The burden of energy subsidy becomes the budget burden again. See, due to rising world crude oil prices, the realization of the budget the energy subsidy of 2017 increases enormously.
The Ministry of Finance noted that until the end of 2017 the realization of energy subsidy budget reached Rp 97.6 trillion, equal to 108.7% of energy subsidy in APBNP 2017 amounting to Rp 89.9 trillion.
The increase in energy subsidy budget last year was like an alarm for this year. It is not impossible that the allocation of energy subsidies in 2018 exceeds the limit as well. Understandably, the government guarantees not to raise the price of fuel oil (BBM) subsidy and electricity tariffs, at least until March 2018. On the other hand, crude oil prices continue to rise.
Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in the global market was at US $ 60.29 per barrel. Goldman Sachs projection, Brent oil price at the level of US $ 62 per barrel at the end of the first quarter of 2018. The number of indications is far above the Indonesian oil price assumption (ICP) in the 2018 APBN of US $ 48 per barrel.
By comparison, as of November 2017, with the average price of WTI oil in the world market at US $ 56.81 barrel, ICP was set at US $ 59.34 per barrel. While the average ICP last year was estimated at US $ 50 per barrel, above the target of US $ 45 per barrel
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati is not worried about the upward trend in oil prices. Indeed, the allocation of energy subsidies increases if oil prices rise. On the other hand, rising oil prices also raised state revenues from oil and gas.
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati
"ICP above target is not a problem because subsidy cost increase is less than the increase of state revenue," said Sri Mulyani.
He added that the increase in the allocation of energy subsidies in 2017 caused two things. First, changes in world oil price assumptions. Second, last year's underpayment or carry over.
"This is for Pertamina and PLN which are under pressure," explained Sri Mulyani.
Satya Widya Yudha
Vice Chairman of Commission VII of the House of Representatives Satya Widya Yudha suggested that the government should propose a revision of the ICP assumption in the draft APBN-P 2018.
"ICP rises, the subsidy budget also increases, and the government should also be able to maintain the volume of energy subsidy distribution," Satya said.
IN INDONESIA
Waspadai Peningkatan Subsidi Energi 2018
Beban subsidi energi menjadi beban anggaran lagi. Lihat saja, akibat kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia, realisasi anggaran subsidi energi tahun 2017 bertambah sangat besar.
Kementerian Keuangan mencatat, sampai akhir 2017 realisasi anggaran subsidi energi mencapai Rp 97,6 triliun, Nilai tersebut setara 108,7% dari bagian subsidi energi dalam APBNP 2017 yang sebesar Rp 89,9 triliun.
Peningkatan anggaran subsidi energi tahun lalu seperti alarm untuk tahun ini. Bukan mustahil alokasi subsidi energi tahun 2018 melebihi batas juga. Maklum, pemerintah menjamin tidak menaikkan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) subsidi maupun tarif listrik, setidaknya sampai Maret 2018. Di sisi lain, harga minyak mentah terus naik.
Kemarin, harga minyak mentah jenis West Texas Intermediate (WTI) di pasar global di posisi US$ 60,29 per barel. Proyeksi Goldman Sachs, harga minyak Brent di level US$ 62 per barel pada akhir kuartal I-2018. Sejumlah indikasi itu jauh di atas asumsi harga minyak Indonesia (ICP) dalam APBN 2018 yang sebesar US$ 48 per barel.
Sebagai perbandingan, per November 2017, dengan harga rata-rata minyak WTI di pasar dunia US$ 56,81 barel, ICP ditetapkan US$ 59,34 per barel. Sementara rata-rata ICP sepanjang tahun lalu diperkirakan US$ 50 per barel, di atas target US$ 45 per barel
Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Indrawati tidak khawatir dengan tren kenaikan harga minyak. Memang, alokasi subsidi energi naik jika harga minyak naik. Tapi di sisi, kenaikan harga minyak juga menaikkan penerimaan negara dari migas.
"ICP di atas target tidak masalah. Sebab kenaikan beban subsidi lebih kecil dibanding peningkatan penerimaan negara," kata Sri Mulyani.
Dia menambahkan, kenaikan alokasi subsidi energi tahun 2017 disebabkan dua hal. Pertama, perubahan asumsi harga minyak dunia. Kedua, pembayaran kurang bayar tahun lalu atau carry over.
"Ini untuk Pertamina dan PLN yang katanya mengalami tekanan," jelas Sri Mulyani.
Wakil Ketua Komisi VII Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Satya Widya Yudha menyarankan, pemerintah sebaiknya mengajukan revisi asumsi ICP dalam rancangan APBN-P 2018.
"ICP naik, anggaran subsidi juga naik. Pemerintah juga harus bisa menjaga volume penyaluran subsidi energi," kata Satya.
Kompas, Page-22, Wednesday, Jan 3, 2018
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