Waiting for Uncle Sam's Response

       With the agreement to cut crude oil production to an average of 33.25 million barrels per day (BPD) next year by a number of OPEC members, it is hoped that there will be an improvement in crude oil prices in 2017.

    Some analysts even estimate that the 1.2 million BPD cut in crude oil production will increase prices to more than US$ 50 per barrel on average next year. However, the increase in crude oil prices to this level could also trigger the recovery of unconventional oil production (tight oil) in the United States.

    If this happens, it is not impossible, production cuts will be in vain because the threat of overproduction lurks again. The US Energy Information Administration/EIA also admits that there is a risk of recovery of rights oil in the US if the price of oil exceeds US$ 50 per barrel.

    In the Short-Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday (12/6/2017) local time, the EIA revealed that in addition to the agreement to cut oil production by OPEC members, a number of non-OPEC oil producers are now also paying attention to holding back or cut production.

    The plan, on Saturday (Dec 12) in Vienna Austria, there will be a meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC to discuss production cuts and non-OPEC countries which are targeted to reach an agreement to cut as much as 600,000 BPD.

"If the production cut deal contributes to raising prices above $50 per barrel in the months ahead, this will prompt a return to increased supply of US tight oil sooner than expected," the EIA report said.

    Based on the report, the price of crude oil reaching the level of US$ 50 per barrel will increase investment by a number of US oil producers, especially those operating in the Permian Basin. 

    In fact, the report also estimates that if crude oil prices can recover by exceeding US$ 50 per barrel, it will boost the supply of US Tight Oil in other regions, not only in the Permian Basin. In addition, if this scenario starts, then non-OPEC oil producers that do not participate in the OPEC production cut plan, will also increase their supply.

    An increase in supply from US tight oil is not impossible. Moreover, US President-elect Donald Trump has a discourse that he wants to implement US energy independence policies and create greater jobs for US citizens. It is undeniable that the return to high production of tight oil, which is characterized by a large number of drilling and lower 48 US states outside Alaska and Hawaii, will require a large workforce.

    However, drilling for the right oil and shale gas using the fracking technique also cannot be separated from the attention of the US public, especially regarding the sustainability of water reserves so resistance appears to be rejected. However, until now there is no certainty as to what kind of policy Donald Trump will take regarding crude oil production and the global community is still waiting until the president-elect is sworn in in January 2017.

Donald Trump

    However, the continued increase in global crude oil supply next year is likely to hold back a number of agreements to increase global oil inventories until 2018. Globally, inventory development next year will average 400,000 BPD.

"Although crude oil production will be ready to enter the market when global oil inventories are at high levels, global economic data shows more positive expectations than before," the report said.

    The EIA report projects that there will be cuts in US crude oil production throughout 2017, though only by 100,000 bpd to 8.8 million bpd. Meanwhile, so far this year, US crude oil production is estimated to reach 8.9 million BPD. Whereas in 2015, US crude oil production reached 9.4 million BPD.

    Meanwhile, OPEC crude oil production is expected to be in the range of 33.2 million BPD next year. Apart from production cuts, there are also a number of problems, such as Nigeria's crude oil supply which is projected to weaken in line with militant attacks on oil infrastructure.

    Not only that but Libya is also projected not to reach an agreement in the short term with the Zintani militants who control the pipeline and transportation of crude oil from their large fields, including El Sharara and El Feel. However, in November, there was an increase in production, although not significantly, which almost reached 600,000 BPD. In November, a number of offshore oil fields in the North Sea Atlantic region such as England and Norway have been completed from the routine maintenance schedule.

    As a result, collective production from the North Sea increased by 100,000 BPD in November. The increase from the North Sea region, in the short term could weaken the price of Brent oil if it is with crude oil from the Middle East.

"With relatively lower shipping costs, weaker Brent oil prices will make crude oil produced from the Atlantic basin more competitive for Asian refineries, which are traditional markets for Middle Eastern oil producers," the report said.

