The potential for increasing energy subsidies this year is increasing as the world oil price continues to show an upward trend. To that end, the government is asked to recalculate the assumption of Indonesia oil price or Indonesia crude price (ICP) 2018 to fit the current condition.
Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede said, considering the improving global economic conditions in 2018 and world oil prices that are now above the level of US $ 60 per barrel, the assumption of ICP prices should be revised.
"Approximately US $ 50-US $ 55 per barrel considering the realization of ICP in 2017 has reached US $ 50 per barrel, higher than the government assumption," he said.
APBN 2018 establishes ICP assumption of US $ 48 per barrel. However, as of December 15, 2017, the average ICP has reached US $ 50.3 per barrel, from the assumption in the 2017 Revised State Budget of US $ 45 per barrel.
According to Josua, on the state expenditure side, ICP changes will affect the energy subsidy, revenue sharing (DBH) of oil and gas to the region as well as education and health budget. While the revenue side will affect the non-tax state revenue (PNBP) of natural resources (SDA) of oil and gas and Income Tax (PPh) of oil and gas.
The Ministry of Finance noted that with the realization of ICP of US $ 50 per barrel, the realization of Non-Tax State Revenue (PNBP) in 2017 reached Rp 281 trillion or 108% of the target of Rp 260.2 trillion. The realization of oil and gas PPh Rp 49.6 trillion or 118.8% of the target.
Bank Mandiri economist Andry Asmoro projected world oil prices will be at the level of US $ 55 to US $ 60 per barrel. According to him, if ICP assumptions are increased, it will affect the 2018 budget deficit set by 2.19% of GDP. The increase in deficit occurs because the government will pay more energy subsidies.
"The possibility of a deficit in 2018 could be bigger, but still safe, most similar to the deficit in 2017," explained Andry.
Executive Director of ReforMiner Institute Komaidi Notonegoro also predicted that world oil price this year will stay above US $ 60 per barrel. While ICP is estimated at US $ 60-US $ 65 per barrel.
"Parliament should remind the government to revise the ICP," he said.
Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Darmin Nasution is aware of this condition. However, the government still uses the ICP assumption of US $ 48 per barrel at least until the end of March 2018. Until that period the government guarantees the price of fuel oil (fuel), as well as electricity tariffs, are still fixed.
Looking ahead, Darmin can not confirm whether there will be changes ICP or not. The government also does not have an agreement yet how much of the world oil price hike can be detained not to raise fuel prices.
"This is the political year, the policy changes depending on the situation," explained Darmin.
IN INDONESIA
Asumsi Harga Minyak 2018 Diminta Revisi
Potensi bertambahnya subsidi energi tahun ini semakin besar karena harga minyak dunia masih menunjukkan tren peningkatan. Untuk itu, pemerintah diminta menghitung kembali asumsi harga minyak Indonesia atau Indonesia crude price (ICP) 2018 agar sesuai kondisi terkini.
Ekonom Bank Permata Josua Pardede mengatakan, mempertimbangkan kondisi ekonomi global yang semakin membaik di 2018 serta harga minyak dunia yang saat ini sudah di atas level US$ 60 per barel, maka asumsi harga ICP sebaiknya direvisi.
"Sekitar US$ 50-US$ 55 per barel mengingat realisasi ICP pada 2017 sudah mencapai US$ 50 per barel, lebih tinggi dari asumsi pemerintah," ujarnya.
APBN 2018 menetapkan asumsi ICP sebesar US$ 48 per barel. Namun, hingga 15 Desember 2017 rata-rata ICP sudah mencapai sebesar US$ 50,3 per barel, dari asumsi dalam APBN Perubahan 2017 sebesar US$ 45 per barel.
Menurut Josua, di sisi belanja negara, perubahan ICP akan berpengaruh pada subsidi energi, dana bagi hasil (DBH) migas ke daerah serta anggaran pendidikan dan kesehatan. Sedang sisi penerimaan, akan berdampak terhadap penerimaan negara bukan pajak (PNBP) sumber daya alam (SDA) migas dan Pajak Penghasilan (PPh) migas.
Kementerian Keuangan mencatat, dengan realisasi ICP sebesar US$ 50 per barel maka realisasi Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak (PNBP) pada 2017 mencapai Rp 281 triliun atau 108% dari target Rp 260,2 triliun. Sedang realisasi PPh migas Rp 49,6 triliun atau 118,8% dari target.
Ekonom Bank Mandiri Andry Asmoro memproyeksikan harga minyak dunia akan berada di level US$ 55 hingga US$ 60 per barel. Menurutnya, apabila asumsi ICP dinaikan, akan mempengaruhi defisit anggaran 2018 yang ditetapkan 2,19% dari PDB. Kenaikan defisit terjadi karena pemerintah akan membayar subsidi energi yang lebih banyak.
"Kemungkinan defisit di 2018 bisa lebih besar, tapi masih aman. Paling mirip dengan defisit di 2017," jelas Andry.
Direktur Eksekutif ReforMiner Institute Komaidi Notonegoro juga memprediksi harga minyak dunia tahun ini akan bertahan di atas US$ 60 per barel. Sedangkan ICP diperkirakan US$ 60-US$ 65 per barel.
"DPR harus mengingatkan pemerintah untuk merevisi ICP," katanya.
Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution menyadari kondisi ini. Namun, pemerintah masih menggunakan asumsi ICP sebesar US$ 48 per barel setidaknya hingga akhir Maret 2018. Hingga periode itu pemerintah menjamin harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) serta tarif listrik masih tetap.
Ke depan, Darmin belum bisa memastikan apakah akan ada perubahan ICP atau tidak. Pemerintah juga belum memiliki kesepakatan sampai berapa kenaikan harga minyak dunia bisa ditahan untuk tidak menaikkan harga BBM.
"Ini tahun politik, perubahan kebijakan tergantung situasi," jelas Darmin.
Kontan, Page-2, Thursday, Jan 4, 2018
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