Pertamina EP spends big to boost output

Oil and gas firm Pertamina EP a subsidiary of state-owned energy giant Pertamina, has increased its capital expenditure for this year by nearly 50 percent to support its aggressive plan to develop new oil and gas blocks across the country.

Nanang Abdul Manaf, the company’s exploration and new discovery project director, said the company had allocated US$ 778 million in capital expenditure for 2017, up 46.2 percent compared to last year’s Figure.

At present, the company is working to get approval from the Upstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Special Task Force (SKK Migas) for its plans of development (POD) for five new blocks, namely the Bambu Besar and Akasia Bagus blocks in West Java, the Tapen block in Central Java, the Benggala block in North Sumatra and the Bunyu block in North Kalimantan.

“We expect that the‘POD for those five blocks can be approved by April so we can start develop- ing them the following month,” Nanang said on Wednesday. 

The Bambu Besar, Akasia Bagus and Tapen blocks are projected to reach their peak production in 2018, while two others are slated for 2019. SKKMigas has recently granted Pertamina EP approval for the POD of the Jati Asri block in West Java. There are seven development wells at the block, each will need between $100 million and $150 million to finance, among other things, drilling activities and facility upgrades. Each well is expected to produce 500 barrels of oil per day (bopd).

“Most of our development plans are located in our Asset 3 areas [in West Java] Hence, we expect the production from those areas to increase to around 15,000 to 17,000 bopd from the current range of 9,500 to 10,000 bopd,” Nanang went on.

Moreover, gas production from such new wells is also aimed at meeting the growing demand for gas in West Java, which currently has a gas shortfall of around 71 million cubic feet ayear. In total, ‘Pertamina EP aims to undertake development drilling activities at 48 wells in 2017. lt expects to produce 85,000 bopd and 1,041 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) of gas by year end, up slightly from the production of 83,674 bopd and 989 mmscfd last year.

The upward trend has been triggered by the recent surge in global oil prices. As a result, the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) is expected to be at an average of $50 per barrel in 2017, up from $39 per barrel last year. Therefore, Pertamina EP is upbeat it can book $596 million in net profits throughout 2017, a slight increase from $590 million recorded last year.

The company is putting high hopes on its gas blocks in the areas of Asset 2 in South Sumatra, which have a production capacity of around 350 mmscfd of gas, and Asset 3 in West Java, which are able to produce around 250 mmscfd of gas, to be the backbone its financial success in 2017.

Moreover, Pertamina EP is currently speeding up the development of the Donggi and Matindok blocks in Central Sulawesi. The Donggi block has been on stream since April 2016 with a capacity of 50 mmscfd of gas, while the Matindok block is expected to be at its peak production of 55 mmscfd of gas in April this year. The development of these two blocks will cost Pertamina EP a total of $696.2 million. The firm also expects to see its Paku Gajah block in South Sumatra on stream starting from April, with an output capacity of 45 mmscfd of gas and 1,100 bopd of condensate.

“lf the oil price gets better from one day to another, we might be able to be more aggressive in our overall activities,” Nanang said. Following the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) decision to cut output by 1.2 million bopd in 2017, energy think-tank Wood Mackenzie has predicted that the annual crude price average will stand between $53 and $58 per barrel.

It may further increase to $60 to $65 per barrel by May if non-OPEC members meet their commitments to trim output by 558,000 bopd.

 Jakarta Post, Page-15, Friday, March, 24, 2017

New Pertamina boss promises internal unity

Reassuring the House of Representatives that infighting with in state-owned oil and gas giant PT Pertamina will not happen again may not be an easy task. However,  newly minted president director Elia Massa Manik confidently told lawmakers that he could nurture enough unity to lead the country’s key asset to a better future.

In his first meeting with tough-talking legislators from Commission VII overseeing energy on Thursday, Elia did not back down from his vision of creating solidarity within the board of directors, which is seen as essential to help Pertamina achieve its goal as a world class energy company by 2025.

“We are currently conducting internal consolidations and nurturing transparency in order to create a solid team,” said Elia, who is the former president director of state-owned plantation firm PT Perkebunan Nusantara III (PTPN III). “If we cannot become a solid unit, then we cannot teach our subordinates to do the same, and in doing so, we will not be able to accelerate [Pertamina] to where we want it to go. If we cannot become a solid unit, I will have failed.”

Elia was brought in last week following the dismissal of president director Dwi Soetjipto and his deputy Ahmad Bambang last month because of the lack of teamwork and escalating conflict that stems from equal authority given to the latter by State Owned Enterprises (SOE) Minister Rini Soemarno.

The infighting raised concerns that Pertaminas management had become sloppy right when the country's sole state-owned oil and gas company had been handed several crucial tasks.

Earlier this year, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo ordered Pertamina to ensure that the fuel would be sold at the same price in Papua as in Java as well as selling gas at a loss to help priority industrial sectors boost their competitiveness.

Pertamina is also preparing to take over the management of the gas-rich Mahakam Block from a local unit of French Total SA next year and implementing its grand plan to construct and upgrade several major refineries worth billions of dollars. Moreover, in the long term, the firm will acquire overseas oil and gas assets to enable it to procure 473,000 barrels of oil per day amid dwindling domestic reserves.

Apart from creating a unified front among the board of directors, Elia also expressed his desire to shape Pertamina’s workforce to be more flexible and to move from upstream to downstream divisions and vice versa.

This was essential, he claimed, in order to ensure that those who eventually came up through the ranks had management skills for any division, which is necessary in a world class energy company. Meanwhile, Commission VII has called on Elia to stick to his word as it prepared plans for the company which it hopes will be strengthened by the upcoming revision of the 2001 Oil and Gas Law.

“In the upcoming Oil and Gas Law, there is a great possibility that Pertamina’s position will be even stronger than it is now, and so it must be able to adapt [to its new role] this includes everyone from the senior vice presidents to the managers,” lawmaker Ramson Siagian said.

The Commission is considering the possibility of including the creation of an oil and gas holding entity led by Pertamina in the Oil and Gas Law revision.

the holding company will ln clude the Upstream Gil and Gas Regulatory Special Task Force (SKK Migas) and the Downstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Agency (BPH Migas), which is currently in charge of upstream contract negotiation and map fuel distribution in the country.

