World crude oil prices are projected to reach US $ 70-US $ 75 per barrel in 2018 due to the geopolitical warming between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as the Petroleum State Plan to include its company on the New York Stock Exchange.
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia analyst Andy Wibowo Gunawan said in his research publication on Friday (24/11), the projection of crude oil prices in 2018 ranged from US $ 70-US75 per barrel, up and earlier estimates at the level of US $ 55-US $ 60 per barrel.
According to him, supply disruption becomes a positive catalyst that lifts oil prices higher than current trading. In particular, Andy explained, the potential conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran triggered an increase in oil prices in the near future.
This month the tensions are increasingly heating up because Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of supplying missiles to Houthi rebels in Yemen to fire missiles at the world's biggest crude producer.
In addition, King Salman's government ordered its citizens to leave Lebanon, given Iran has a major foothold in the Middle East through Hezbollah.
The inter-state conflict is allegedly disrupting global oil supplies as OPEC countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iran, account for 42.7 percent of the world's total production and save 47.7 percent of the world's total oil supply by 2016.
"The rough calculation of the potential supply losses if Saudi and Iran are at war, will reach 17 million barrels per day or 26% and total global oil exports," said Andy.
SIGN UP
Another driver of world oil prices is quite hot because Saudi Arabia plans to include its national oil and gas company on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) futures exchange.
"The Arab position would be better to negotiate with the US on the management of shale oil production that could trigger a rise in world oil prices," he said.
In trade recorded on Sunday, West Texas Intemlediate (WTI) oil prices rose 0.93 points, or 1.60 percent, to US $ 58.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Meanwhile, Brent oil prices rose 0.31 points, or 0.49%, to US $ 63.86 per barrel on London-based ICE Futures. As is known, during this negative rally of world oil price rally is the production of US shale oil is getting higher.
Based on U.S. data Energy Information Administration (EIA), US oil production in 2017 will increase 9.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2016 by 8.9 million bpd. Meanwhile, in 2018, US production will reach a record 10 million bpd.
Therefore, the successful negotiations on world oil inventories and oil prices are deemed to be achievable along with the seemingly good relationship between US President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia's King Salman.
In terms of demand, Mirae Asset's research reveals that global claims will continue to grow despite oil positions threatened by the development of electric vehicles (EVs) that are likely to trigger a reduction in global oil demand.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected global demand to grow to 99.1 million barrels per day by 2018, up 1.41 percent from this year's 97.7 million barrels per day. According to the IEA, daily oil consumption in the Asia Pacific region reached 34.6 million barrels per day by 2018, or 34.9 percent of global daily oil consumption.
Meanwhile, projected daily oil consumption in the United States reached 31.7 million barrels per day in 2018, or 32% of total world daily consumption. Hans van Cleff, ABN Amro Senior Energy Economist, said that in 2018 the market will be worried about the potential shortage of oil supply, which causes a price boost.
In addition, global oil demand will continue to rise in the coming years driven by economic growth in India and China.
"In 2018, there will be a surprise rally in WTI oil prices to reach US $ 70 barrels per day, while Brent oil is at US $ 75 barrel per day," said Cleef, adding that political tensions that are starting to get hot will have a bigger impact on oil prices. rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran that could potentially further decline in supply.
"With that condition, even oil prices in early 2019 could reach US $ 90 barrel per day," he said.
The above positive sentiments show the strengthening of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, in an effort to reduce global oil supplies to achieve the objectives of market equilibrium.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Friday his country is ready to support the expansion of agreements among oil producers in an effort to reduce global production. Russia will discuss details of a global deal extension on Nov. 30.
"However, the target of market rebalancing has not been achieved. Everyone supports the extension [extension of time], so the final target is reached. "
IN INDONESIA
Minyak Menuju ke Level US$75/Barel
Harga minyak mentah dunia diproyeksikan melaju hingga mencapai level US$70-US$75 per barel pada 2018 lantaran memanasnya geopolitik antara Arab Saudi dan Iran, juga Rencana Negeri minyak memasukkan perusahaannya di New York Stock Exchange.
Analis Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Andy Wibowo Gunawan mengatakan dalam publikasi risetnya Jumat (24/11), proyeksi harga minyak mentah pada 2018 berkisar pada US$70-US75 per barel, naik dan perkiraan sebelumnya di level US$ 55-US$ 60 per barel.
Menurutnya, gangguan pasokan menjadi katalis positif yang mengangkat harga minyak menjadi lebih tinggi dari perdagangan yang terjadi belakangan ini. Secara khusus, Andy menerangkan, potensi konflik antara Arab Saudi dan Iran memicu kenaikan harga minyak dalam waktu dekat.
Bulan ini ketegangan kedua negara itu semakin memanas lantaran Arab Saudi menuduh Iran memasok rudal kepada pemberontak Houthi di Yaman untuk menembakkan rudal ke negara penghasil minyak bumi terbesar dunia tersebut.