    EIA estimates that the average Brent oil price so far this year will be at the level of US$ 43 per barrel. while the average Brent oil price next year is projected to reach US$ 52 per barrel. Meanwhile, the price of oil on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) market next year is estimated to be US$ 1 per barrel lower than the price of Brent oil. So, will Trump pump more right oil next year to create more jobs? Or will you participate in pushing up oil prices by holding back production? Let's just wait.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Thursday, Dec 8, 2016

Oil Prices have the opportunity to go up

Minister of Finance (Menkeu) Sri Mulyani said the opportunity for an increase in world oil prices after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decision to cut production is still in the range of 50 percent. Sri Mulyani projected that even if there was an increase in oil prices, it would not have occurred significantly. 

    Sri explained, after OPEC's decision to cut crude oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million barrels per day (bpd), questions will arise, whether from the demand or demand side, it will match the cuts made.

The former managing director of the World Bank said that with the adjustment of the European economic climate due to Brexit and the referendum in Italy, the demand for oil from European countries could change. Not to mention, the economic policy of the United States (US) under Donald Trump. This means that production cuts coupled with low demand have not been able to significantly boost oil prices.

In general, Sri believes that the Indonesian oil price assumption (ICP) set in the 2017 State Budget (APBN) of US $ 45 per barrel is still relevant despite OPEC's production cuts.

Moreover, Indonesia has chosen to temporarily freeze its membership because it is impossible for Indonesia to participate in cutting production. The Coordinating Minister for the Economy Darmin Nasution said that OPEC's steps to cut production still had to be seen on its effectiveness. 

    The risk from price increases that could occur is of course anticipated by the Government of Indonesia. Bank Mandiri Chief Economist Anton Gunawan added that the potential for an increase in world oil prices still depends on the dynamics of the demand side.

The reason is that US shale gas production continues to overshadow world oil prices, which are starting to rise. He said that when the oil price starts to reach 70 US dollars per barrel, shale gas production may be increased and the oil price will be on hold again. 

    The net increase in world oil prices has an effect on the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN), especially if the government is consistent with not general subsidies, it will not be affected by the spending side. Mostly in the form of direct subsidies. Hence, with this, there is a windfall game. The only effect might be that if the government increases the price of fuel, it will have an effect on inflation.

Republika, Page-13, Wednesday, Dec 7, 2016

Indonesia Temporarily Freezes OPEC Membership

    Indonesia decided to temporarily suspend membership in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The decision was taken at OPEC's 171st Session in Vienna, Austria, Wednesday (30/11). 

    Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Minister Ignasius Jonan said the freezing step was taken after the court's decision to cut crude oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day, excluding condensate. The session also asked Indonesia to cut about 5 percent of its production or around 37 thousand barrels per day.

    Even though the need for state revenue is still large and in the 2017 Draft State Budget it is agreed that oil production in 2017 will decrease by 5 thousand barrels compared to 2016, "said Jonan.

    Thus, the cut that Indonesia can accept is 5 thousand barrels per day. Jonan added that as a net oil importer country, this production capacity cut is not profitable for Indonesia, because the oil price will theoretically rise. With this membership suspension, Indonesia has twice frozen its membership in OPEC. The first freeze was in 2008, effective 2009.

    Indonesia decided to return to being active as a member of OPEC in early 2016. This temporary suspension is the best decision for all OPEC members. Because thus the decision to cut 1.2 million barrels per day can be carried out, and on the other hand Indonesia is not bound by the decisions taken, in line with Indonesia's national interests. Member of Commission VII of the House of Representatives (DPR) Kurtubi, supports the government's move to temporarily suspend membership in OPEC.

    This policy reflects the current condition of Indonesia. The government does not want to reduce lifting. Kurtubi said that Indonesia's crude oil production trend has never been achieved. This is due to the lack of exploration activities as well as mature domestic oil wells. 

    He said that without a decision to cut production at the OPEC session, Indonesia's oil production actually decreased from year to year. Without being told to reduce the production target, it is difficult to achieve because our production trend is down.

    He said that the temporary suspension of status did not mean that Indonesia would leave OPEC's membership. That way Indonesia can still cooperate with OPEC member countries.

    The Executive Director of the ReforMiner Institute, Komaidi Notonegoro, added that cutting or increasing oil production is one of the policies commonly carried out by OPEC. Indonesia must be careful in responding to this policy. He said the decision to freeze membership was a natural gesture.