 Jakarta Post, Page-13, Friday, March, 24, 2017

Open Access Pipe Boost Pertagas Performance

A subsidiary of PT Pertamina, PT Pertamina Gas (Pertagas) achieved net profit of US $ 159.1 million. 2017, the company is optimistic it will achieve ebih good performance, especially with the completion of three projects open access pipeline segment.

"In 2016 we managed to increase profit by 5.3% from US $ 151 million to $ 159 million," said President Director of PT Pertamina Gas Toto Nugroho in a written statement in Jakarta, Thursday (23/3).

Both in terms of financial performance could not be separated from the stable operating performance that are listed. Over the past year, Pertagas succeeded in increasing the volume of commercial gas from 46 425 BBTU (Billion British Thermal Unit) in 2015 to 51 814 BBTU. Increased speed is also listed with the volume of re-gasified LNG from 25 780 in 2015 to 29 907 BBTU BBTU. In addition Pertagas also succeeded in transporting the gas of 522.1 BSCF (Billion Standard Cubic Feet) and process gas into LPG amounted to 123 259 tons throughout 2016.

This achievement, according Toto is a pride for all human Pertagas where in this new Pertagas even 10 years old. "Especially in the kind of company profits tend to decrease," he said. Toto's hope in 2017, it could improve the performance of the company anymore. "Especially with the completion of three projects segment of pipe open access".

Three major projects that have been completed are the segments Belawan - Regions Industries in Medan (KIM) - Special Economic Zones (SEZ) in North Sumatra along 136.8 km; segment Muara Karang - Muara Tawar (MK-MT) along the 32 km crossing from Jakarta to Bekasi, West Java; and Porong - RoW which stretches along 56 Km of Sidoarjo regency to Pasuruan in East Java.

In terms of investment in 2016 Pertagas has recorded record value of US $ 168.6 million, the value is used for business development and investment projects to improve reliability of existing assets. Forward aggressiveness in 2016 in developing the business, in 2017 it Pertagas continue construction projects such as roads Gresik gas pipeline project - Semarang, the gas pipeline project segment Grissik - PUSRI, gas pipeline Looping Gresik - PKG, and domestic gas network in eight cities.

Toto asserted, as a form of real contribution to the improvement of national economic growth, the main focus is to prepare as soon as possible Pertagas gas infrastructure. "Hopefully gas supply from producers to consumers more easily," concludes Toto.

April fuel prices

Meanwhile, the government is evaluating the price of fuel oil (BBM) the type of gasoline and diesel subsidies. Changes or pricing of both types of fuel are conducted every three months. In January 2017 then, solar subsidies are set unchanged Rp 5,150 per liter. Then premium assignment (outside the Java-Madura-Bali) to Rp 6,450 per liter. Marketing Director of Pertamina M. Iskandar said it had reported to the government regarding the condition of the world oil price movements. But he has not dared to make sure the fuel price adjustment.

"Actually, from January deficit, the benchmark price of US $ 40 per barrel. But the price of oil is US $ 50 per barrel," Iskandar said in Jakarta, Thursday (23/3). Iskandar explains the rise in world oil prices affect the economics of solar. He said the oil price movements that make solar economical price range between USD 8200-8300 per liter.

Similar things affect the economic price of gasoline 88 RON premium Economical Price assignments between USD 6750-6850 per liter. He said, the price refers to the calculation formula set by the government. But Alexander did not mention the proposed changes in prices for diesel fuel and premium subsidies. Although hope there is a price adjustment, he leaves it up to the government. "Pertamina remains appropriate formula, appropriate economic price. That's our proposal as a business entity," he said.

In early January, the government decided there was no change in fuel price subsidies and assignment. This determination is based on the results of coordination across sectors and to consider three aspects, namely the financial capacity of the state or the economic situation, the ability of the community bell, as well as the real economy and society.

Determination per three months pursuant to Presidential Decree No. 191 of 2014 concerning Supply, distribution and retail prices of fuel oil. Then the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 27 Year 2016 concerning calculation of retail prices of fuel oil.

Minister of Mineral Resources to specify the price of fuel and the fuel type Specific Fuel Type Special Assignment. Changes or both types of fuel pricing was done taking into account the developments in oil prices, the average price index and the market value of the rupiah against the US dollar buying rate of Bank Indonesia.

IN INDONESIAN

Pipa Open Access Dongkrak Kinerja Pertagas

Anak perusahaan PT Pertamina, PT Pertamina Gas (Pertagas) meraih Iaba bersih sebesar US$ 159,1 juta. Tahun 2017, perseroan optimistis akan meraih kinerja ebih baik, terutama dengan telah selesainya 3 proyek ruas pipa open access.

“Tahun 2016 kami berhasil meningkatkan laba sebesar 5,3% dari US$ 151 juta menjadi US$ 159 juta," kata Direktur Utama PT Pertamina Gas Toto Nugroho dalam keterangan tertulis di Jakarta, Kamis (23/ 3).

Kinerja baik dari sisi keuangan tersebut tidak lepas dari stabilnya kinerja operasi yang dicatatkan. Sepanjang tahun lalu, Pertagas berhasil meningkatkan volume niaga gasnya dari 46.425 BBTU (Billion British Thermal Unit) pada 2015 menjadi 51.814 BBTU. Peningkatan lajunya juga dicatatkan melalui volume re-gasifikasi LNG dari 25.780 BBTU di 2015 menjadi 29.907 BBTU. Selain itu Pertagas juga berhasil mentransportasikan gas sebesar 522,1 BSCF (Billion Standard Cubic Feet) dan memproses gas menjadi LPG sebesar 123.259 Ton sepanjang tahun 2016.

Prestasi ini, menurut Toto menjadi kebanggaan tersendiri bagi seluruh insan Pertagas di mana pada tahun ini Pertagas baru genap berusia 10 tahun. “Apalagi di saat laba perusahaan sejenis cenderung mengalami penurunan," ujarnya. Toto berharap di tahun 2017 ini, pihaknya bisa meningkatkan lagi performa perusahaan. “Terlebih dengan telah diselesaikannya 3 proyek ruas pipa open access,”.

