The average Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) in September was at US $ 52.47 per barrel, up from US $ 48.43 per barrel in the previous month. While ICP SLC rose from US $ 49.17 per barrel to US $ 53.17 per barrel in September.
The increase in ICP is in line with rising crude oil prices in world markets. In September, Dated Brent prices rose from US $ 51.64 per barrel to US $ 56.05 per barrel, Brent (ICE) increased from US $ 51.87 per barrel to US $ 55.51 per barrel, WTI soared from US $ 48.06 per barrel to US $ 49.88 per barrel, and OPEC basket rose drastically from US $ 49.6 per barrel to US $ 53.35 per barrel.
According to the Indonesian Oil Price Team, there are several factors that increase the price of oil in the international market. First, based on OPEC's publication last September, world crude oil demand rose 1.42 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to last month's publication. In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow 1.35 million bpd from previous month's report. This is reinforced by the decline in stock and supply of crude oil and its products.
"Based on OPEC's publication last month, world oil supply fell 410 thousand bpd compared to August to 96.75 million bpd. While non-OPEC supplies fell 320 thousand bpd to 57.68 million bpd, "said the Indonesian Oil Price Team in a written statement on Wednesday (4/10).
The decline in stocks of crude oil products recorded Energy Information Administration (EIA) takes place in the United States. The agency's report said the level of US distillate fuel oil and gasoline stocks during September fell compared to the previous month. US distillate fuel oil stocks are down 11.2 million barrels compared to August stocks. Furthermore, gasoline stock last month was 12.6 million barrel lower than August stock.
Not only that, Baker Hughes Incorporated's data and OPEC publications also report a reduction in the number of operating rigs. On September 8, the number of oil rigs dropped three units to 756 rigs. On the other hand, economic growth is revised upward.
"Based on OPEC's publication in September, the world economic growth in 2017 has been revised up from 3.4% to 3.5%," said the Indonesian Oil Price Team.
Particularly in the Asia Pacific region, there are two additional factors that boost the price of oil. First, based on OPEC publications last month, there was an increase in crude demand in China, India and South Korea.
"Later, the International Energy Agency (IEA) publication reported an increase in operating capacity of refineries in China and the operation of Petrochina and CNOOC's new refineries, "said the Indonesian Oil Price Team.
ICP has been on record for the third consecutive month since July. ICP recorded the lowest point in June at US $ 43.66 per barrel. Furthermore, ICP rose to US $ 45.48 per barrel in July, US $ 48.43 per barrel in August and reached US $ 52.47 per barrel.
During the initial six months, ICP continues to fluctuate. At the beginning of the year, ICP reached US $ 50 per barrel, at US $ 51.88 per barrel in January and US $ 52.5 per barrel in February. Then, ICP fell to US $ 48.71 per barrel in March, continuing to increase to US $ 49.56 per barrel in April. ICP fell back to US $ 47.09 per barrel in May and fell again to US $ 43.66 per barrel in June.
Based on the realization as of September, the average ICP was recorded at 48.86 per barrel. This figure has slightly exceeded the ICP assumption in the state budget of US $ 48 per barrel.
IN INDONESIA
ICP September Tembus US$ 52,47 Per Barel
Rata-rata harga minyak Indonesia (Indonesian Crude Price/ ICP) pada September lalu tercatat sebesar US$ 52,47 per barel, naik dari bulan sebelumnya US$ 48,43 per barel. Sementara ICP SLC naik dari US$ 49,17 per barel menjadi US$ 53,17 per barel pada September ini.
Peningkatan ICP ini sejalan dengan kenaikan harga minyak mentah di pasar dunia. Pada September lalu, harga Dated Brent naik dari US$ 51,64 per barel menjadi US$ 56,05 per barel, Brent (ICE) meningkat dari US$ 51,87 per barel menjadi US$ 55,51 per barel, WTI melejit dari US$ 48,06 per barel menjadi US$ 49,88 per barel, serta Basket OPEC naik drastis dari US$ 49,6 per barel menjadi US$ 53,35 per barel.
Menurut Tim Harga Minyak Indonesia, terdapat beberapa faktor yang menaikkan harga minyak di pasar internasional. Pertama, berdasarkan publikasi OPEC September lalu, permintaan minyak mentah dunia naik 1,42 juta barel per hari (bph) dibandingkan publikasi bulan lalu. Pada 2018, permintaan minyak dunia diperkirakan tumbuh 1,35 juta bph dari laporan bulan sebelumnya. Hal itu diperkuat dengan turunnya stok dan pasokan minyak mentah beserta produknya.
“Berdasarkan publikasi OPEC bulan lalu, pasokan minyak dunia turun 410 ribu bph dibandingkan dengan Agustus menjadi 96,75 juta bph. Sementara pasokan non-OPEC turun 320 ribu bph menjadi 57,68 juta bph,” kata Tim Harga Minyak Indonesia dalam keterangan tertulisnya, Rabu (4/10) .
Penurunan stok produk minyak mentah dicatat Energy Information Administration (EIA) terjadi di Amerika Serikat. Laporan lembaga itu menyebutkan tingkat stok distillate fuel oil dan gasoline Amerika Serikat selama September turun dibanding bulan sebelumnya. Stok distillate fuel oil Amerika Serikat turun 11,2 juta barel dibandingkan stok Agustus. Selanjutnya, stok gasoline bulan lalu lebih rendah 12,6 juta barel dibandingkan dengan stok Agustus.
Tidak hanya itu, data Baker Hughes Incorporated dan publikasi OPEC juga melaporkan pengurangan jumlah rig yang beroperasi. Pada 8 September, jumlah rig minyak turun tiga unit menjadi 756 rig. Di sisi lain, pertumbuhan ekonomi justru direvisi naik.
“Berdasarkan publikasi OPEC pada September, kondisi pertumbuhan ekonomis dunia 2017 telah direvisi naik dari 3,4% menjadi 3,5%,” ujar Tim Harga Minyak Indonesia.
Khusus di Kawasan Asia Pasifik, terdapat dua faktor tambahan yang menggenjot harga minyak. Pertama, berdasarkan publikasi OPEC bulan lalu, terjadi kenaikan permintaan minyak mentah di Tiongkok, India, dan Korea Selatan.
“Kemudian, publikasi International Energy Agency (IEA) melaporkan adanya peningkatan kapasitas operasi kilang-kilang di Tiongkok dan beroperasinya kilang baru Petrochina dan CNOOC,” tutur Tim Harga Minyak Indonesia.
ICP tercatat terus naik dalam tiga bulan berturut-turut sejak Juli laiu. ICP tercatat mencapai titik terendah pada Juni lalu pada angka US$ 43,66 per barel. Selanjumya, ICP naik menjadi US$ 45,48 per barel pada Juli, US$ 48,43 per barel pada Agustus dan mencapai US$ 52,47 per barel. Selama enam bulan awal, ICP terus berfluktuasi.
Di awal tahun, ICP sempat mencapai US$ 50 per barel, yakni US$ 51,88 per barel pada Januari dan US$ 52,5 per barel pada Februari. Kemudian, ICP turun menjadi US$ 48,71 per barel pada Maret, dilanjutkan peningkatan menjadi US$ 49,56 per barel pada April. ICP kembali turun menjadi US$ 47,09 per barel pada Mei dan turun lagi menjadi US$ 43,66 per barel pada Juni.
Berdasarkan realisasi hingga September ini, rata-rata ICP tercatat mencapai 48,86 per barel. Angka ini sudah sedikit melampaui asumsi ICP dalam APBN sebesar US$ 48 per barel.
Investor Daily, Page-9, Thursday, October 5, 2017
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