A number of international investment banks posted a bullish outlook for crude oil commodities for the first half of 2018. The projection is in line with expectations of a successful cut of OPEC production tackling global supply surplus.
Three international bank instruments issued a bullish outlook on oil commodities, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan Chase & Co.
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs raised its price target to US $ 82 per barrel in the first half of this year, while JP Morgan estimated Brent's average oil price of US $ 70 per barrel to almost 50% higher than projected earlier in October.
This is in line with OPEC and its allies' efforts to comply with a production cut of 1.8 million bpd by the end of 2018. The three-agency's bullish stand is inversely proportionate to the overwhelming skepticism.
In 2014, Goldman Sachs published a report entitled "New Oil Order" stating that OPEC is "outdated" and officially no longer valid. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that OPEC's efforts to curb supply will be virtually ineffective when the US shale oil industry can rapidly increase production at large volumes.
Morgan Stanley
Similarly, Morgan Stanley could judge OPEC's decision to announce the intention of cutting production in September 2016 is unlikely to be implemented. Meanwhile, JP Morgan expects the OPEC deal to collapse by the end of 2017 and Commerz bank AG says OPEC is too promising and lacking in service.
However, OPEC members actually apply 95% of the cuts promised last year. The realization of production cuts by OPEC allies reached 82%. OPEC's compliance has improved over the past year to 129% by December 2017. Admittedly, unplanned losses in Venezuela and elsewhere have helped, but clearly no compliance levels have taken place in the history of OPEC.
Medio in January 2018, Goldman Sachs raised its Brent price forecast, an international benchmark for oil, averaging US $ 75 per barrel over the next 3 months. The projection is up from the previous target of US $ 62 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs also raised its 6 and 12 month forecasts to US $ 82, S0 and US $ 75 per barrel respectively. Goldman's projection is the most bullish compared to JP. Morgan and Morgan Stanley.
However, OPEC members actually apply 95% of the cuts promised last year. The realization of production cuts by OPEC allies reached 82%. OPEC's compliance has improved over the past year to 129% by December 2017. Admittedly, unplanned losses in Venezuela and elsewhere have helped, but clearly no compliance levels have taken place in the history of OPEC.
Medio in January 2018, Goldman Sachs raised its Brent price forecast, an international benchmark for oil, averaging US $ 75 per barrel over the next 3 months. The projection is up from the previous target of US $ 62 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs also raised its 6 and 12 month forecasts to US $ 82, S0 and US $ 75 per barrel respectively. Goldman's projection is the most bullish compared to JP. Morgan and Morgan Stanley.
JP Morgan
Last week, JP Morgan raised its Brent oil price forecast to US $ 70 per barrel this year and US $ 78 per barrel in the first half of 2018. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley expects Brent oil prices to touch US $ 75 per barrel this year.
On Friday (1/2), oil prices fell as the dollar surged following strong US employment data. At the close of trading in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices the most-active contract in March 2018 fell 0.35 points or 0.53 percent to US $ 65.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The most-active Brent oil price in April 2018 fell 1.07 points, or 1.54 percent, to $ 68, S8 per barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Meanwhile, the US dollar index rose 0.52 points or 0.59% to 89.195 after the release of positive US labor data.
The US Labor Department released Friday reported nonfarm payroll data [NFP] for the January 2018 period to increase by 200,000, higher than the 175,000 consensus, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.
US PRODUCTION
Crude was also hit by US production rising above 10 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time in more than four decades in November, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported earlier this week. Production also hit record levels, making oil prices lose power these days.
"Oil prices have come under pressure due to rising US oil production along with a rebound in the US dollar index. The price is currently in the overbought region, which has also led to profit-taking, "said Abhisek Kumar, senior energy analyst at Interfax Energy's Global Gas Analytics in London, as reported by Reuters.
Despite the weakness, crude oil prices are still supported by strong demand as producers attempt to cut production deals.
Jon Rigby, an analyst at UBS AG, said in a note saying that the production of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC and US shale oil has been justified to focus this year. But according to him, demand has supported tightening.
"Demand has quietly supported market tightening over the past year," Rigby said, as quoted by Reuters.
Global crude oil demand last year rose 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 1.5% from a year earlier. UBS AG projects that this year oil demand will grow 1.3 million bpd.
According to a Reuters survey, OPEC production in January 2018 has risen from an eight-month low, but this increase is not significant. Meanwhile, Russian data became a form of strong adherence to a decline in output with an output amount of only 10.95 million bpd at present.
"Last year, efforts to cut production of oil inventories fell by 220 million barrels from a level of 340 million barrels.The world crude oil producers' compulsory rose 138% in January 2018 from 137% in December 2017. Commitment to a production trimming deal will not be deterred even when oil prices reaching its highest level since 2014, "he said.