Tiga proyek besar yang telah dirampungkan tersebut yakni ruas Belawan - Kawasan lndustri Medan (KIM) - Kawasan Ekonomi Khusus (KEK) di Sumatera Utara sepanjang 136,8 Km; ruas Muara Karang - Muara Tawar (MK-MT) sepanjang 32 Km yang melintas dari DKI Jakarta hingga Bekasi, Jawa Barat; serta ruas Porong - Grati sepanjang 56 Km yang membentang dari Kabupaten Sidoarjo hingga Kabupaten Pasuruan di Jawa Timur.

Dari sisi investasi di tahun 2016 Pertagas telah mencatatkan membukukan nilai sebesar US$ 168,6 juta, nilai tersebut digunakan untuk proyek pengembangan bisnis dan investasi guna meningkatkan kehandalan aset eksisting. Meneruskan agresivitas pada 2016 dalam mengembangkan bisnis, pada 2017 ini Pertagas melanjutkan pembangunan proyek antara lain proyek pipa gas ruas Gresik - Semarang, proyek pipa gas ruas Grissik - PUSRI, pipa gas Looping Gresik - PKG, dan jaringan gas rumah tangga di 8 kota.

Toto menegaskan, sebagai bentuk kontribusi nyata bagi peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional, fokus utama Pertagas adalah mempersiapkan secepat mungkin infrastruktur gas. “Harapannya penyaluran gas dari produsen ke konsumen lebih mudah,” tutup Toto. 

Harga BBM April

Sementara itu, pemerintah sedang mengevaluasi harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) jenis premium dan solar subsidi. Perubahan atau penetapan harga kedua jenis BBM tersebut dilakukan setiap tiga bulan sekali. Pada januari 2017 lalu, solar subsidi ditetapkan tidak berubah Rp 5.150 per liter. Kemudian premium penugasan (luar Jawa-Madura-Bali) Rp 6.450 per liter. Direktur Pemasaran Pertamina M. Iskandar mengatakan pihaknya sudah melaporkan kepada pemerintah terkait kondisi pergerakan harga minyak dunia. Namun dia belum berani memastikan adanya penyesuaian harga BBM tersebut.

"Sebenarnya dari Januari defisit, harga patokan US$ 40 per barel. Tapi harga minyaknya US$ 50 per barel," kata Iskandar di Jakarta, Kamis (23/ 3). Iskandar menjelaskan naiknya harga minyak dunia berpengaruh pada nilai keekonomian solar. Dia mengatakan, pergerakan harga minyak itu membuat harga keekonomian solar berkisar antara Rp 8.200 - 8.300 per liter.

Hal serupa pun berpengaruh pada harga keekonomian bensin RON 88. Harga keekonomian premium penugasan antara Rp 6.750 - 6.850 per liter. Dia mengatakan, harga tersebut mengacu pada formula perhitungan yang ditetapkan pemerintah. Namun Iskandar tidak menyebutkan usulan perubahan harga untuk solar subsidi dan premium. Meski berharap ada penyesuaian harga, dia menyerahkan keputusan itu kepada pemerintah. "Pertamina tetap sesuai formula, sesuai harga keekonomian. Itu usulan kami sebagai badan usaha," ujarnya. 

Pada awal januari, pemerintah memutuskan tidak ada perubahan harga BBM subsidi dan penugasan. Penetapan ini berdasarkan hasil koordinasi lintas sektor serta mempertimbangkan tiga aspek, yakni kemampuan keuangan negara atau situasi perekonomian, kemampuan daya bell masyarakat, serta ekonomi riil dan sosial masyarakat.

Penetapan per tiga bulan itu berdasarkan Peraturan Presiden No. 191 Tahun 2014 tentang Penyediaan, Pendistribusian dan Harga Jual Eceran Bahan Bakar Minyak. Kemudian Peraturan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral No. 27 Tahun 2016 tentang Perhitungan Harga Jual Eceran Bahan Bakar Minyak.

Menteri ESDM menetapkan harga jual BBM jenis BBM Tertentu dan Jenis BBM Khusus Penugasan. Perubahan atau penetapan harga kedua jenis BBM itu dilakukan memperhitungkan perkembangan harga minyak, rata-rata harga indeks pasar dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika dengan kurs beli Bank Indonesia.

 Investor Daily, Page-9, Friday, March, 24, 2017

Inpex Mandatory Makes Two Scenarios in Masela Block

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will also coordinate with the Ministry of Industry for Masela gas buyers

Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) ordered lnpex Masela Limited in order to make the two scenarios related to the production capacity and also the location of onshore refineries. The warrant has already been submitted last week. Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Arcandra Tahar said in the letter, the government decided that the preliminary front end engineering design (pre-FEED) remain to be done for the two capacities.

With so Inpex must perform pre-FEED for a capacity of 9.5 million tonnes per year or a million tons per annum (MTPA) plus 150 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD) and 7.5 MTPA plus 474 MMSCFD.

Inpex also has to do Pre FEED for two locations. Lnpex government has decided to conduct the Pre-FEED on the island of Aru and yamdena. Whereas in the previous letter Inpex asked for, so the government decided in advance of the location and the capacity before the Pre-FEED. "What basisnya requested a preliminary study? Evaluation of both. I've looked at the data to be a draw, if the island, two islands," said Arcandra, Wednesday (23/3).

By doing PreFEED at two locations and two capacities, Arcandra mention, the cost will not be too big. Costs incurred Pre-FEED will be included in the cost recovery. "The cost of its small, not too big. Even better, more cost offer, benefit more," said Arcandra without mentioning the PreFEED costs.

With this decision, Arcandra requested that Inpex could soon start Pre FEED. The government is targeting the six months to do PreFEED for two capacities and two locations. In Pre FEED, Inpex will be looking for a buyer of gas that will be produced by the Masela block.

One of them, through the Ministry of Industry (Kemeneperin). The Ministry of Industry has stated previously, the buyer for the block "Masela of fertilizer and petrochemical sectors. The government will also seek the help Inpex gas buyers if PreFEED already begun. "Start Pre FEED we engage the Ministry of Industry to build a start talking to who would buy gas," said Arcandra.

