Oil prices touched $ 80 a barrel as supply tightened and demand continued to strengthen. The current price level has not been achieved since November 2014.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Company Bank reveals that a surge in US shale oil production could not replace Iran's oil decline after the US re-imposed sanctions on the world's third-largest producer of the crude exporting nation (OPEC). Oil prices then lifted. Oil prices have rallied to the highest level for more than 3 years.
On Tuesday, 17.07 GMT, Brent oil rose 0.90 points, or 1.1 percent, to settle at $ 80.18 a barrel, but returned to $ 79.91 a barrel afterwards. West Texas Intermediate oil trading rose 0.57 points or 0.80 percent to US $ 72.06 per barrel. The WTI price is now the highest level since trading in 2015. Meanwhile, in 2014, WTI had touched US $ 89.6 per barrel and decreased to the level of US $ 70s per banel in December. Commodity analyst at Kiwoom Securities Co. Ahn Yea Ha said US oil demand is still stable.
"Geopolitical uncertainties support prices above US $ 70 per barrel until tensions are reduced. We will continue to sell [WTI] oil at a price range below US $ 72, "he said, quoted by Bloomberg, Thursday (17/5).
Looking at the continued upward movement in oil prices, US financial institution Morgan Stanley then raised its Brent price forecast to $ 90 a barrel by 2020. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2018 from 1.5 million barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day. The IEA said oil demand was at an average of 99.2 million barrels per day by 2018.
Meanwhile, supply is currently at the level of 98 million barrels per day after the enactment of OPEC production trimming policy. The IEA estimates output growth outside OPEC will rise by 1.87 million barrels per day by 2018. The IEA shows a record of overseas demand for US crude along with declining oil and domestic fuel stocks.
"Investors are beginning to weigh whether the market sees trading to be tight during the summer when the driving season takes place in North America," said
Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.
US PRODUCTION
US oil production has risen significantly, reaching 27% in the last 2 years and touching the production record of 10.72 million barrels per day. US production is bringing Uncle Sam's country is almost parallel to Russia as the top oil producer that pumps about 11 million barrels per day outside OPEC. The result of the surge in production, US crude oil exports in the global market skyrocketed.
Marex Spectron commodity futures broker reveals that a surge in US oil supplies is enough to affect the bearish position of oil futures contract developments.
"The US economic outlook is also bearish because of the deteriorating short-term credit conditions so [oil] is not priced well by the market," Marex Spectron reports. Brokers claim that the intensity of trade in US energy commodities will continue to decline, becoming bad news for futures trading in oil commodities.
IN INDONESIA
Minyak Tembus US$ 80 per Barel
Harga minyak menyentuh US$ 80 per barel karena pasokan yang semakin ketat dan permintaan terus menguat. Level harga saat ini belum pernah dicapai kembali sejak November 2014.
Bank Perusahaan Goldman Sachs Group Inc. mengungkapkan bahwa lonjakan produksi minyak serpih AS tidak bisa menggantikan penurunan minyak Iran setelah AS kembali memberlakukan sanksi pada produsen terbesar ketiga organisasi negara pengekspor minyak mentah (OPEC) itu. Harga minyak kemudian terangkat. Harga minyak telah reli ke level tertinggi selama lebih dan 3 tahun.
Pada perdagangan Kamis (17/5) pukul 17.07 WIB tercatat minyak Brent naik 0,90 poin atau 1,1% menyentuh US$80,18 per barel, namun kembali ke US$79,91 per barel setelahnya. Perdagangan minyak West Texas Intermediate mengalami kenaikan 0,57 poin atau 0,80% menjadi US$72,06 per barel. Harga WTI saat ini menjadi level teninggi sejak perdagangan 2015. Sementara itu pada 2014, WTI sempat menyentuh US$89,6 per barel dan menurun ke level US$70-an per banel pada Desember. Analis komoditas di Kiwoom Securities Co. Ahn Yea Ha mengatakan permintaan minyak AS masih stabil.
“Ketidakpastian geopolitik mendukung harga di atas US$70 per barel hingga ketegangan berkurang. Kami akan tetap menjual minyak [WTI] pada kisaran harga di bawah US$72,” ujarnya dikutip dari Bloomberg, Kamis (17/5).
Melihat pergerakan harga minyak yang terus menguat, lembaga keuangan AS Morgan Stanley kemudian menaikkan prediksi harga Brent menjadi US$ 90 per barel pada 2020. Sementara itu, Agen Energi Internasional (IEA) menurunkan prediksi penumbuhan permintaan minyak global untuk 2018 dari 1,5 juta barel per hari menjadi 1,4 juta barel per hari. IEA mengungkapkan, permintaan minyak berada pada rata-rata 99,2 juta barel per hari pada 2018.
Adapun, pasokan saat ini berada pada level 98 juta barel per hari setelah pemberlakuan kebijakan pemangkasan produksi OPEC. IEA memperkirakan pertumbuhan produksi di luar OPEC akan naik 1,87 juta barel per hari pada 2018. IEA menunjukkan adanya rekor permintaan luar negeri untuk minyak mentah AS disertai dengan menurunnya stok minyak serta bahan bakar domestik.
"Investor mulai menimbang apakah pasar melihat perdagangan akan ketat selama musim panas ketika musim berkendara berlangsung di Amerika Utara,” kata Michael Lynch, President Strategic Energy and Economic Research di Winchester, Massachusetts.
PRODUKSI AS
Produksi minyak AS telah mengalami kenaikan yang cukup signifikan, mencapai 27% dalam 2 tahun terakhir dan menyentuh rekor produksi sebanyak 10,72
juta barel per hari. Produksi AS tersebut membawa Negeri Paman Sam berada hampir sejajar dengan Rusia sebagai produsen minyak teratas yang memompa sekitar 11 juta barel per hari di luar OPEC. Hasil dari lonjakan produksi itu, ekspor minyak mentah AS di pasar global meroket.
Pialang berjangka komoditas Marex Spectron mengungkapkan bahwa lonjakan pasokan minyak AS cukup berpengaruh pada posisi bearish perkembangan kontrak minyak berjangka.
“Outlook ekonomi AS juga mengalami bearish karena kondisi kredit jangka pendek yang memburuk sehingga [minyak] tidak diberi harga yang pantas oleh pasar,” ungkap laporan Marex Spectron. Pialang menyatakan bahwa intensitas perdagangan komoditas energi AS akan terus berkurang, menjadi kabar buruk untuk perdagangan berjangka komoditas minyak.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Friday, May 18, 2018
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