    Komaidi said that his party has not seen the benefits of Indonesia's membership in OPEC. He said the benefits of being a member were limited to price information. According to him, the temporary suspension of status is not detrimental to Indonesia. This is because Indonesia can still cooperate with oil-producing countries outside of OPEC's membership, such as Russia and the United States. A country like this must be the concern of Indonesia to obtain oil and gas.

    Energy observer from Trisakti University Pri Agung Rakhmanto said the suspension of membership status allowed Indonesia to concentrate more on fixing oil and gas management in Indonesia. The government will often face OPEC decisions that differ from Indonesia's interests. He explained that OPEC's decision to cut oil production currently differs from Indonesia's interests, which in fact have to increase production to sustain state revenues.

    Pri Agung said that the membership suspension will have little effect on the downstream oil sector. This means that it can reduce direct access and cooperation with OPEC members in the procurement or import of crude oil and fuel oil (BBM) and the construction of refineries. 

    The domestic oil and gas industry, especially the upstream sector, will have no effect. Meanwhile, world crude oil prices rose about 8 percent in trading Wednesday US time after the major world oil producers who are members of OPEC for the first time since 2008 agreed to cut their crude production in order to raise oil prices which have continued to fall recently.

    This production cut, as quoted by Antara, would put OPEC's oil production below the current level of 33.64 million barrels per day. Non-OPEC country, Russia also agreed to cut oil production to 300,000 barrels per day. OPEC will meet with non-OPEC oil producers on December 9. 

    The West Texas Intermediate benchmark oil price for January delivery rose the US $ 3.93 to the US $ 49.16 per barrel. Meanwhile, the price of Brent oil for shipment in January rose the US $ 3.73 to the US $ 50.11 per barrel, or an increase of 8 percent. February shipments rose 8.8 percent to the US $ 51.48 per barrel. Kuwait, Venezuela, and Algeria agreed to monitor compliance with the OPEC agreement.

Investor Daily, Page-9, Friday, Dec 2, 2016

Oil Prices are Vulnerable to Down

Disputes among OPEC members over the implementation of crude oil production cuts as a follow-up to the agreement agreed in Algeria last month hampered cooperation with other producers. As a result, oil prices are increasingly vulnerable to falling. At the close of trading Friday (Oct 28) the price of the West Texas Intermediate, (WTI) December 2016 contract fell 1.02 points or 2.05% to US$ 48.7 per barrel.

The price of the Brent oil contract in December 2016 fell 0.76 points or 1.51% to US$ 49.71 per barrel. Brazil's Oil and Gas Minister Marcio Felix said oil-producing countries, both OPEC and non-OPEC, ended talks at yesterday's meeting without any commitments. The reason is, the results of the process of limiting production depend on the steps of Iran and Iraq. Iran and Iraq want to be exempt from production cuts because they both need funds due to militant attacks.

Previously, other member countries such as Libya and Nigeria would not participate in production restrictions due to their oil industry which had been disrupted since the beginning of the year. Non-OPEC countries such as Oman have stated that they are not willing to cooperate in cutting production until OPEC has an internal agreement of its own.

An optimistic view was expressed by Deputy Energy Minister of Kazakhstan, Magzum Mirzagaliyev, who believed that Saturday's meeting (Oct 29) was the first successful step for dialogue between OPEC and non-OPEC.

The meeting also indicated how many countries are ready to contribute to the OPEC meeting on November 30. Russia also insists they are only willing to freeze production, not cut it. This is done on the condition that OPEC has reached an internal agreement. The largest non-OPEC producer produces crude at around 11.1 million barrels per day. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo warned of consequences if producers did not follow through on the agreement in Algeria.

The price of WTI is hovering around the level of US$50 per barrel as the market is still waiting for OPEC's stance in the meeting held on November 30. Earlier at the September Z8 meeting in Algeria, OPEC agreed to cut output by around 700,000 barrels to 32.5-33 million barrels per day. World Energy data shows that last Saturday's meeting involving Azerbaijan, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Oman, and Russia produced around 19.6 million barrels per day or about 21 percent.

This figure is half the production of 14 OPEC member countries. Standard Chartered in its research publication, explained that the right moment to establish cooperation in stabilizing the oil market was at the OPEC meeting on November 30, 2016. Outside OPEC, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he supports OPEC and is ready to participate in cutting production. Rumors emerged that Putin wanted a freeze rather than a production cut.