Inpex itself is not a lot of comments related to the government's decision. Senior Manager of Communication and Relations Inpex Usman Slamet just mentioned, Inpex just received a letter from the government's decision. "Indeed we received a letter from the Ministry yesterday morning," said Usman.

Inpex Masela as the operator in fact have filed five clauses for project Masela block, ie the refinery capacity additions liquified natural gas (LNG) of 7.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to 9.5 MTPA. Later additions to the contract for 10 years, the internal rate of return (IRR) of 15%, the cost recovery during the exploration period and a government license. Yet it has not been approved.

IN INDONESIAN

Inpex Wajib Membuat Dua Skenario di Blok Masela

Kementerian ESDM juga akan berkoordinasi dengan Kementerian Perindustrian untuk pembeli gas Masela

Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) memerintahkan kepada lnpex Masela Limited agar membuat dua skenario terkait kapasitas produksi dan juga lokasi kilang darat. Surat perintah tersebut sudah dikirimkan pada pekan lalu. Wakil Menteri ESDM, Arcandra Tahar bilang, dalam surat tersebut, pemerintah memutuskan agar preliminary front end engineering design (Pre-FEED) tetap dilakukan untuk dua kapasitas.

Dengan begitu Inpex harus melakukan Pre-FEED untuk kapasitas 9,5 juta ton per tahun atau million tons per annum (MTPA) plus 150 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) dan 7,5 MTPA plus 474 mmscfd.

Inpex juga harus melakukan Pre FEED untuk dua lokasi. Pemerintah memutuskan agar lnpex melakukan Pre-FEED di Pulau Aru dan Pulau Yamdena. Padahal dalam surat sebelumnya Inpex meminta, agar pemerintah memutuskan terlebih dahulu satu lokasi dan satu kapasitas sebelum melakukan Pre-FEED. "Apa basisnya minta studi awal? Evaluasi dua-duanya. Saya sudah melihat datanya harus imbang, kalau pulau, kedua pulau," kata Arcandra, Rabu (23/3).

Dengan melakukan PreFEED di dua lokasi dan dua kapasitas, Arcandra menyebutkan, biaya yang dikeluarkan juga tidak akan terlalu besar. Biaya yang dikeluarkan Pre-FEED ini akan masuk dalam cost recovery. " Biaya-nya Kecil, tidak terlalu besar. Lebih bagus, lebih cost offer, benefit lebih banyak," ujar Arcandra tanpa menyebutkan biaya PreFEED tersebut.

Dengan keputusan ini, Arcandra meminta agar Inpex bisa segera memulai Pre FEED. Pemerintah menargetkan enam bulan untuk melakukan PreFEED untuk dua kapasitas dan dua lokasi. Dalam Pre FEED, nantinya Inpex akan mencari pembeli gas yang akan diproduksi oleh Blok Masela. 

Salah satunya melalui Kementerian Perindustrian (Kemeneperin). Sebelumnya Kementerian Perindustrian telah menyatakan, adanya pembeli untuk blok”Masela dari Sektor pupuk dan Petrokimia. Pemerintah juga akan membantu Inpex mencari para pembeli gas jika PreFEED sudah dimulai. "Start Pre FEED kami engage Kementerian Perindustrian untuk membangun mulai bicara siapa yang akan membeli gasnya," kata Arcandra.

Inpex sendiri tidak banyak berkomentar terkait keputusan pemerintah tersebut. Senior Manager Communication and Relation Inpex Usman Slamet hanya menyebutkan, Inpex hanya menerima surat keputusan dari pemerintah. "Memang kami menerima Surat dari Kementerian kemarin pagi,"kata Usman.

Inpex selaku operator di Blok Masela sebenarnya telah mengajukan lima klausul untuk pengerjaan proyek blok Masela, yaitu penambahan kapasitas kilang liquified natural gas (LNG) dari 7,5 million ton per annum (MTPA) menjadi 9,5 MTPA. Kemudian penambahan kontrak selama 10 tahun, internal rate of return (IRR) 15%, cost recovery selama masa eksplorasi dan perizinan dari pemerintah. Namun itu semua belum disetujui.

Kontan, Page-14, Friday, March, 24, 2017

Steer clear of Political Price

Crude Oil

The practitioners and analysts are confident that the crude oil is also a political commodity. In global emerging markets such accord that to distinguish between political and economic price, there are limits on the level of 30 US dollars per barrel.

If the price is below 30 dollars per barrel, almost certainly it is a political price taking into account the average cost of oil production on land and offshore. Then, when suddenly the price of crude oil fell from the range of 120 dollars per barrel in 2014 to below 30 dollars, all convinced that it is the impact of the political imbroglio.

This argument is certainly justified, because at that time, one of the world's oil producers, the United States, the more serious boost production of shale oil. For the production of US shale gas, conventional crude oil producers to boost production so that the stock is abundant and the price drops dramatically. Today, crude oil prices continue to rise and away from the political price.

On Thursday (23/3), the price of WTI crude for delivery in May 2017 recorded 48.32 dollars a barrel, while Brent for delivery in May 2017 recorded 50.94 dollars per barrel.

    In the discussion and exposure to the analyst of PT Samuel Asset Management in Jakarta last week revealed, crude oil production is still rising. Likewise, the demand also increased, although growth slowed.

The question then is whether the price of crude oil will remain and whether the data is entered When paired with the global economic growth, crude oil demand growth turned out to be linear. That is, the growth of its crude needs to follow the trend of economic growth. The perpetrators of the oil sector and analysts believe that in the future, demand will continue to grow. With the increasing price trend away from political price, crude oil prices more economical.

Year price trend is expected to be in the range of 50-60 dollars per barrel, while the next year is in the range of 70 dollars per barrel. In the short term, it was difficult to see oil prices back to around 100 dollars per barrel. The increase in crude oil prices also began to hoist the prices of some commodities, ranging from coal, crude palm oil, until the rubber.

This is certainly good news for Indonesia which still rely on commodities exports it to shore. Improvements in commodity prices will also stimulate the real sector in the producing regions that have been slow due to falling commodity prices. Since the price of oil fell and followed the collapse of commodity prices, commodity-producing economy of many regions do not grow, even some of the minuses.