Di samping itu, Pemerintahan Raja Salman memerintahkan warganya untuk meninggalkan Lebanon, mengingat Iran memiliki pijakan utama di wilayah Timur Tengah itu melalui Hizbullah.
Konflik antar negara tersebut disinyalir membuat gangguan terhadap pasokan minyak global mengingat negara OPEC, termasuk Arab Saudi dan lran berkontribusi 42,7% dari total produksi dunia dan menyimpan cadangan 47,7% dari total pasokan minyak dunia pada 2016.
“Perhitungan kasar tentang potensi kerugian pasokan jika Saudi dan Iran berperang, bakal mencapai 17 juta barel per hari atau 26% dan total ekspor minyak global," kata Andy.
MASUK BURSA
Pendorong lain harga minyak dunia yang cukup panas yakni karena Arab Saudi rencananya akan mencantumkan perusahaan minyak dan gas nasionalnya di bursa berjangka New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
“Posisi Arab akan menjadi Iebih baik untuk melakukan negosisasi dengan AS terkait pengelolaan produksi minyak shale [minyak serpih] yang bisa memicu kenaikan harga minyak dunia,” katanya.
Pada perdagangan yang tercatat dalam jaringan Minggu (26/11), harga minyak West Texas Intemlediate (WTI) menguat 0,93 poin atau 1,60% menjadi US$ 58,95 per barel di New York Merchantile Exchange.
Sementara itu, harga minyak Brent naik 0,31 poin atau 0,49% mennju US$63,86 per barel di ICE Futures yang berbasis di London. Seperti diketahui, selama ini pendongkrak negatif reli harga minyak dunia adalah produksi minyak serpih AS yang semakin tinggi.
Berdasarkan data U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), produksi minyak AS pada 2017 akan meningkat 9,2 juta barel
per hari (bph) dari 2016 sebesar 8,9 juta bph. Sementara itu, pada 2018, produksi AS akan mencapai rekor 10 juta bph.
Oleh sebab itu, keberhasilan negosiasi soal persediaan dan harga minyak dunia dianggap mampu diraih seiring dengan hubungan yang tampak baik antara Presiden AS Donald Trump dan Pimpinan Arab Saudi Raja Salman.
Dari segi permintaan, riset Mirae Asset mengungkapkan bahwa klaim global akan terus tumbuh kendati posisi minyak terancam oleh berkembangnya kendaraan listrik (EVs) yang cenderung memicu berkurangnya permintaan minyak global.
lnternational Energy Agency (IEA) memproyeksikan permintaan global tumbuh mencapai 99,1 juta barel per hari pada 2018, naik 1,41% dari tahun ini sebesar 97,7 juta barel per hari. Menurut IEA, konsumsi minyak harian di kawasan Asia Pasifik mencapai 34,6 juta barel per hari pada 2018, atau 34,9% dari jumlah konsumsi minyak harian global.
Sementara itu, diproyeksikan konsumsi minyak harian di Amerika mencapai 31,7 juta barel per hari pada 2018, atau 32% dari total konsumsi harian dunia. Hans van Cleff, ABN Amro Senior Energy Economist mengatakan, pada 2018 pasar bakal mengkhawatirkan potensi kekurangan pasokan minyak, yang menyebabkan dorongan harga.
Di samping itu, permintaan minyak global akan terus meningkat di tahun-tahun mendatang didorong pertumbuhan ekonomi di India dan China.
“Pada 2018, akan ada kejutan reli harga minyak WTI mencapai US$ 70 barel per hari, sementara minyak Brent menuju level US$75 barel per hari," kata Cleef. Menurutnya, ketegangan politik yang mulai terasa panas akan berdampak lebih besar pada harga minyak dengan meningkatnya ketegangan antara Arab Saudi dan Iran yang berpotensi terjadinya penurunan pasokan lebih lanjut.
“Dengan kondisi itu, bahkan harga minyak pada awal 2019 bisa mencapai US$ 90 barel per hari,” katanya.
Sentimen-sentimen positif di atas menunjukkan semakin menguatnya posisi OPEC dan sekutunya, termasuk Rusia, dalam upaya mengurangi pasokan minyak dunia global guna mencapai tujuan keseimbangan pasar.
Menteri Energi Rusia Alexander Novak pada Jumat (24/11) mengatakan negaranya siap mendukung perluasan kesepakatan di antara produsen minyak dalam upaya mengurangi produksi global. Rusia akan membahas rincian perpanjangan kesepakatan global pada 30 November nanti.
“Namun, target rebalancing pasar belum tercapai. Semua orang mendukung ekstensi [perpanjangan waktu], sehingga target akhir tercapai."
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Monday, Nov 27, 2017
No comments:
Post a Comment