Libya and Nigeria plan to boost production after their mining industry activities were disrupted by terrorist attacks. Libya is estimated to be able to produce 560,000 barrels per day or 200,000 barrels higher than the production in September 2016. The political environment that is still unstable still allows the production process to experience obstacles again. 

In Nigeria, production levels can be boosted up to 1.8 million barrels per day. As of September 2016, crude oil yields were 1.4 million barrels per day. Bob Yawger, director of the Futures Division of Mizuho Securities USA Inc., said OPEC's move was a wishy-washy move to cut production.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Monday, Oct 31, 2016

World Bank Raises Oil Price Projection

The World Bank yesterday raised its forecast for oil prices in 2017 as members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) prepare to limit their production. In its latest quarterly commodity market outlook report, the agency estimated that crude oil prices in 2017 would reach US $ 55 per barrel, up from the July estimate of US $ 53.

"We expect a strong increase in energy prices, led by oil, next year," said John Baffes, lead author of the report.

He added the forecast was under significant uncertainty as markets were expecting the details and execution of the OPEC agreement. OPEC announced that in late September is intended to reduce production to 32.50 million bpd from the current 33.24 million bpd, but details will be discussed when members meet again next month in Vienna.

Media Indonesia, Page-17, Saturday, Oct 22, 2016

Oil Prices Are Still In A Positive Trend

    The price of crude oil remains at the level of US $ 50 per barrel amidst the growing issue of production restrictions. However, the decline in stocks of the United States (US) as well as the hope of rising demand in the winter, may be able to support the price of black gold.

    Quoting Bloomberg, Friday (21 / October) at 16.00 WIB, the price of WTI oil for December 2016 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.41 percent to the US $ 50.65 per barrel. In the last week, the price of oil rose 0.17%.

Putu Agus Pransuamitra, Research, and Analyst at PT Monex Investindo Futures explained that oil prices were hit by profit-taking before rising at the weekend.

    According to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, US oil stocks fell 5.2 million barrels last week. This figure is much better than the predicted increase of 2.2 million barrels. US oil stocks are now at their lowest level since January 2016. And, the EIA release caused oil prices to increase 2.4% to the US $ 52.85. Wednesday (19 / October). Market participants are still waiting for clarity on production restrictions, including Russia's willingness to join the plan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has pledged to support OPEC's efforts to limit production. However, the largest oil producer in the country, Rosneft, admits that it has the capacity to increase production by 4 million barrels per day if there is demand. Rosneft's statement made the market doubtful again about Russia's desire to cut oil production.

    Demand is improving which is clear that the issue of production restrictions will continue to affect oil prices before the OPEC meeting at the end of November. The prospect of further oil prices depends on production restrictions. Deddy Yusuf Siregar, an analyst at PT Asia Tradepoint Futures, is optimistic that oil prices will rebound in the near future.

    He saw that throughout last week the price of oil was weakening due to the strengthening of the US dollar index and the release of Baker Hughes, which noted that there were four additional new oil drills in Uncle Sam's country. However, the effect did not make oil prices plummet too deeply, as it was helped by increased demand towards the end of the year and winter.

Deddy said that oil production will decrease in the future. China's production during September 2016 then fell 9.8% compared to the same period in 2015.

"If the OPEC agreement to reduce production is carried out, maybe the oil price could be raised to the US $ 60 per barrel," said Deddy, projecting. In addition to decreasing production, Deddy assessed that the valuation of oil prices is getting better due to increased demand.

    Still from China, he believes that the country's economy with a giant wall has the potential to rebound. The industrial production rate only grew 6.1% and was lower than analyst predictions at 6.4%. However, the People's Bank of China noted that there were applications for new loans of 1.22 trillion yuan in September, better than the prediction of only 1 trillion yuan.

    Meanwhile, Putu predicts, the oil price will reach the US $ 55 per barrel by the end of the year, the important thing is that the agreement to limit oil production is reached. Moreover, the demand for oil is likely to increase ahead of winter. Technically, Deddy stated, oil prices were already above the 50 moving average (MA), MA 100, and MA 200 tended to strengthen. 

    Stochastic is also seen in the 54 areas. RSI is in the 59 areas and MACD is in the positive area. In the next week, he predicts, oil prices will strengthen at the US $ 49.20-US $ 52.20 per barrel. Putu's projection is that oil prices will strengthen in the range of US $ 49-US $ 52 per barrel.