However, by examining global conditions, the direction of crude oil prices as a locomotive for other commodity prices remains to be seen. Although there are expectations of rising commodity prices, Indonesia still needs to be consistent to encourage downstream industries and manufacturing that is not dependent on the commodity sector.

IN INDONESIAN

Menjauhi Harga Politis

Para praktisi dan analis sangat yakin bahwa minyak mentah juga merupakan komoditas politik. Di pasar global muncul semacam kesepakatan bahwa untuk membedakan mana harga politis dan ekonomi, batasnya ada di level 30 dollar Amerika Serikat per barrel. 

Jika harganya di bawah 30 dollar AS per barrel, hampir pasti itu adalah harga politis dengan mempertimbangkan rata-rata biaya produksi minyak di darat dan di lepas pantai. Maka, ketika tiba-tiba harga minyak mentah jatuh dari kisaran 120 dollar AS per barrel pada 2014 hingga di bawah 30 dollar AS, semua yakin bahwa itu adalah dampak keruwetan politis. 

Argumen ini tentu beralasan, karena ketika itu, salah satu produsen minyak dunia, Amerika Serikat, makin serius menggenjot produksi shale oil. Untuk menekan produksi shale gas AS, produsen minyak mentah konvensional menggenjot produksi sehingga stok melimpah dan harganya turun drastis. Kini, harga minyak mentah terus naik dan menjauhi harga politis. 

Pada Kamis (23/3), harga minyak jenis WTI untuk kontrak pengiriman Mei 2017 tercatat 48,32 dollar AS per barrel, sementara Brent untuk kontrak pengiriman Mei 2017 tercatat 50,94 dollar AS per barrel.

Dalam diskusi dan paparan para analis PT Samuel Aset Manajemen di Jakarta pekan lalu terungkap, produksi minyak mentah masih terus meningkat. Demikian juga dengan permintaan yang juga meningkat walaupun pertumbuhannya melambat. 

Pertanyaannya kemudian, apakah harga minyak mentah itu akan tetap bertahan dan apakah masuk Jika disandingkan dengan data pertumbuhan ekonomi global, pertumbuhan kebutuhan minyak mentah ternyata linear. Artinya, pertumbuhan kebutuhan minyak mentah mengikuti tren pertumbuhan ekonomi. Para pelaku sektor minyak dan para analis yakin bahwa ke depan, permintaan akan tetap tumbuh. Dengan tren harga yang makin menjauhi harga politis, harga minyak mentah dunia makin ekonomis. 

Tahun tren harga diperkirakan akan berada di kisaran 50-60 dollar AS per barrel, sementara tahun depan ada di kisaran 70 dollar AS per barrel. Dalam jangka pendek ini, agak sulit melihat harga minyak kembali ke sekitar 100 dollar AS per barrel. Kenaikan harga minyak mentah juga mulai mengerek harga sejumlah komoditas, mulai dari batubara, minyak kelapa sawit mentah, hingga karet. 

Tentu ini kabar baik untuk Indonesia yang masih saja bertumpu pada komoditas-komoditas itu untuk menopang ekspor. Perbaikan harga komoditas juga akan mendorong sektor riil di daerah-daerah penghasil yang selama ini lesu akibat jatuhnya harga komoditas. Sejak harga minyak jatuh dan diikuti rontoknya harga komoditas, perekonomian banyak daerah penghasil komoditas tidak tumbuh, bahkan beberapa di antaranya minus.

Namun, dengan mencermati kondisi global, arah harga minyak mentah dunia sebagai lokomotif harga komoditas lain tetap perlu dicermati. Walaupun ada harapan harga komoditas beranjak naik, Indonesia tetap perlu konsisten untuk mendorong industri hilir dan manufaktur supaya tidak tergantung pada sektor komoditas.

Kompas, Page-17, Friday, March, 24, 2017

PetroChina Supplying Power Plant

PetroChina International Jabung Ltd. Ready delivers gas 5 million cubic feet per day of Golf South / West Betara to meet the needs of a gas power plant in Tanjung Jabung Barat, Jambi. 

PetroChina Jabung Ltd.

    Field Manager of PetroChina Jabung Ltd. John Halim said that the gas pipeline will be supplied if the power plant is ready. "Essentially, our supply is ready, just open the tap," he said.

John explained that the gas as much as 5 million cubic feet per day (MMSCFD) prepared it is subject to government approval is predicted to run power plants with a capacity of 25 megawatts (MW). 

SKK Migas

    According to him, the gas supply has been reserved by SKK Migas-PetroChina since 2012. However, during this time the untapped natural gas. "Our reserves of gas are expected to replace the supply from the Field Ripah broken recently for power plants operated by PT Tanjung Jabung Power," he said.

John said the current supply of the gas from Ripah volume continued to decline and is now no longer possible to be able to meet the plant's needs. PetroChina did not resume gas supply to Tanjung Jabung Power since Sunday (19/3) as the condition of flare gas from the field Ripah down naturally. Moreover, the rate of decline in gas production from the field Ripah also difficult to predict.

Cessation of gas supplies from the Field Ripah was not made suddenly but previously has been communicated formally to the manager of Gas Power Plant Tanjung Jabung Power, with intended also to the Regent Tanjung Jabung Barat.

Until now there were several gas purchase agreements signed by PetroChina with a number of companies to meet needs in the country. PetroChina gas allocating each 5 MMSCFD in Tanjung Jabung Barat and Tanjung Jabung Timur 10 MMSCFD to be managed at the provincial and district government through PT Jambi Jambi International Indoguna.

"All of the gas allocation as well as a form of awareness and contribution of SKK Migas-PetroChina to meet the gas demand in the regions concerned.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-30, Friday, March 24, 2017

lnpex Requested Begin Review the LNG Plant

The government requested that lnpex Corporation as operator Masela immediately conduct further studies in the construction of liquefied natural gas on land.

Block located in Iaut Arafuru, Maluku is managed by the master lnpex participation shares of 65% and Shell 35%. President Joko Widodo decided that the construction of liquefied natural gas Liquefied natural gas / LNG) on the ground in March 2016. In fact, the previous scheme carried floating LNG plant or offshore.

