The rise in ICP is believed to provide a surplus in state revenue this year
The Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK) believes the upward trend in crude oil prices in the world market need not be feared. Therefore, the government has not thought to change the assumption of Indonesian oil price (ICP) in the State Budget of Reception and Expenditure (APBN) 2018.
This KSSK statement contradicts a number of other economic thinkers. They are pushing the government to immediately propose changes to the 2018 state budget as rising global oil prices will make subsidies grow and inflation is increasing.
In trading Tuesday (23/1), WTI oil price was set at US $ 63.88 per barrel, down slightly from a day before US $ 63.97 per barrel. In December 2017, WTI oil price was US $ 57.95 per barrel and Indonesian oil price (ICP) was set at US $ 60.9 per barrel.
Sri Mulyani Indrawati
Previously Bank Standard Chartered Indonesia predicts the average world oil price this year of US $ 61 per barrel. So there is a bigger potonsi energy subsidy Rp 30 trillion. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati as Chairman of KSSK admitted, the increase of world crude oil price became one of the things that KSSK observed.
"KSSK looks at challenges such as the impact of rising oil prices on inflation, subsidies," Sri Mulyani said
She said the movement of oil prices in the gIobaI market caused deviation with ICP in APBN. However, Sri asserted, the government has no thought to change the assumptions of ICP and the state budget 2018. However, this policy recognizes the impact on increasing the burden of subsidies borne by Pertamina and PLN. The government does not want to change the assumption because it wants to maintain the credibility of the state budget.
"In terms of subsidy spending will be a good accountability mechanism on who ultimately bear and how much. And we see it in one year, because the Law on State Budget does not indicate change (fuel price), "added Sri Mulyani.
Still a surplus
According to Sri Mulyani, the rise in ICP will benefit the state budget. Receipts from oil and gas, from taxes and non-tax state revenues (PNBP) will increase. In fact, its contribution is greater than the increase in expenditure.
"Therefore, in APBN, our oil price hike still gets a surplus," explained Sri Mulyani.
APBN 2018 noted that every increase of ICP of US $ 1 per barrel gives a surplus of Rp 300 billion-Rp 1 trillion. If the ICP this year reaches US $ 60 per barrel, then there will be an increase of US $ 12 per barrel, so additional revenue can reach Rp 3.6 trillion-Rp 12 trillion.
Samuel Asset Management economist Lana Soelistyaningsih hopes the government will propose changes to the 2018 state budget to make the APBN realistic.
"But not too fast, because it may be considered reactive, April may be fitting," he said.Lana estimates this year the price of oil could reach US $ 75 per barrel.
IN INDONESIA
Pemerintah Pertahankan Asumsi Harga Minyak
Kenaikan ICP dipercaya akan memberikan surplus pada penerimaan negara tahun ini
Komite Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan (KSSK) yakin tren kenaikan harga minyak mentah di pasar dunia tidak perlu ditakutkan. Oleh karena itu pemerintah belum memikirkan untuk mengubah asumsi harga minyak Indonesia (ICP) dalam Anggaran Penerimaan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2018.
Pernyataan KSSK ini bertentangan dengan sejumlah pemikiran lembaga ekonomi Iain. Mereka mendorong pemerintah segera mengajukan perubahan APBN 2018 karena kenaikan harga minyak dunia akan membuat subsidi bertambah besar dan inflasi semakin meningkat.
Pada perdagangan Selasa (23/1), harga minyak WTI ditetapkan US$ 63,88 per barel, turun sedikit dari sehari sebeIumnya US$ 63,97 per barel. Pada Desember 2017, harga minyak WTI US$ 57,95 per barel dan harga minyak Indonesia (ICP) ditetapkan US$ 60,9 per barel.
Sebelumnya Bank Standard Chartered Indonesia memprediksi rata-rata harga minyak dunia tahun ini US$ 61 per barel. Sehingga ada potonsi bertambah besar subsidi energi Rp 30 triliun. Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Indrawati selaku Ketua KSSK mengakui, kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia menjadi salah satu hal yang dicermati KSSK.
"KSSK mencermati tantangan seperti dampak kenaikan harga minyak terhadap inflasi, subsidi," kata Sri Mulyani
Dia bilang pergerakan harga minyak di pasar gIobaI menimbulkan deviasi dengan ICP di APBN. Namun, Sri menegaskan, pemerintah belum memiliki pemikiran mengubah asumsi ICP maupun APBN 2018. Meski demikian kebijakan ini diakuinya akan berimbas pada peningkatan beban subsidi yang ditanggung Pertamina dan PLN. Pemerintah tidak ingin mengubah asumsi karena ingin mempertahankan kredibilitas APBN.
"Dari sisi belanja subsidi akan dilakukan mekanisme akuntabilitas yang baik mengenai siapa yang pada akhirnya menanggung
dan berapa. Dan kami Iihat dalam satu tahun ini, sebab Undang-Undang APBN tidak mengindikasikan perubahan (harga BBM),“ tambah Sri Mulyani.
Masih surplus
Menurut Sri Mulyani, kenaikan ICP akan menguntungkan APBN. Penerimaan yang berasal dari minyak dan gas, dari pajak maupun penerimaan negara bukan pajak (PNBP) akan meningkat. Bahkan, kontribusinya lebih besar dibanding peningkatan belanja.
"Oleh karena itu secara APBN, kenaikan harga minyak kita masih mendapatkan surplus," terang Sri Mulyani.
APBN 2018 mencatat, setiap kenaikan ICP sebesar US$ 1 per barel memberikan surplus penerimaa Rp 300 miliar-Rp 1 triliun. Jika ICP tahun ini mencapai US$ 60 per barel, maka terjadi kenaikan US$ 12 per barel, sehingga tambahan penerimaan bisa mencapai Rp 3,6 triliun-Rp 12 triliun.
Ekonom Samuel Asset Management Lana Soelistyaningsih berharap pemerintah mengajukan perubahan APBN 2018 untuk membuat APBN realistis.
"Namun jangan terlalu cepat, karena mungkin dianggap reaktif. April mungkin pas,” katanya. Lana memperkirakan tahun ini harga minyak bisa mencapai US$ 75 per barel.
Kontan, Page-2, Wednesday, Jan 24, 2018
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