Kontan, Page-5, Saturday, Oct 22, 2016

The World Bank Provides Positive Prospects

The agreement of oil-exporting countries to cut production makes the World Bank install a positive prospect of world oil prices next year. In the October 2016 Commodity Market Outlook (CMO) report, the World Bank predicted that world oil prices in 2017 would reach US $ 55 per barrel. The projection is up from the previous report which reached US $ 53 per barrel. For oil prices this year, the World Bank still maintains its projections at US $ 43 per barrel. 

"There will be a significant increase in prices of world commodity prices next year, where crude oil will be the leader of the increase,"

John Baffles, World Bank Senior Economist, Baffles said, his party saw the price of a number of energy commodities such as natural gas, coal, and crude oil would rise by 25% in 2017. The estimate was based on OPEC's decision at a meeting in Algeria last month. 

The world organization, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to cut world oil production by 700,000 barrels per day, from its normal production range of 33.24 million barrels per day. The price of a number of commodity products is predicted to rise due to an increase in global demand. Metal and mineral prices will rise 4.1% in 2017, up 0.5% from the previous prediction.

The close of a number of zinc mining giants in several countries has the opportunity to make a supply in the world decline. As a result, the price of these products will rise by 20% in 2017. The price of agricultural products is also predicted to rise by 1.4% next year. The only decline in prices occurred in gold. The price of gold in 2017 is projected to fall to US $ 1,219 per ounce. 

This was due to sentiment over the planned hike in the Fed's benchmark interest rate, which caused safe-haven asset purchasing activities to decline. 

"Low commodity prices have hit developing countries that rely on exports of natural products. However, we see that next year commodity prices will begin to recover, "said Ayhan Kose, Director of World Bank Development Prospects.

The World Bank asserted, next year uncertainty on the price and demand for commodity products, especially oil, is still haunted by uncertainty. Because Opec has not released details and official documents on the decision to cut world oil production released last month. 

In addition, there is no definite evidence related to the involvement of non-OPEC member countries to participate in limiting production, making the world oil prices' opportunity to fluctuate again. As is well known, the most influential non-member countries of OPEC namely Russia have declared themselves to be involved in the policy of limiting oil production.

Vladimir Putin

The declaration was expressed by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself at the Energy World Congress meeting in Istanbul earlier this month. However, Putin's remarks were immediately opposed by Russia's biggest oil producer, Rosneft. 

Rosneft 

In his official statement, Chief Executive Rosneft Igor Sechin refused to join the government in limiting production. As is known, Rosneft accounts for 40% of Russia's oil production. Rosneft produces 4.1 million barrels per day.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-3, Saturday, Oct 22, 2016.

Indonesia Proposes OPEC Governor Change

The Government of Indonesia proposes the replacement of officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries / OPEC. At present Widhyawan Prawiraatmdja is the OPEC Governor of Indonesia.

The one appointed to replace Widhyawan was Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa. Secretary-General of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Teguh Pamudji confirmed the proposal to change the position of OPEC Governor from Indonesia.

He said the proposal had been officially chosen by the Acting Minister (Acting) of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan. Teguh said that the proposal from the Indonesian government was not necessarily approved by OPEC but rather had to go through a series of processes that would begin at the end of November. He said OPEC had the authority to reject the proposed change.

If the proposal is rejected then Widhyawan could still hold the position of OPEC Governor or ask the Government of Indonesia to nominate another candidate.

"If it is approved, the OPEC session will immediately be replaced. Inaugurated December 1, ".

Teguh claimed not to know about the change of OPEC Governor official. He only mentioned the rotation of positions is a natural thing.

"I don't know the background. The important thing is certainly the needs of the organization, ".

Widhyawan served as OPEC Governor from Indonesia after all OPEC members approved the proposal from the then Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Sudirman Said. The discussion and determination of Widhyawan was at the 168th OPEC session on December 4, 2015 in Vienna, Austria. Purbaya currently serves as Special Staff to the Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs.

He has a Doctorate in economics from Purdue University, Indiana, United States. He also served as a special staff for the Coordinating Minister for the Economy in the era of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. In addition, he also served as Director of PT Danareksa. At the beginning of Joko Widodo's administration, Purbaya served as Deputy III in the Management of Strategic Issues in the Presidential Staff Office.

