although not yet meet expectations.
On Friday's trade (22/9), WTI oil price of November 2017 contract rose 0.11 points or 0.22% to US $ 50.66 per barrel. This is the highest level since May 24, 2017 at US $ 51.36 per barrel. The Brent oil contract in November 2017 in the same time increased 0.43 points or 0.76% to US $ 56.86 per barrel. This figure shows the highest level since January 6, 2017 at a price of US $ 57.10 per barrel.
President of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. Michael Lynch said crude oil prices closed slightly higher after the discovery of OPEC raised optimism of market participants. The most anticipated information is the issue surrounding production cuts.
OPEC and other crude producers, often referred to as non-OPEC, agreed to cut new supplies by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2017-March 2018. The move aims to trim abundant global supplies.
In its official broadcast, OPEC announced a number of important results in a meeting on Friday (22/9). First, Libya, Nigeria, and Iraq reaffirmed their commitment to participate in the production cuts agreement.
In fact, Libya and Nigeria freed from the agreement because it needs to restore the country's economy that is hampered by militant attacks. Second, the compliance of OPEC and non-OPEC output cuts in August 2017 reached 116%, or exceeded the agreement of 1.8 million bpd. This is the largest supply cut since the start of the agreement.
Third, the crude oil stock at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in August 2017 has reached 170 million barrels, and January 2017 of 340 million barrels. The downward trend in inventories is expected to continue in the future. Fourth, all options to balance the market are still open. This spawned expectations of extending the production cutting period ending in March 2018.
NOT CLEAR
Related to the outcome of the OPEC meeting, Lynch argues, the organization did deliver a number of important messages. However, the market has not received a clear decision on the extension or addition of production cuts.
The news from OPEC earlier seemed rather bland, but lately tasteless sentiments were good. People feel as if the market is back in balance, "he said as quoted and Bloomberg, Saturday (23/9).
Commodity Fund Manager Lyche Capital Advisors Tariq Zahir said oil prices were on track for the third consecutive monthly rise as OPEC and non-OPEC output cuts signaled global inventories. The next important event of concern is the meeting of OPEC member ministers on November 30, 2017.
"Oil prices are still likely to be depressed until the [November 30] meeting. Investors seem to want more production cuts instead of extending their periods, "he explained.
Central Capital Furures analyst Wahyu T. Laksono said the WTI price has indeed rebounded strongly since late August 2017. Commodity trends improved as the dollar weakened before the FOMC meeting Wednesday gave Hawkis sentiment.
And the fundamental side, the OPEC agreement is considered successful enough to control supply in the global market. A week ago. prices rose by 2.2% as they awaited the outcome of the meeting. The main information that arouses the optimism of market participants is a surge in production cuts by 116% last month, compared with 94% compliance in July 2017.
According to him, the space for bullish in the range of US $ 50 - US $ 5S per barrel is still possible. However, the area provides a strong enough correction pressure. This week, prices are likely to reach new highs this year at US $ 54.45 per barrel, reached on February 23, 2017. New High's failure could trigger a correction.
"If next week [this week] fails the new high there could be a reversal, the potential for the nearest correction to the US $ 47.50 area," he said.
Until the end of 2017 the price still has the potential to reach the highest level of US $ 55 per barrel. However, if the resale action dominated the price will return to the range of US $ 45-US $ 50 per barrel. Break below that area can deliver the price to the lowest position of US $ 42 per barrel.
Senior Energy Analyst International Energy Agency (IEA) Kristine Petrosyan said the global oil market has been oversupplied in the last 3 years. The reduction of OPEC and non-OPEC production this year has not been enough to overcome the surplus, as the demand for refining is relatively low.
IN INDONESIA
Sentimen Hambar pun Bagus
Rapat OPEC pada Jumat (22/9) yang memberikan sejumlah informasi penting terbaru, memang terasa manis bagi pelaku pasar, meskipun belum memenuhi ekspektasi.
Pada perdagangan Jumat (22/9), harga minyak WTI kontrak November 2017 naik 0,11 poin atau 0,22% menuju US$ 50,66 per barel. lni merupakan level tertinggi sejak 24 Mei 2017 di posisi US$ 51,36 per barel. Adapun minyak Brent kontrak November 2017 dalam waktu yang sama meningkat 0,43 poin atau 0,76% menjadi US$ 56,86 per barel. Angka tersebut menunjukkan level tertinggi sejak 6 Januari 2017 di harga US$ 57,10 per barel.
Presiden Strategic Energy & Economic Research lnc. Michael Lynch menuturkan, harga minyak mentah ditutup menguat tipis setelah penemuan OPEC membangkitkan optimisme pelaku pasar. Informasi yang paling dinantikan ialah isu seputar pemangkasan produksi.
