Old Block Dominates

   The downward trend in crude oil production since 2008-2018 was due to 79% of the oil and gas working area being old so that production decreased naturally.

Oil production ready for sale (lifting) in 2008 amounted to 927,000 barrels per day (bpd), but continued to decline until this year in the range of 750,000-800,000 bpd. On the other hand, consumption of fuel oil (BBM) continues to grow. Therefore, the fuel supply deficit continues to widen so that the volume of imports of oil and fuel oil continues to increase.

Head of the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKK Migas) Amien Sunaryadi said that 79% of oil and gas fields in Indonesia are more than 15 years old.

"This is the case, the oil and gas production volume has been estimated since the beginning of the oil and gas field, since the time of deciding this field will be built. That is, if for example the era of President SBY [Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono] was high lifting, but the era of President Jokowi [Joko Widodo] declined, it had nothing to do because the field was mature, "he said.

Amien added, in addition to production down, old oil and gas fields tend to require greater maintenance costs so that the production costs that must be returned (cost recovery) continue to rise.

"Why do costs increase, even though production drops? It was a false statement because the oil and gas field must be seen from the start [built] to the end. From the beginning of production, it will cost so much, then it will be reduced by capital expenditure and operations, the rest will be shared by the government and contractors

He explained that the new oil and gas fields were in the range of 6-7 years old. The new field will have high production and low costs. "But if the field is old, lifting is down and costs are rising."

BP Indonesia also acknowledges that investment in the energy sector, especially upstream oil and gas in Indonesia, tends to be very slow. This can be seen from oil production that has not experienced growth. BP Chief Economist Spencer Dale previously said, in the last 8 to 10 years, oil production in Indonesia had not experienced growth. In fact, the demand for energy such as oil and gas continues to increase every year.

"That ultimately makes Indonesia have to import [oil and fuel oil]," he said.

Similar to natural gas, Spencer said, gas production in Indonesia in the last 7 years has tended to be lower.

"Natural gas production in 2017 is lower by 20% compared to 2010."

However, unlike oil, the demand for gas has not experienced growth so that Indonesia can still export the commodity.

SLOW INVESTMENT

In addition to the downward trend in oil production, the government also faces the challenges of sloping oil and gas investment. Amien Sunaryadi said that there were many factors that triggered a decline in oil and gas investment in Indonesia. One of the factors is the rate of return that investors will receive.

"Oil and gas investment also has nothing to do with gross split. Their decision is due to the main things like the rate of return. This means, if they invest, what is the Rate of Return (ROR) they will receive. That's what investors are looking for, "he said.

Contracts for gross yields came into effect in early 2017 replacing the cost recovery scheme. However, the scheme only applies to new contracts. In addition to the investment return period, legal certainty has also been a trigger for the lack of investment in the oil and gas sector this year. Amien explained, investors are often hesitant to invest because there is no legal certainty. He stressed that the decline in investment had nothing to do with the president's leadership period.

"Then why is the investment declining, this has nothing to do with the President. There is a condition that Indonesia has increased fuel consumption, production has dropped, therefore crude imports and fuel are very high, they have to pay a lot of money, so the dollar strengthens. "

The downward trend in lifting is also caused by the majority of oil and gas blocks that produce, domestically are old. Therefore, the production of old oil and gas blocks will decline naturally.

Head of country BP Indonesia Moekianto Soeryowibowo said that there were three things that made investment in the energy sector slow. First, Indonesia is not prospective enough in the oil and gas sector. Second, fiscal problems. Regarding fiscal policy, he said the government only allocated very little budget for the energy sector. In fact, the budget for the energy sector is far smaller than the previous period.

"The fiscal is not competitive, so this is the government's challenge how can small budgets attract investors."

Third, very complicated regulations. However, the government continues to encourage investors to carry out oil and gas exploration activities in the country.

IN INDONESIAN

Blok Tus Mendominasi

Tren penurunan produksi minyak mentah sejak 2008-2018 disebabkan 79% wilayah kerja minyak dan gas bumi sudah berusia tua sehingga mengalami penurunan produksi secara alamiah.

Produksi minyak siap jual (lifting) pada 2008 sebesar 927.000 barel per hari (bph), tetapi terus turun hingga pada tahun ini di kisaran 750.000-800.000 bph. Di sisi lain, konsumsi Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) terus bertumbuh. Oleh karena itu, defisit suplai BBM terus melebar sehingga volume impor minyak dan bahan bakar minyak terus meningkat.

Kepala Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Minyak dan Gas Bumi (SKK Migas) Amien Sunaryadi mengatakan bahwa 79% lapangan migas di Indonesia berumur lebih dari 15 tahun. 