Investor Daily, Page- 9, Monday, Oct 17, 2016

Die Roadshow zwischen der OPEC und Russland reist zu Ölkürzungsgesprächen nach Wien

Die Bemühungen der Organisation der erdölexportierenden Länder (OPEC), die Zusammenarbeit von Nichtmitgliedern bei einem globalen Abkommen zur Eindämmung der Rohölproduktion sicherzustellen, werden von Istanbul nach Wien fortgesetzt, wobei Russland an Bord ist, aber die internen Unterschiede hinsichtlich der Aufteilung der Kürzungslast zunehmen.

Russland ist bereit, an einem „technischen Austausch“ teilzunehmen, um am 29. Oktober einen Fahrplan für die Ölförderung in der österreichischen Hauptstadt festzulegen, sagte Energieminister Alexander Novak am Mittwoch gegenüber Reportern.

Alexander Novak

Die Gespräche in Istanbul waren positiv und die Zusammenarbeit zwischen Mitgliedern der OPEC und anderen Herstellern ist mittlerweile gut etabliert, sagte Katars Energieminister Mohammed Al Sada.

Mohammed Al Sada

"Es braucht mehr als die OPEC, um den Markt zu stabilisieren - es gibt eine Erkenntnis, dass andere große Akteure ihre Arbeit erledigen müssen", sagte der US-Energieminister Suhail Mohammed Al Mazrouei in einem Interview mit Bloomberg Television.

Suhail Mohammed Al Mazrouei 

Die OPEC hat ihre Hauptaufgabe in Istanbul erfüllt, als die beiden größten Ölproduzenten Russlands sagten, sie würden alle Anweisungen der Regierung zur Eindämmung der Ölproduktion befolgen, nachdem Präsident Wladimir Putin am Montag einen Liefervertrag unterstützt hatte.

Damit bleibt der Erfolg oder Misserfolg eines Abkommens, an dem die Produzenten des halben Öls der Welt beteiligt sind, in den Händen eines OPEC-Ausschusses, der später in diesem Monat zusammentreten wird, um Streitigkeiten darüber beizulegen, wie viel Venezuela und der Irak pumpen sollen.

Mohammed Barkindo

"Wir sind von den Verpflichtungen Russlands überzeugt", sagte OPEC-Generalsekretär Mohammed Barkindo in einem Interview mit Bloomberg Television vor dem Treffen in Istanbul am Mittwoch.

Das Ausmaß der internen Hindernisse, die die OPEC überwinden muss, wurde am Mittwoch bekannt gegeben, als die jüngsten Produktionsschätzungen der Gruppe einen Meinungsunterschied von einer halben Million Barrel darüber zeigten, wie viel zwei Schlüsselmitglieder pumpen. 

    Die eigenen Zahlen Venezuelas und des Irak darüber, wie viel Rohöl sie im September produzierten, lagen deutlich über den Schätzungen der OPEC aus sogenannten Sekundärquellen. Die beiden Nationen bestreiten die Daten, die das Produktionsziel für jedes Land bestimmen könnten, wenn im November Obergrenzen für die Produktion der Mitglieder festgelegt werden.

Minister aus einigen der größten Ölförderländer versammelten sich diese Woche in der Türkei, um Möglichkeiten zur Beendigung einer zweijährigen Versorgungsschwemme zu erörtern. Mit einem Referenz-Brent-Rohölhandel von rund 52 US-Dollar pro Barrel weniger als der Hälfte seines Preises Mitte 2014 stehen die Produzenten weiterhin unter starkem wirtschaftlichem Druck.

Nach der überraschenden Umkehrung der Politik der OPEC, im vergangenen Monat in Algier ohne Einschränkungen zu pumpen, bemühte sich die Gruppe um die Zusammenarbeit anderer Nationen, insbesondere Russlands.

Khalid Al-Falih

Der saudi-arabische Energie- und Industrieminister Khalid Al-Falih verließ die Türkei am Dienstag, nachdem er bereits die Unterstützung von Putin erhalten hatte, der sagte, der weltweit größte Energieexporteur sei "bereit, sich an gemeinsamen Maßnahmen zur Begrenzung der Produktion zu beteiligen".