Since it was decided on the ground, the project LNG plant was not running yet because there are still some points that have not been agreed by lnpex. Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (EBDM) Arcandra Tahar said, the early stages of project design (pre-FEED) Masela LNG plant should have been able to do.

Pre-FEED study is a pre-defining the project which aims to estimate the cost of the investment and project construction schedule. According to him, lnpex should be able to start the pre-FEED although there are still some options pipeline gas production volumes, the capacity of the LNG plant and refinery. With the start of pre-FEED, the Ministry of Industry can begin to map out the company that will buy Masela gas pipeline. Besides processed into LNG, the government requested that the lnpex to allocate gas pipeline for the industry around the Masela block.

"Quickly if can. Start pre-FEED, we engage [include] the Ministry of Industry to build, began to speak who will buy gas, "he said, Wednesday (23/3). Arcandra rate, no more points can be negotiated with lnpex.

Meanwhile, Minister Ignatius Jonan had replied to a letter sent by lnpex since last week. lnpex previously sent a letter in February 2017 to ask for written answers associated with two things that must be decided before the pre-FEED be done. Two things must be decided before running pre-FEED the volume of gas pipeline and LNG plant capacity as well as the islands which will be the location of the refinery.

"There has been a letter. Have been sent since last week. "

There are two options for the production of pipeline gas and LNG. First, gas pipes and Masela 474 million cubic feet per day (MMSCFD) and 7.5 million tonnes of LNG per annum (MTPA). Second, the allocation of 150 MMSCFD gas pipeline and LNG capacity of 9.5 MTPA.

In addition, any refinery construction site there are two options namely the Aru Islands and yamdena. lnpex wants the two options it has produced at only one answer so that the time and cost can be saved. Therefore, lnpex proposed that a preliminary study is done before the pre-FEED.

On the other hand, Arcandra rate, the data both options must be complete to be able to make a decision. Preliminary study before the pre-FEED considered could not be used as a reference. Although there is a risk of greater cost, he considered, it would be better if each option supported by strong data.

"More benefitnya than did the [study], will not comprehensive. Must pre-FEED both. "

ALREADY RECEIVED

Senior Manager of Communications & Relations lnpex Indonesia Usman Slamet said it has

receiving letters and Minister Ignatius Jonan on Wednesday (23/3). However, he declined to give further details. "Indeed, we received a letter from the minister yesterday morning (22/3)," he said.

Previously, the Ministry of Industry is still looking for companies that are willing to buy the gas pipeline and Masela as currently estimated at 150 MMSCFD new industrial capabilities.

The Ministry of Industry has proposed to absorb 474 MMSCFD gas pipeline by three companies. However, the 200 MMSCFD gas of which is planned to be absorbed by PT Pertamina.

Director of Upstream Chemical Industry Ministry of Industry Muhammad Khayam said, after the industry requires only 150 MMSCFD gas pipeline. It was the beginning of the scheme assuming gas price meets the economic development of the petrochemical plants around USS4 per MMBtu.

Volume is expected to produce 1.8 million tons of methanol to produce polyethylene and polypropylene capacity of around 400,000 tonnes is equivalent to that will awaken in Bintuni Bay, Papua.

Although the volume of gas utilization plan for the industry declined, the Ministry of Industry will review and offer other companies the absorption of gas rose to 274 MMSCFD. Therefore, it would revise the proposed utilization of the gas pipeline and the Masela block.

Khayam call commitments gas buyers must be ensured in July 2017. Thus, he was offered to other companies who might be able to absorb Masela gas pipeline. Three companies are PT Pupuk Indonesia, PT Kaltim Methanol Industri and PT Elsoro Multi Pratama which later coupled PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk.

IN INDONESIAN

lnpex Diminta Mulai Kaji Kilang LNG

Pemerintah meminta agar lnpex Corporation sebagai operator Blok Masela segera melakukan kajian lanjutan dalam pembangunan kilang gas alam cair di darat.

Blok migas yang berlokasi di Iaut Arafuru, Maluku itu dikelola oleh lnpex yang menguasai saham partisipasi 65% dan Shell 35%. Presiden Joko Widodo memutuskan agar pembangunan kilang gas alam cair Liquified natural gas/LNG) di darat pada Maret 2016. Padahal, sebelumnya skema pembangunan kilang LNG dilakukan terapung atau lepas pantai.

Sejak diputuskan di darat, proyek kilang LNG itu belum berjalan karena masih ada beberapa poin yang belum disepakati oleh lnpex. Wakil Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (EBDM) Arcandra Tahar mengatakan, tahap awal desain proyek (pre-FEED) kilang LNG Masela seharusnya sudah bisa dilakukan.

Pre-FEED merupakan kajian pra pendefinisian proyek yang bertujuan untuk mengestimasikan biaya investasi dan jadwal pengerjaan proyek. Menurutnya, lnpex seharusnya bisa memulai pre-FEED meskipun masih terdapat beberapa opsi volume produksi gas pipa, kapasitas kilang LNG, dan lokasi kilang. Dengan dimulainya pre-FEED, Kementerian Perindustrian bisa mulai memetakan perusahaan yang akan membeli gas pipa Masela. Selain diproses menjadi LNG, pemerintah meminta agar kepada lnpex untuk mengalokasikan gas pipa bagi industri di sekitar Blok Masela.

“Kalau bisa secepatnya. Start pre-FEED, kami engage [mengikutsertakan] Kementerian Perindustrian untuk membangun, mulai bicara siapa yang akan beli gasnya,” ujarnya, Rabu (23/3). Arcandra menilai, tidak ada lagi poin yang bisa dinegosiasikan dengan lnpex. 

Sementara itu, Menteri ESDM Ignasius Jonan telah membalas surat yang dikirim oleh lnpex sejak pekan lalu. lnpex sebelumnya mengirim surat pada Februari 2017 untuk meminta jawaban tertulis terkait dengan dua hal yang harus diputuskan sebelum pre-FEED bisa dilakukan. Dua hal yang harus diputuskan sebelum menjalankan pre-FEED yakni volume gas pipa dan kapasitas kilang LNG serta pulau yang nantinya menjadi lokasi kilang.

