For Japan’s lnpex Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell, Indonesia’s abrupt policy change to make them rewrite their multi-billion-dollar business plan last year may not be their last hurdle, even after more than six years of negotiations aimed at getting the project running.
The companies, at risk of losing the US$l.6 billion they already sank into gas exploration in the Masela block in Maluku, were forced by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in March last year to alter their plan to extract gas from the block using offshore facilities. They must now use onshore facilities instead.
While the companies have finally agreed to move forward with the $19 billion onshore project, the biggest ever in Indonesia, a recent deadlock in the negotiations with the authorities over preliminary facility design have made them the apparent victims of bullying-like tactics.
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan has threatened to cancel a production-sharing contract (PSC) involving the gas-rich block if the contractors do not get the ball rolling on the field’s development. The government has asked Inpex and Shell, which hold' 65 and 35 percent stakes in the block, respectively, to immediately agree to the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s terms for the design during the so-called preliminary front-end engineering design (pre-FEED) phase.
This phase will determine the production capacity of the onshore liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant, the length of pipes, the allocation of gas for local use and the islands where the facilities will be located, among other things. “If Inpex takes too long to conduct the pre-FEED then I will cancel the contract. My patience is wearing thin,” Jonan said . “I have been the energy and mineral resources minister for six months and they still haven’t started.”
Unilaterally terminating the PSC, which will not expire until 2028, will be legally time consuming and the government will be at risk of being pulled into international arbitration if the companies cannot fully accept the termination rationale.
During the pre-FEED negotiations, the ministry has given Inpex and Shell two options for the LNG plant capacity 7.5 mtpa with 474 million standard cubic feet of gas per day (mmscfd) or 9.5 mtpa and 160 mmscfd. The piped gas will be sold to local petrochemical companies.
The Masela block is estimated to be able to produce 1,200 mmscfd and 24,000 barrels of condensate per day for 24 years. However, the ministry has demanded the companies explore other options for onshore designs that will cost them more than $75 million in additional investment with no benefits at all as the options are already estimated to yield less than initially expected.
Exploring other design options will only delay the pre-FEED completion, which normally takes one and a half years. Pre-FEED is an early stage after resource discovery. After the phase, the companies and the ministry are required to negotiate a plan of development (POD), which usually also takes one and a half years at most.
Once the POD is approved, the companies and the ministry proceed to negotiate the final FEED, which includes talks about incentives and taxes. This process can take two to three years before the project construction is offered for open bidding, which takes less than one year. Construction takes four to five years.” Given the complexity of the negotiations, the chances for the block to start producing by 2023, as the government hopes, may diminish.
Inpex spokesman Usman Slamet said the company would continue to work with the government to find a way to expedite the project. “We continue to work together with the government to continue the project as soon as possible. The gas field project needs hard work and large investments in the long term so it needs support from all stakeholders,” he said.
Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) head of energy oil and gas regulations Firlie Ganinduto said Jonan’s comment would only spook investors and he said he hoped the former banker would not harm their business. “The government must honor any agreements already made,” he said
ReforMiner Institute researcher Pri Agung Rakhmanto said that although Jonan’s statement might have been merely “emotional,” it only highlighted the government’s increasing lack of attention toward the upstream energy sector.
“The policies the government has utilized only demonstrated its distrust toward the industry. This may be even more apparent since the sector’s contribution to state revenues has continued to decline,” he said.
Moreover, Pri Agung noted that the government cannot revoke a PSC unilaterally, as any cancellation of a contract must be agreed to by all parties. The Masela morass has drawn the attention of both Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte who recently demanded Jokowi help resolve the project’s bottlenecks.
Jakarta Post, Page-13, Thursday, May, 4, 2017