Der russische Präsident bekräftigte am Mittwoch in Moskau, dass er kein Problem haben würde, die Produktion auf dem derzeitigen Niveau einzufrieren, wenn sich die OPEC-Mitglieder verpflichten, obwohl er sagte, es sei sinnlos, über eine Kürzung zu sprechen. Vertreter der VAE, Katars, Algeriens, Venezuelas, Russlands, Gabuns und Mexikos trafen sich am Mittwoch mit Barkindo zu weiteren Konsultationsgesprächen.

Vladimir Putin

Putin "bestätigte seine feste Position zur Erholung des Ölmarktes und der Preise", sagte Venezuelas Präsident Nicolas Maduro im staatlichen Fernsehen und kommentierte ein Gespräch zwischen den beiden in Istanbul diese Woche. Die OPEC hat in Algier eine neue Produktionspalette von 32,5 bis 33 Millionen Barrel pro Tag vereinbart, verglichen mit einer Rekordproduktion von 33,75 Millionen Barrel pro Tag im September.

Obwohl die allgemeinen Grundsätze des Abkommens vorhanden sind, könnte seine Umsetzung eine Herausforderung darstellen. Die Einzelheiten zur Reduzierung des Angebots müssen bis zur nächsten Sitzung der Gruppe am 30. November in Wien festgelegt werden. Ein Ausschuss wurde eingerichtet, um herauszufinden, wie andere Mitglieder die Last teilen werden.

Jakarta Post, Page-17, Friday, Oct 14, 2016.

OPEC Asked to Maintain Oil Prices Above US $ 50

CNBC news agency survey results say oil prices are expected to rise to an average of US $ 50 per barrel in the IV quarter of this year. Respondents expect the role of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in maintaining prices above the US $ 50 per barrel. They assess the price increase depends on the realization of the OPEC meeting results to cut production from the end of November.

This survey involved 31 respondents consisting of analysts, economists, and commodity exports. The results of a published survey said the respondents predicted the average price of crude oil of US $ 49.6 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2016, or an increase compared to the US $ 47 per barrel on average in the third quarter.

On September 28, OPEC agreed to cut oil production to 32.5 million barrels per day. At present, the OPEC production range is 33-33.2 million barrels per day. Pemotomgan will be the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.

According to Johannes Benigni, an analyst with JBC Energy, although the OPEC agreement at the end of September was only temporary, it gave a positive sentiment to raise oil prices by 10 percent. Benchmark prices for crude oil reached their highest level in the past year on October 10, which was 51.38 per barrel.

"OPEC has succeeded in providing short-term positive sentiment,"

Most respondents rated OPEC as having difficulties in realizing their commitments. An analyst from Commerz bank, Eugen Weinberg, said the agreement to cut OPEC's production was only profitable in the short term, but detrimental later. Because rising oil prices will provide incentives for non-OPEC oil-producing countries to increase supply in the market.

This condition will push back the market balance in the second half of 2017. OPEC member countries held a meeting in Istanbul, Turkey, on Wednesday local time. Reuters news agency said the ministers of OPEC countries had arrived in Turkey since Tuesday. The meeting will discuss the details of the agreement on production for at least six months, along with Russian support for the plan.

Last month the OPEC meeting was held in Algeria. OPEC has 14 members, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Venezuela. Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy, Khalid al-Falih, said there were many countries outside OPEC that were willing to join the plan.

"We are not only talking about support, but also the issue of contribution. Representatives of OPEC and non-OPEC countries are scheduled to attend. Among them were representatives of Russia, Azerbaijan and Mexico. 

Mohammed Barkindo

    OPEC Secretary-General, Mohammed Barkindo, said whatever agreement would be reached would be valid for six months and then be re-evaluated.

"We are sure that non-OPEC countries will join us. Because it benefits everyone ".

Eulogio Del Pino

Eulogio Del Pino, Venezuelan Oil Minister, hoped that the agreement would be valid for a year. Because of the peak production of oil-producing countries varies in time. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the decline in global oil supply could go hand in hand with demand if OPEC and Russia agreed to cut production significantly. But it is unclear how quickly the decline in production could accompany the decline in demand.

Koran Tempo, Page-18, Thursday, Oct 13, 2016