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Tuesday, September 12, 2017

US Oil Production & Demand Drops



The threat of hurricane Irma and the decline in the number of rigs operating in the United States lowered WTI oil prices to as low as US $ 47.48 per barrel by the end of Friday's trading (8/9).

At the close of trade Friday (8/9), WTI oil price of the most active contract in October 2017 fell 1.61 points or 3.28% to US $ 47.48 per barrel. Meanwhile, the price of Brent oil the most active contract in November 2017 fell 0.71 points or 1.30% to US $ 53.78 per barrel.

Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity bank commander Eugen Weinberg, said oil prices fell drastically on concern US demand was dampened by Irma storm which is one of the strongest storms projected to hit the US in the near future.

The estimated Irma storm has wind speeds of up to 298 km per hour is the second major storm that threatens Uncle Sam in the past two weeks. Earlier, Harvey storms put the US close to 25% of oil refining capacity and cut about 8% of total oil production.

"Storms have a long-term impact on refinery and industry demand," Weinberg said

Senior Market Analyst for Price Futures Group Phil Flynn said market players were worried about the destruction of US crude demand for a storm. This sentiment makes market participants to sell. In addition to the demand for crude oil, gasoline consumption and 

other transportation fuels will falter due to hurricane Irma, especially in the southeastern United States. The reason, people are reluctant to travel.

On the production side, the number of oil rigs operating in the US has fallen in four consecutive weeks as the storm in some parts of Uncle Sam's territory.

Baker Hughes Incorporated said the number of US oil rigs in the week ending Friday (8/9) reduced three wells to 756 points of drilling. Despite the decline, the number is much higher than the 414 rigs last year, the number of rigs to be an early indicator of rising or falling US oil production volume. Decrease the rig in as Harvei and Irma storms drew oil drilling activity in the US Gulf and Eagle Ford in Texas down, giving rise to a negative sentiment on the prospect of adding US oil production in the short term.

The reason, team analysts Simmons & Co. estimates that the total number of oil and natural gas rigs in the US will continue to increase to 863 rigs by 2017, 932 rigs by 2018, and 1,078 rigs by 2019. Throughout 2017, oil and gas rigs total only 855 wells. The year before, the number of rigs was at the level of 509 wells, down from 2015 by 978 rigs.

Despite announcing production cuts due to the storm, exploration and production companies (E & P) are still planning to spend large capital expenditures. Financial services analyst Cowen & Co said the average E & P company's capital expenditure rose 49% year on year (yoy) in 2017.

As oil drilling increases, U.S. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said US oil production would reach 9.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2017, up 5.62% from 8.9 million bpd in 2016. Next year, production volume will reach record highs , ie 9.9 million bpd.

Natixis estimates that excess supply that overshadow the market to make oil prices tend to be depressed. WTI prices at the end of third and fourth quarter of 2017 tend to stagnate at the level of US $ 47 per barrel, so the average price during this year is only US $ 49 per barrel.

Throughout 2017, the global oil market is estimated to have a surplus of 190,000 bpd. This volume tends to decline because in the quarter I / 201 7 surplus levels reached 970,000 bpd.

IN INDONESIA

Produksi & Permintaan Minyak AS Merosot


     Ancaman badai Irma dan merosotnya jumlah rig yang beroperasi di Amerika Serikat menurunkan harga minyak WTI ke level US$ 47,48 per barel pada akhir perdagangan Jumat (8/9).

Pada penutupan perdagangan Jumat (8/9), harga minyak WTI kontrak teraktif Oktober 2017 turun 1,61 poin atau 3,28% menuju US$ 47,48 per barel. Adapun, harga minyak Brent kontrak teraktif November 2017 turun 0,71 poin atau 1,30% menjadi US$ 53,78 per barel.

Kepala Riset Komoditas Commers bank Eugen Weinberg menuturkan, harga minyak turun drastis karena kekhawatiran menurunnya permintaan AS akibat terjadinya badai Irma yang merupakan salah satu badai paling kuat yang diproyeksi sudah melanda AS dalam waktu dekat ini.

Badai Irma yang diestimasi memiliki kecepatan angin hingga 298 km per jam merupakan badai besar kedua yang mengancam Paman Sam dalam dua pekan terakhir. Sebelumnya, badai Harvey membuat AS menutup sekitar 25 % kapasitas penyulingan minyak dan memangkas sekitar 8% total produksi minyak.

“Badai memiliki dampak yang panjang terhadap permintaan kilang dan industri,” tutur Weinberg

Senior Market Analyst Price Futures Group Phil Flynn menyampaikan, pelaku pasar mengkhawatirkan kehancuran permintaan minyak mentah AS akibat serangan badai. Sentimen ini membuat pelaku pasar melakukan aksi jual. Selain permintaan minyak mentah, konsumsi bensin dan bahan bakar transportasi lainnya akan goyah akibat badai Irma, terutama di wilayah tenggara AS. Pasalnya, masyarakat enggan untuk bepergian.

Di sisi produksi, jumlah rig minyak yang beroperasi di AS turun merosot dalam empat pekan berturut-turut seiring dengan berlangsungnya badai di sejumlah wilayah Paman Sam.
Seperti dikutip dari Reuters, Baker Hughes Incorporated menyebutkan jumlah rig minyak AS dalam sepekan yang berakhir Jumat (8/9) berkurang tiga sumur menjadi 756 titik pengeboran. Kendati berkurang, jumlah tersebut jauh lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan 414 rig pada tahun lalu, Jumlah rig menjadi indikator awal naik atau turunnya volume produksi minyak AS. 

   Penurunan rig disaat serangan badai Harvei dan Irma membuat aktivitas pengeboran minyak di Teluk AS dan Eagle Ford di Texas turun sehingga menimbulkan sentimen negatif terhadap prospek penambahan produksi minyak AS dalam jangka pendek.

Pasalnya, tim analis Simmons & Co. memperkirakan, jumlah total rig minyak dan gas alam di AS akan terus meningkat menjadi 863 rig pada 2017, 932 rig pada 2018, dan 1.078 rig pada 2019. Sepanjang 2017, total rig minyak dan gas hanya mencapai 855 sumur. Tahun Ialu, jumlah rig berada di level 509 sumur, turun dari 2015 sebanyak 978 rig.

Meskipun mengumumkan pemangkasan produksi akibat badai, perusahaan eksplorasi dan produksi (E&P) masih berencana mengeluarkan belanja modal yang besar. Laporan analis jasa keuangan Cowen & Co mengungkapkan, rerata belanja modal 64 perusahaan E&P naik 49% year on year (yoy) pada 2017.

Seiring bertambahnya instalasi pengeboran minyak, U.S. Energy information Administration (EIA) menyebutkan produksi minyak AS akan mencapai 9,4 juta barel per hari (bph) pada 2017 atau naik 5,62% dibandingkan dengan capaian 8,9 juta bph pada 2016. Tahun depan, volume produksi akan mencapai rekor tertinggi, yakni 9,9 juta bph.

Natixis memperkirakan berlebihnya pasokan yang membayangi pasar membuat harga minyak cenderung tertekan. Harga WTI pada akhir kuartal III dan IV 2017 cenderung stagnan di level US$ 47 per barel, sehingga rerata harga sepanjang Tahun ini hanya mencapai US$ 49 per barel.

Sepanjang 2017, pasar minyak global diperkirakan mengalami surplus sejumlah 190.000 bph. Volume ini cenderung menurun karena pada kuartal I /201 7 tingkat surplus mencapai 970.000 bph.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Monday, Sept 11, 2017

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