Seperti diketahui, OPEC dan sejumlah negara produsen minyak mentah lainnya yang kerap disebut sebagai non-OPEC, setuju memangkas pasokan baru sebesar 1,8 juta barel per hari (bph) pada Januari 2017-Maret 2018. Langkah ini bertujuan memangkas persediaan global yang berlimpah.
Dalam siaran resminya, OPEC mengumumkan sejumlah hasil penting dalam rapat pada Jumat (22/9). Pertama, Libya, Nigeria, dan lrak menegaskan kembali komitmen mereka untuk berpartisipasi dalam perjanjian pemangkasan produksi.
Padahal, Libya dan Nigeria dibebaskan dari kesepakatan karena perlu memulihkan perekonomian negara yang terhambat oleh serangan militan. Kedua, kepatuhan pemangkasan produksi OPEC dan non-OPEC pada Agustus 2017 mencapai 116%, atau melampaui kesepakatan sejumlah 1,8 juta bph. lni merupakan pemangkasan pasokan terbesar sejak dimulainya perjanjian.
Ketiga, stok minyak mentah di Organisasi untuk Kerjasama Ekonomi dan Pembangunan (OECD) pada Agustus 2017 sudah mencapai 170 juta barel, dan Januari 2017 sebesar 340 juta barel. Tren penurunan persediaan diperkirakan berlanjut ke depannya. Keempat, semua opsi untuk menyeimbangkan pasar masih terbuka. Hal ini menumbuhkan ekspektasi memperpanjang periode pemangkasan produksi yang berakhir pada Maret 2018.
BELUM JELAS
Terkait hasil rapat OPEC, Lynch berpendapat, organisasi itu memang menyampaikan sejumlah pesan penting. Namun, pasar belum mendapatkan keputusan jelas mengenai pemanjangan atau penambahan pemotongan produksi.
Berita dari OPEC sebelumnya terasa agak hambar, tetapi akhir-akhir ini sentimen hambar pun bagus. Orang-orang merasa seolah pasar kembali seimbang,” tuturnya seperti dikutip dan Bloomberg, Sabtu (23/9).
Commodity Fund Manager Lyche Capital Advisors Tariq Zahir mengungkapkan, harga minyak berada di jalur kenaikan bulanan ketiga berturut-turut karena sinyal pemangkasan produksi OPEC dan non-OPEC menekan persediaan global. Peristiwa penting yang menjadi perhatian berikutnya ialah pertemuan menteri-menteri negara anggota OPEC pada 30 November 2017.
“Harga minyak masih cenderung tertekan sampai pertemuan [30 November] tersebut. Investor tampaknya lebih menginginkan penambahan pemotongan produksi dibandingkan memperpanjang periodenya,” Jelasnya.
Analis Central Capital Furures Wahyu T. Laksono mengungkapkan, harga WTI memang mengalami rebound kuat sejak akhir Agustus 2017. Tren komoditas membaik karena pelemahan dolar AS, sebelum rapat FOMC Rabu (20/9) memberikan sentimen Hawkis.
Dan sisi fundamental, perjanjian OPEC dianggap cukup sukses mengendalikan pasokan di pasar global. Sepekan kemarin. harga naik- 2,2% karena menantikan hasil rapat. lnformasi utama yang membangkitkan optimisme pelaku pasar ialah lonjakan pemangkasan produksi hingga 116% pada bulan lalu, dibandingkan dengan 94% kepatuhan pada Juli 2017.
Menurutnya, ruang bagi bullish di kisaran US$ 50--US$ 5S per barel masih mungkin dicapai. Namun, area tersebut memberikan tekanan koreksi yang cukup kuat. Pada pekan ini, harga berpeluang mencapai level tertinggi baru tahun ini di posisi US$ 54.45 per barel, yang dicapai pada 23 Februari 2017. Kegagalan New High dapat memicu koreksi.
"Jika pekan depan [pekan ini] gagal new high bisa terjadi pembalikan. Potensi koreksi terdekat menuju area US$ 47,50,” ujarnya.
Sampai akhir 2017 harga masih berpotensi mencapai level tertinggi US$ 55 per barel. Namun, bila aksi jual kembali mendominasi harga akan kembali ke kisaran US$ 45-US$ 50 per barel. Break di bawah area tersebut dapat mengantarkan harga menuju posisi terendah US$42 per barel.
Senior Energy Analyst lnternational Energy Agency (IEA) Kristine Petrosyan menyampaikan, pasar minyak global mengalami kelebihan pasokan dalam 3 tahun terakhir. Pengurangan produksi OPEC dan non-OPEC pada tahun ini belum cukup mengatasi surplus, karena permintaan penyulingan relatif rendah.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Monday, Sept 25, 2017
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