“Sudah ada suratnya. Sudah dikirim sejak minggu lalu.”

Ada dua opsi produksi gas pipa dan LNG. Pertama, gas pipa dan Blok Masela 474 juta kaki kubik per hari (MMscfd) dan kilang LNG 7,5 juta ton per tahun (MTPA). Kedua, alokasi gas pipa 150 MMscfd dan kapasitas kilang LNG 9,5 MTPA.

Selain itu, lokasi pembangunan kilang pun masih terdapat dua opsi yakni Pulau Aru dan Pulau Yamdena. lnpex menginginkan agar dua opsi itu sudah menghasilkan pada satu jawaban saja sehingga waktu dan biaya bisa dihemat. Oleh karena itu, lnpex mengusulkan agar cukup dilakukan kajian pendahuluan sebelum pre-FEED.

Di sisi lain, Arcandra menilai, data kedua opsi harus lengkap untuk bisa memberi keputusan. Kajian pendahuluan sebelum pre-FEED dianggap tidak bisa dijadikan acuan. Kendati terdapat risiko biaya yang lebih besar, dia menilai, akan lebih baik bila masing-masing opsi didukung dengan data yang kuat.

“Lebih banyak benefitnya daripada lakukan satu [kajian], nanti tidak komprehensif. Harus pre-FEED dua-duanya.”

SUDAH DITERIMA

Senior Manager Communication & Relation lnpex Indonesia Usman Slamet mengatakan, pihaknya telah

menerima surat dan Menteri ESDM Ignasius Jonan pada Rabu (23/3). Namun, dia enggan memberikan keterangan lebih lanjut. “Memang kami menerima surat dari Pak Menteri kemarin pagi (22/3),” katanya.

Sebelumnya, Kementerian Perindustrian masih mencari perusahaan yang bersedia membeli gas pipa dan Masela karena saat ini diperkirakan kemampuan industri baru 150 MMscfd.

Kementerian Perindustrian telah mengusulkan untuk menyerap 474 MMscfd gas pipa oleh tiga perusahaan. Namun, 200 MMscfd gas di antaranya rencananya akan diserap PT Pertamina.

Direktur Industri Kimia Hulu Kementerian Perindustrian Muhammad Khayam mengatakan, setelah industri hanya membutuhkan 150 MMscfd gas pipa. Hal itu merupakan skema awal dengan asumsi harga jual gas memenuhi keekonomian pengembangan pabrik petrokimia yakni sekitar USS4 per MMBtu.

Volume tersebut diperkirakan menghasilkan 1,8 juta ton metanol dengan kapasitas menghasilkan polietilena dan polipropilena sekitar 400.000 ton setara dengan yang akan terbangun di Teluk Bintuni, Papua.

Kendati rencana pemanfaatan volume gas bagi industri menurun, Kementerian Perindustrian akan mengkaji ulang dan menawarkan perusahaan lain agar penyerapan gas naik menjadi 274 MMscfd. Oleh karena itu, pihaknya akan merevisi usulan pemanfaatan gas pipa dan Blok Masela.

Khayam menyebut komitmen pembeli gas harus di pastikan pada Juli 2017. Dengan demikian, dia pun menawarkan kepada perusahaan lain yang mungkin bisa menyerap gas pipa Masela. Ketiga perusahaan itu PT Pupuk Indonesia, PT Kaltim Methanol Industri, dan PT Elsoro Multi Pratama yang nantinya ditambah PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk.

Dia menilai, dibutuhkan konsorsinun untuk menyerap gas yang nantinya akan dipimpin oleh PT Pupuk Indonesia.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-30, Friday, March, 24, 2017

Short Term, Oil Prices Still Bearish

Markets fear restrictions on oil production is not running

The decline in crude oil prices increasingly significant. Although already down streak in five days, analysts predict the price of black gold could still be weakened and could have an impact on the price of other commodities.

As at 17:23 pm, Wednesday (22/3), the price of light sweet crude contract in May 2017 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange plummeted 1.53% to US $ 47.56 per barrel compared to the previous day. Within a week, the price of oil has dropped 3.80%.

This decline affects the price of other energy commodities. The price of coal and natural gas contribute apparently corrected. Only palm oil are able to maintain its gains. "As a strategic commodity, if low oil prices, other commodity prices will also be lower," said Deddy Yusuf Siregar, Asia analyst Tradepoint

Futures.

As at 17:40 pm yesterday, the price of coal fell 2.01% to US $ 77.5 per metric ton from the previous day. Then the price of natural gas fell 1.16% to US $ 3,057 per mmbtu. While the price of CPO rose 12:28% to RM 2,817 per metric ton.

Even so, according to Deddy, not all energy commodities will continue to follow oil. He considered only the price potential natural gas continued to weaken during the first half of this year, following weakening oil prices. The reason winter is over will make the global natural gas demand increasingly difficult.

For coal, Deddy saw high demand from Asia-Pacific countries, such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, are still likely to lift prices.

CPO prices also can still ride. CPO demand normally rises ahead of Ramadan, because the middle eastern countries increase its palm oil stocks. Palm oil consumption will also increase. "Strengthening this time also supported by the potential decline in Malaysian palm oil production of about 1.4% in the month February, "said Deddy.

While Nizar Rithy, analysts SoeGee Futures, rate, drop in oil prices this time has not changed the long-term trend. According to. he, oil long-term trend is still positive. So he did not see the impact on commodity price movements of energy, such as natural gas, coal or CPO.

The impact will be felt if the trend had turned bearish long term. Examples of when oil prices touched $ 26 per barrel in 2016.

Short-term trends

Nizar said, the burden of the increase in US supplies continue to overshadow the movement of oil prices. Last week, the American Petroleum Institute recorded a weekly US crude stocks rose 4.53 million barrels. Wednesday morning US time, the Energy Information Administration will announce the position of the latest US oil stocks.

Predictions, US oil reserves rose by 1.9 million barel, closing decreasing the supply of 200,000 barrels previous week. Even a Bloomberg survey predicted US crude stocks last week rose by 3 million barrels to 531.2 million barrels so.