The cut has offset rising US crude oil output based on Energy Information Administration (EIA) data that has exceeded 10 million bpd in November for the first time since 1970. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes said that in the second week of February, the US will add 6 drilling rigs, so it has a total of 765 rigs, the second consecutive week's rise.
IN INDONESIA
On Friday (1/2), oil prices fell as the dollar surged following strong US employment data. At the close of trading in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices the most-active contract in March 2018 fell 0.35 points or 0.53 percent to US $ 65.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The most-active Brent oil price in April 2018 fell 1.07 points, or 1.54 percent, to $ 68, S8 per barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Meanwhile, the US dollar index rose 0.52 points or 0.59% to 89.195 after the release of positive US labor data.
The US Labor Department released Friday reported nonfarm payroll data [NFP] for the January 2018 period to increase by 200,000, higher than the 175,000 consensus, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.
US PRODUCTION
Crude was also hit by US production rising above 10 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time in more than four decades in November, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported earlier this week. Production also hit record levels, making oil prices lose power these days.
"Oil prices have come under pressure due to rising US oil production along with a rebound in the US dollar index. The price is currently in the overbought region, which has also led to profit-taking, "said Abhisek Kumar, senior energy analyst at Interfax Energy's Global Gas Analytics in London, as reported by Reuters.
Despite the weakness, crude oil prices are still supported by strong demand as producers attempt to cut production deals.
Jon Rigby, an analyst at UBS AG, said in a note saying that the production of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC and US shale oil has been justified to focus this year. But according to him, demand has supported tightening.
"Demand has quietly supported market tightening over the past year," Rigby said, as quoted by Reuters.
Global crude oil demand last year rose 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 1.5% from a year earlier. UBS AG projects that this year oil demand will grow 1.3 million bpd.
According to a Reuters survey, OPEC production in January 2018 has risen from an eight-month low, but this increase is not significant. Meanwhile, Russian data became a form of strong adherence to a decline in output with an output amount of only 10.95 million bpd at present.
"Last year, efforts to cut production of oil inventories fell by 220 million barrels from a level of 340 million barrels.The world crude oil producers' compulsory rose 138% in January 2018 from 137% in December 2017. Commitment to a production trimming deal will not be deterred even when oil prices reaching its highest level since 2014, "he said.
The cut has offset rising US crude oil output based on Energy Information Administration (EIA) data that has exceeded 10 million bpd in November for the first time since 1970. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes said that in the second week of February, the US will add 6 drilling rigs, so it has a total of 765 rigs, the second consecutive week's rise.
IN INDONESIA
Prospek Bullish Dominasi Pasar
Sejumlah investment bank internasional memasang prospek bullish terhadap komoditas minyak mentah untuk periode semester I/2018. Proyeksi itu sejalan dengan harapan berhasilnya pemangkasan produksi OPEC mengatasi kelebihan pasokan global.
Tiga instrument bank international yang mengeluarkan prospek bulish terhadap komoditas minyak, yakni Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Morgan Stanley, dan JP Morgan Chase & Co.
Goldman Sachs menaikkan target harga mencapai US$ 82 per barel pada paruh pertama tahun ini, sedangkan JP Morgan memperkirakan harga rerata minyak Brent sebesar US$ 70 per barel hampir 50% lebih tinggi dari proyeksi awal Oktober lalu.
Hal ini sejalan dengan upaya OPEC dan sekutunya untuk mematuhi kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi sebanyak 1,8 juta bph hingga akhir 2018. Sikap bullish tiga institusi keuangan itu berbanding terbalik dari skeptisisme yang membayangi selama ini.
Pada 2014, Goldman Sachs menerbitkan laporan berjudul “New Oil Order” yang menyebutkan bahwa OPEC “sudah usang” dan secara resmi tidak berlaku lagi. Ketika itu, Goldman Sachs Group Inc memperkirakan bahwa upaya OPEC untuk mengekang pasokan hampir tidak akan efektif di saat industri shale oil Amerika Serikat yang dapat meningkatkan produksi dengan cepat dengan volume yang besar.
Senada, Morgan Stanley sempat menilai langkah OPEC mengumumkan niat pemangkasan produksi pada September 2016 kecil kemungkinan untuk di implementasikan. Adapun, JP Morgan memperkirakan kesepakatan OPEC akan runtuh pada akhir 2017 dan Commerz bank AG mengatakan OPEC terlalu menjanjikan dan kurang mengabdi.
Namun, nyatanya anggota OPEC justru menerapkan 95% pemotongan yang dijanjikan tahun lalu. Adapun realisasi pemangkasan produksi oleh para sekutu OPEC mencapai 82%. Kepatuhan OPEC membaik sepanjang tahun lalu hingga mencapai 129% pada Desember 2017. Diakui, kerugian yang tidak direncanakan di Venezuela dan tempat lain telah membantu, namun yang jelas tingkat kepatuhan tidak pernah terjadi dalam sejarah OPEC.
