Business actors assess that large investment and discovery of new reserves are the main keys to pursue the target of producing 1 million barrels of oil per day (BPD) by 2030 amid the downward trend in the production of existing blocks.
The Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKK Migas) previously set a target of oil production of 1 million BPD in 2030. In order to achieve this target, SKK Migas began to introduce the potential of oil and gas blocks that can be explored by investors. Indonesia 2020 Petroleum Association (IPA) President Louise McKenzie said the government and SKK oil and gas targets to get 1 million BPD of oil production, would be difficult to come from existing oil and gas fields.
"This target requires new projects and discoveries. We know that the government is doing a lot to create opportunities there [target of 1 million bpd], "he said, at the 48th Annual IPA Annual General Meeting press conference.
Mckenzie added that amid declining oil production, additional oil production is needed which is also expected to cover the decline in production and the oil and gas block that is already operating. At present oil production is around 750,000 BPD.
On the other hand, to increase the passion of the oil and gas sector, IPA Vice President Ronald Gunawan said the government needs to continue to ensure certainty because this sector is a capital-intensive investment with a long-term orientation.
"If there is no certainty, it is rather difficult to achieve. So we hope that the contract rules must be maintained during the investment process. That is important because it is an attractive factor for investors to invest, "he said.
Ronald admitted during the last 3 years, there have been improvements in the quality of oil and gas licensing in the country. He hopes that the government will continue to simplify licensing and regulations so that the government's target related to oil and gas production is achieved.
Petroleum production over the past 10 years has shown a downward trend from 346 million barrels or 949,000 BPD in 2009 to 283 million barrels or 778,000 BPD in 2018. The decline in production was caused by primary oil production wells that are generally old. Meanwhile, the production of new wells is still relatively limited.
The opportunity for the national oil and gas industry is still large because of a total of 128 sedimentary basins in Indonesia, there are still 54 basins that have been explored and which have produced as many as 19 basins. Thus there are still 74 basins waiting to be explored and 35 basins that have been explored are expected to find oil and gas reserves through continuous exploration and investment in the basin.
Dwi Soetjipto
The Head of SKK Migas Dwi Soetjipto said that in carrying out the upstream oil and gas project, SKK Migas prioritized the national capacity building carried out by upstream oil and gas. Dwi also hopes that investment in upstream oil and gas continues to increase. Until 2027, there are 42 main projects with a total investment of US $ 43.3 billion and gross revenue projections of US $ 20 billion.
Later, the total production and 42 projects are 1.1 million boepd which includes oil production of 92,200 BPD and gas of 6.1 billion cubic feet per day (mmscfd). Four of them are national upstream oil and gas strategic projects which are priorities to increase oil and gas production to meet the increasing domestic oil and gas consumption.
"From here [to encourage investment] SKK Migas is making changes so that it is fast, progress is accelerating all arrangements. We will also identify potentials, "he said.
OUTSIDE AREA
Expectations of increased production also come from the successful search for new sources of oil reserves. For example, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillip plan to explore outside their operations to find oil and gas reserves. Dwi said the two Cooperation Contract Contractors (KKKS) from the United States planned to explore open areas.
"They have obligations," he said.
According to him, the choice of KKKS to explore outside its working area, also considers the potential for additional oil and gas reserves. Dwi added that currently, the funds collected from the defined work commitment (KKP) for exploration have reached the US $ 2.5 billion. The funds are obtained from gross profit-sharing contracts.
Azi N. Alam
Regarding exploration plans in open areas, ExxonMobil agrees to the possibility. Vice President of Public and Government Affairs, ExxonMobil Indonesia Azi N. Alam said that the company remained committed to Indonesia and continued to look for other opportunities.
"Both in the Cepu Block and throughout Indonesia, as part of our long-term commitment in Indonesia."
At present, ExxonMobil is the largest oil-producing KKKS in Indonesia. As of September 2019, ExxonMobil Cepu Ltd recorded a ready-to-sell production of 216,011 BPD or exceeding the set target of 216,000 bpd.
IN INDONESIA
Investasi dan Cadangan Baru Menjadi Kunci
Pelaku usaha menilai investasi besar dan penemuan cadangan baru menjadi kunci utama untuk mengejar target produksi minyak 1 juta barel per Hari (bph) pada 2030 di tengah tren penurunan produksi blok eksisting.
Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Minyak dan Gas Bumi (SKK Migas) sebelumnya mencanangkan target produksi minyak sebesar 1 juta bph pada 2030. Demi mencapai target tersebut, SKK Migas mulai memperkenalkan potensi-potensi blok migas yang dapat dieksplorasi investor. Presiden Indonesia Petroleum Association (IPA) periode 2020 Louise McKenzie mengatakan target pemerintah dan SKK migas mendapatkan produksi minyak 1 juta bph, akan sulit datang dari lapangan migas yang sudah ada.