Since the beginning of 2017, US oil stocks had increased by about 49 million barrels. "It's bad for the market because it means that OPEC production cuts are not able to make the supply in the global market is reduced," said Nizar.

Not only that, the two largest shipping port in Libya, namely Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, ready to resume operations after a two-week halt due to the military offensive. It will add supply to the oil market. Oil production Libya in February 2017 reportedly increased to 646,000 barrels, compared to the previous month's 621,000 barrels per day.

According to Deddy, investors are still worried about global supplies of crude oil will increase. "If US targets to increase the production of year-end 2017 to 9 million barrels, while OPEC cuts only until mid-year, increase oil supply clear, ".

Today (23/3) Nizar predicts WTI oil price potential technical rebound and move between US $ 46.8 and US $ 48 per barrel. The next week prices will move between US $ 46.5-Us $ 49 per barrel. According to Deddy analysis, today's oil prices weaken and move between US $ 46.71 and US $ 48.41 per barrel. The next week the price moves between US $ 46.39-US $ 48 per barrel.

IN INDONESIAN

Jangka Pendek, Harga Minyak Masih Bearish

Pasar khawatir pembatasan produksi minyak tidak berjalan

Penurunan harga minyak mentah semakin signifikan. Meski sudah turun beruntun dalam lima hari terakhir, analis memprediksi harga emas hitam ini masih bisa melemah dan akan bisa berdampak pada harga komoditas lain.

Per pukul 17.23 WIB, Rabu (22/3), harga minyak jenis light sweet kontrak pengiriman Mei 2017 di New York Mercantile Exchange menurun drastis 1,53% ke US$ 47,56 per barel dibanding hari sebelumnya. Dalam sepekan, harga minyak sudah turun 3,80%.

Penurunan ini mempengaruhi harga komoditas energi lainnya. Harga batubara dan gas alam rupanya turut terkoreksi. Hanya minyak sawit saja yang mampu mempertahankan penguatannya. “Sebagai komoditas strategis, kalau harga minyak rendah, harga komoditas lain juga akan rendah,” kata Deddy Yusuf Siregar, analis Asia Tradepoint Futures.

Per pukul 17.40 WIB kemarin, harga batubara terkoreksi 2,01% ke US$ 77,5 per metrik ton dari hari sebelumnya. Kemudian harga gas alam melemah 1,16% ke US$ 3.057 per mmbtu. Sedangkan harga CPO masih menguat 0.28% jadi RM 2.817 per metrik ton.

    Meski begitu, menurut Deddy, tidak semua komoditas energi akan terus mengekor minyak. Ia menilai hanya harga gas alam yang berpotensi terus melemah sepanjang semester satu tahun ini, mengikuti pelemahan harga minyak. Alasannya musim dingin yang sudah berakhir akan membuat permintaan gas alam global semakin sulit.

    Untuk batubara, Deddy melihat tingginya permintaan dari negara-negara Asia Pasifik, seperti Jepang, Korea Selatan dan Filipina, masih berpeluang mengangkat harga.

Harga CPO juga masih bisa naik. Permintaan CPO biasanya naik jelang bulan Ramadan, karena negara-negara timur tengah meningkatkan stok minyak sawitnya. Konsumsi minyak sawit juga akan mengalami peningkatan. “Penguatan kali ini juga ditopang dari potensi penurunan produksi minyak sawit Malaysia sekitar 1,4% di bulan

Februari," kata Deddy.

Sementara Nizar Hilmy, analis SoeGee Futures, menilai, penurunan harga minyak kali ini belum mengubah tren jangka panjang. Menurut. dia, tren jangka panjang minyak masih positif. Maka ia tidak melihat dampaknya pada pergerakan harga komoditas energi lainnya, seperti gas alam, batubara atau CPO.

Menurutnya, dampak akan terasa jika tren sudah berubah jadi bearish jangka panjang. Contoh ketika harga minyak sempat menyentuh US$ 26 per barel di 2016.

Tren jangka pendek

Nizar menuturkan, beban kenaikan pasokan AS masih terus membayangi pergerakan harga minyak. Pekan lalu, American Petroleum Institute mencatatkan stok minyak mentah mingguan AS naik 4,53 juta barel. Rabu pagi

waktu AS, Energy Information Administration akan mengumumkan posisi stok minyak AS terbaru.

Prediksinya, cadangan minyak AS naik sebesar 1,9 juta barel, menutup penurunan pasokan sebesar 200.000 barel pekan sebelumnya. Bahkan survei Bloomberg memperkirakan, stok minyak mentah AS minggu lalu bisa naik 3 juta barel jadi 531,2 juta barel.

Sejak awal 2017, stok minyak AS sudah naik sekitar 49 juta barel. "Ini buruk bagi pasar karena artinya pemangkasan produksi yang dilakukan OPEC tidak mampu membuat pasokan di pasar global berkurang," tutur Nizar.

Tidak cuma itu, dua pelabuhan pengiriman terbesar di Libia, yakni Es Sider dan Ras Lanuf, siap kembali beroperasi setelah dua pekan terhenti akibat serangan militer. Ini akan menambah pasokan minya ke pasar. Produksi minyak

Libia di Februari 2017 dilaporkan naik jadi 646.000 barel, dibanding bulan sebelumnya 621.000 barel per hari.

Menurut Deddy, investor masih khawatir pasokan minyak mentah global akan kembali meningkat. “Kalau AS menargetkan penambahan produksi akhir tahun 2017 menjadi 9 juta barel, sementara pemangkasan OPEC cuma sampai pertengahan tahun, pasokan minyak jelas bertambah,”.

Hari ini (23/3) Nizar memprediksi harga minyak WTI berpotensi rebound teknikal dan bergerak antara US$ 46,8-US$ 48 per barel. Sepekan ke depan harga akan bergerak antara US$ 46,5-Us$ 49 per barel. Menurut analisa Deddy, harga minyak hari ini melemah dan bergerak antara US$ 46,71-US$ 48,41 per barel. Sepekan ke depan harga bergerak antara US$ 46,39-US$ 48 per barel.

Kontan, Page-7, Thursday, March, 23, 2017