Medio Januari 2018, Goldman Sachs menaikkan proyeksi harga Brent, patokan internasional untuk minyak, rata-rata US$ 75 per barel selama 3 bulan ke depan. Proyeksi itu naik dari target sebelumnya sebesar US$ 62 per barel.
Goldman Sachs juga menaikkan perkiraan 6 dan 12 bulan menjadi masing-masing US$ 82,S0 dan US$ 75 per barel. Proyeksi Goldman paling bullish dibandingkan dengan JP. Morgan dan Morgan Stanley.
Pekan lalu, JP Morgan menaikkan perkiraan harga minyak Brent menjadi rerata US$ 70 per barel pada tahun ini dan US$ 78 per barel pada semester I/2018. Adapun, Morgan Stanley memperkirakan harga minyak Brent dapat menyentuh US$ 75 per barel pada tahun ini.
Pada Jumat (1/2), harga minyak turun karena dolar melonjak menyusul data tenaga kerja AS yang kuat. Pada penutupan perdagangan harga minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) kontrak teraktif Maret 2018 melemah 0,35 poin atau 0,53% menjadi US$65,45 per barel di New York Merchantile Exchange.
Adapun harga minyak Brent kontrak teraktif April 2018 turun 1,07 poin atau 1,54% menuju US$ 68,S8 per barel di ICE Futures Europe yang berbasis di London. Sementara itu, indeks dolar AS mengalami kenaikan 0,52 poin atau 0,59% menjadi 89,195 pasca rilis data tenaga kerja AS yang positif.
Departemen Tenaga Kerja AS yang dirilis pada Jumat (1/2) melaporkan data non farm payroll [NFP) untuk periode Januari 2018 meningkat 200.000, lebih tinggi dari konsensus sebesar 175.000, sedangkan tingkat pengangguran tidak berubah sebesar 4,1%.
PRODUKSI AS
Minyak mentah juga mengalami tekanan akibat produksi AS meningkat di atas 10 juta barel per hari (bph) untuk pertama kalinya dalam lebih dari empat dekade pada November, seperti dilaporkan Energy Information Administration (EIA) awal pekan ini. Produksi juga menpapai tingkat rekor tertinggi, membuat harga minyak kehilangan tenaga akhir-akhir ini.
“Harga minyak telah mendapatkan tekanan karena kenaikan produksi minyak AS bersamaan dengan rebound indeks dolar AS. Harganya saat ini berada di wilayah overbought, yang juga telah mendorong aksi ambil untung,” kata Abhisek Kumar, senior energy analyst di Interfax Energy’s Global Gas Analytics di London, seperti dilansir Reuters.
Kendati mengalami pelemahan, harga minyak mentah masih mendapat dukungan dari permintaan yang kuat seiring dengan upaya produsen dalam menjalankan kesepakatan pemotongan produksi.
Jon Rigby, analis UBS AG dalam sebuah catatan menuturkan bahwa produksi Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dan non-OPEC serta minyak shale AS telah dibenarkan menjadi fokus pada tahun ini. Namun menurutnya, permintaan telah mendukung pengetatan.
“Permintaan secara diam-diam mendukung pengetatan pasar selama tahun lalu,” tutur Rigby, seperti dilansir dari Reuters.
Permintaan minyak mentah global pada tahun lalu naik 1,6 juta barel per hari (bph), atau sekitar 1,5% dari tahun sebelumnya. UBS AG memproyeksikan bahwa pada tahun ini permintaan minyak akan tumbuh 1,3 juta bph.
Menurut survei Reuters, produksi OPEC pada periode Januari 2018 telah naik dari level terendah 8 bulan, namun kenaikan ini tidak signifikan. Sementara itu, data Rusia menjadi bentuk kepatuhan yang kuat terhadap penurunan produksi dengan jumlah output hanya 10,95 juta bph pada saat ini.
"Tahun lalu, upaya pemangkasan produksi persediaan minyak turun 220 juta barel dari level 340 juta barel. Kepatuhan produsen minyak mentah dunia naik 138% pada Januari 2018 dari 137% pada Desember 2017. Komitmen pada kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi tidak akan tergoyahkan, bahkan ketika harga minyak mencapai tingkat tertinggi sejak 2014,” paparnya.
Pemotongan tersebut telah mengimbangi kenaikan produksi minyak mentah AS yang berdasarkan data Energy Information Administration (EIA) telah melampaui 10 juta bph pada November untuk pertama kalinya sejak 1970. Sementara itu, Baker Hughes mengatakan bahwa pada pekan kedua Februari, AS akan menambahkan 6 rig pengeboran, sehingga memiliki total sebanyak 765 rig, kenaikan minggu ke dua berturut-turut.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Monday, Feb 5, 2018
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