“Target ini membutuhkan proyek dan penemuan yang baru. Kami tahu, pemerintah banyak melakukan hal untuk menciptakan peluang kesana [target 1 juta bph],” tuturnya, dalam konferensi pers Annual General Meeting IPA ke-48.
Mckenzie menambahkan di tengah produksi minyak yang menurun, diperlukan tambahan produksi minyak yang juga diharapkan menutup penurunan produksi dan blok migas yang sudah beroperasi. Saat ini produksi minyak berkisar 750.000 bph. Di sisi lain, untuk meningkatkan gairah sektor migas, Wakil Presiden IPA Ronald Gunawan mengatakan pemerintah perlu terus menjamin kepastian, karena sektor ini merupakan investasi padat modal yang berorientasi jangka panjang.
“Kalau tidak ada kepastian agak susah tercapai. Makanya kami berharap aturan kontrak itu harus terjaga selama investasi berlangsung. Itu penting, karena menjadi faktor menarik para investor untuk berinvestasi,” katanya.
Ronald mengakui selama 3 tahun terakhir, sudah ada perbaikan kualitas perizinan migas di Tanah Air. Dia berharap, pemerintah terus menyederhanakan perizinan dan peraturan agar target pemerintah terkait produksi migas tercapai. Produksi minyak bumi selama 10 tahun terakhir menunjukkan kecenderungan penurunan dari 346 juta barel atau 949.000 bph pada 2009 menjadi 283 juta barel atau 778.000 bph pada 2018. Penurunan produksi tersebut disebabkan oleh sumur-sumur produksi utama minyak bumi yang umumnya sudah tua. Sementara itu, produksi sumur baru relatif masih terbatas.
Peluang industri migas nasional masih besar karena dari total sebanyak 128 cekungan sedimen yang ada di Indonesia, masih 54 cekungan yang telah dieksplorasi dan yang berproduksi sebanyak 19 cekungan. Dengan demikian masih ada 74 cekungan yang menunggu untuk dieksplorasi serta 35 cekungan yang telah dieksplorasi diharapkan dapat ditemukan cadangan migas melalui eksplorasi dan investasi yang terus menerus di cekungan tersebut.
Kepala SKK Migas Dwi Soetjipto mengatakan dalam menjalankan proyek hulu migas, SKK Migas mengutamakan peningkatan kapasitas nasional yang dilakukan hulu migas. Dwi pun berharap investasi hulu migas terus meningkat. Tercatat hingga 2027 terdapat 42 proyek utama dengan total investasi US$43,3 miliar dan proyeksi pendapatan kotor (gross revenue) sebesar US$20 miliar.
Nantinya, total produksi dan 42 proyek tersebut 1,1 juta boepd yang mencakup produksi minyak sebesar 92.200 bph dan gas sebesar 6,1 miliar kaki kubik per hari (mmscfd). Empat di antaranya merupakan proyek strategis nasional hulu migas yang menjadi prioritas untuk meningkatkan produksi migas demi memenuhi konsumsi migas domestik yang semakin meningkat.
“Dari sini [untuk mendorong investasi] SKK Migas melakukan perubahan-perubahan supaya cepat, kemajuan percepatan segala pengurusan. Kami juga akan melakukan identifikasi potensi,” tuturnya.
LUAR AREA
Harapan peningkatan produksi juga datang dari keberhasilan pencarian sumber cadangan minyak baru. Sebut saja, ExxonMobil dan ConocoPhillip berencana melakukan eksplorasi di luar area operasinya untuk mencari cadangan migas. Dwi mengatakan kedua Kontraktor Kontrak Kerja Sama (KKKS) asal Amerika Serikat itu berencana melakukan eksplorasi di area terbuka.
“Mereka kan ada kewajiban,” tuturnya.
Menurutnya, pilihan KKKS untuk melakukan eksplorasi di luar wilayah kerjanya, juga mempertimbangkan potensi tambahan cadangan migas. Dwi menambahkan saat ini dana yang dihimpun dari komitmen kerja pasti (KKP) untuk eksplorasi sudah mencapai US$2,5 miliar. Dana tersebut didapatkan dari kontrak bagi hasil kotor atau gross split.
Terkait rencana eksplorasi di area terbuka, ExxonMobil mengamini adanya kemungkinan tersebut. Vice President Public and Government Affairs, ExxonMobil Indonesia Azi N. Alam mengatakan pihaknya tetap berkomitmen kepada Indonesia dan terus mencari peluang lain.
“Baik di Blok Cepu maupun di seluruh Indonesia, sebagai bagian dari komitmen jangka panjang kami di Indonesia.”
Saat ini, ExxonMobil merupakan KKKS penghasil minyak terbesar di Indonesia. Per September 2019, ExxonMobil Cepu Ltd mencatatkan produksi siap jual sebesar 216.011 bph atau melebihi target yang ditetapkan sebesar 216.000 bph.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-24, Thursday, Dec 5, 2019
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