“Memang begini, di lapangan migas sejak awal sudah bisa di estimasi [volume produksi migas] , sejak waktu memutuskan lapangan ini akan dibangun. Artinya, kalau misalnya zaman Presiden SBY [Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono] lifting tinggi, tetapi zaman Presiden Jokowi [Joko Widodo] menurun, itu tidak ada hubungannya karena lapangannya sudah mature,” katanya.

Amien menambahkan, selain produksi turun, Iapangan migas berusia tua cenderung membutuhkan biaya perawatan lebih besar sehingga biaya produksi yang harus dikembalikan (cost recovery) terus naik.

“Mengapa biaya naik, padahal produksi turun? Itu pernyataan salah karena lapangan migas harus dilihat sejak awal [dibangun] sampai akhir. Dari awal produksi sekian biayanya sekian kemudian dikurangi belanja modal dan operasi, sisanya dibagi pemerintah dan kontraktor”

Dia menjelaskan bahwa lapangan migas yang masih baru berusia di kisaran 6-7 tahun. Lapangan yang masih baru itu akan memiliki produksi tinggi dan biaya rendah. “Namun kalau lapangan tua, lifting turun dan biaya naik.”

BP Indonesia juga mengakui bahwa investasi sektor energi khususnya hulu migas di Indonesia cenderung sangat lambat. Hal ini terlihat dari produksi minyak yang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan. Chief Economist BP Spencer Dale sebelumnya mengatakan, dalam 8 sampai 10 tahun terakhir, produksi minyak di Indonesia tidak mengalami pertumbuhan. Padahal, permintaan terhadap energi seperti minyak dan gas bumi terus meningkat setiap tahun. 

“Itu yang pada akhirnya membuat Indonesia harus impor [minyak dan bahan bakar minyak],” katanya.

Sama halnya dengan gas bumi, Spencer mengatakan, produksi gas di Indonesia dalam 7 tahun terakhir cenderung lebih rendah.

“Produksi gas bumi pada 2017 lebih rendah 20% dibandingkan 2010.”

Namun, berbeda dengan minyak, permintaan untuk gas tidak mengalami pertumbuhan sehingga Indonesia masih bisa melakukan ekspor komoditas tersebut.

INVESTASI MELAMBAT

Selain tren penurunan produksi minyak, pemerintah juga menghadapi tantangan investasi migas yang melandai. Amien Sunaryadi mengatakan bahwa banyak faktor yang menjadi pemicu penurunan investasi minyak dan gas bumi di Indonesia. Salah satu faktor itu berupa periode pengembalian modal (rate of retutn) yang akan diterima investor. 

“Investasi migas turun juga tidak ada hubungannya dengan gross split [skema kontrak bagi hasil kotor]. Keputusan mereka disebabkan karena hal-hal utama seperti rate of return. Artinya begini, kalau mereka investasi, berapa Rate of Return (ROR) yang akan mereka terima. Itu yang dicari investor,” katanya.

Kontrakbagi hasil kotor mulai berlaku pada awal 2017 menggantikan skema cost recovery. Namun, skema itu hanya berlaku untuk kontrak baru.  Selain periode pengembalian investasi, kepastian hukum juga menjadi pemicu minimnya investasi di sektor migas pada tahun ini. Amien menjeiaskan, para investor sering ragu untuk melakukan investasi karena tidak ada kepastian hukum. Dia menegaskan bahwa penurunan investasi tidak ada kaitannya dengan masa kepemimpinan seorang Presiden.

“Kemudian tentang investasi kenapa menurun, ini tidak ada hubungannya dengan Presiden. Yang ada kondisi Indonesia konsumsi BBM naik, produksi turun, karena itu impor crude dan fuel tinggi sekali harus bayar dolarnya banyak, makanya dolarnya menguatnya.”

Tren penurunan lifting juga disebabkan oleh sebagian besar blok migas yang berproduksi, di dalam negeri sudah berusia tua. Oleh karena itu, produksi blok migas yang sudah tua itu akan menurun secara alamiah.

Head of country BP Indonesia Moekianto Soeryowibowo mengatakan bahwa ada tiga hal yang membuat investasi di sektor energi menjadi Iambat. Pertama, Indonesia tidak cukup prospektif dalam sektor migas. Kedua, masalah fiskal. Terkait dengan kebijakan fiskal, dia mengatakan pemerintah hanya mengalokasikan anggaran sedikit sekali untuk sektor energi.  Bahkan, anggaran untuk sektor energi jauh lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan periode sebelumnya. 

“Fiskalnya tidak kompetitif, jadi ini tantangan pemerintah bagaimana dengan anggaran kecil bisa menarik pada investor.”

Ketiga, regulasi yang sangat rumit. Namun, pemerintah terus mendorong investor untuk melakukan kegiatan eksplorasi migas di Tanah Air.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-24, Friday, Nov 9, 2018